Should the Sixers offer Joel Embiid a five-year, $150M max extension off 31 games?

How do you balance investing in your future with managing risk?

Joel Embiid’s knee injury is a bummer on a lot of different levels. It’s tough for the Philadelphia 76ers, who were actually winning games and seemed to be going somewhere. It’s tough for their fans, who felt vindicated for sticking it out through “The Process,” only to have it snatched away again. It obviously is terrible for Embiid, who has to go through surgery and rehab. It’s a lot of tests, procedures, pain and frustration. There’s a human cost to injuries we shouldn’t forget. 

But hidden away in there is the fact that, as the Vertical’s Adrian Wojnarowski points out, the Sixers will have to make a decision starting this summer on whether to invest long-term in Embiid. That’s right. He’s already eligible for an extension. And that’s a thorny rabbit hole the Sixers find themselves in. 

Embiid is eligible for a five-year, $150 million extension this summer. That’s an average of $30 million per year, based on 31 games of performance from Embiid. But it was a dominant 31 games. Do you invest in potentially the best center in the league at a price that shows what he means to you? Or do you try and mitigate your risk by lowering the value, a la what the Warriors did with Stephen Curry?

If I’m the Sixers, I’m waiting until restricted free agency. I would aggressively pursue a deal at a discount price for him then, but it gives you another year to evaluate his injury status. If he is unable to come back next season, if he suffers a problem with his foot as a result of compensating for the knee, if he doesn’t look like his dominant self, you want to know that going in. If, in restricted free agency, a team comes out and throws the max at him, you match immediately. 

There are real-world personal conflicts in these situations. If you’re the Sixers, you want to keep your star happy. You want his agent happy with you. You want to manage the situation so that it doesn’t blow up. But you have to consider the risk involved. Attaching yourself to a guaranteed $150 million is just not something that should be done without the utmost confidence that you’re going to get return on value. The Sixers believe in Embiid. They have to. But they also have to be mindful of the many outcomes where this could be dangerous for them. 

Of course, even if they don’t max Embiid, at what point is the risk acceptable? 

What would you do?