As we get closer to the NFL Draft, it's becoming clear that the top four quarterbacks will be off the board by the time pick No. 10 comes around. In fact, there is a good chance four could go in the top-5 picks.
That's how I have it in my latest mock draft (No. 5 for me). I have the Cleveland Browns taking Wyoming's Josh Allen with the first-overall pick, followed by the Buffalo Bills – making a trade to the second spot with the Giants – taking Josh Rosen from UCLA.
Then it's the New York Jets taking USC's Sam Darnold in the third spot and the Denver Broncos taking Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield in the fifth spot.
The likelihood is two of the four will be damn good quarterbacks, while the other two could be busts. That's just the way it is in the NFL, but it's also why teams take chances on quarterbacks high in the draft.
To get to the second spot, the Bills would be giving up the No. 12 pick (which they got from the Bengals) and the No. 22 pick (which they got from Kansas City). They would also likely have to throw in a second-round pick from next year's draft.
That's a big price to pay, but it's what happens when you are a quarterback-starved team.
The only non-quarterback going in the first five of my mock is Penn State running back Saquon Barkley to the Browns in the fourth spot. That's too high for a back for my liking, but he is ultra-talented.
Three weeks to go to the draft and the picture appears to be crystallizing. Get ready for an early run on quarterbacks – no matter which teams will be making the picks.
1. Cleveland Browns
Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming. I am starting to believe the talk in scouting circles that Allen will be the pick. He should be.
2. Buffalo Bills (via mock trade with Giants)
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA. They make the bold move to go up and get their quarterback of the future. This is a move they have to make considering their current roster makeup.
3. New York Jets (from Indianapolis)
Sam Darnold, QB, USC. Take the quarterback and get on with the rebuild. They clearly made the move to get here to draft a quarterback.
4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston)
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State. This is not a move I would make, but I could see the Browns getting the young back to help take the pressure off Allen when he does play.
5. Denver Broncos
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. They gave Case Keenum a two-year deal, which means there isn't a real commitment. They take his replacement here.
6. Indianapolis Colts (from New York Jets)
Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State. The Colts moved down and still land the best edge rusher in this draft , a player who would fill a major need.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame. This would improve the interior of their line in a big way. He will be special.
8. Chicago Bears
Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State. They need to get better at linebacker and some scouts have compared Vander Esch to Luke Kuechly.
9. San Francisco 49ers
Marcus Davenport, OLB-DE, UTSA. They need to get edge-rush help. Davenport is the next highest-rated edge rusher behind Chubb.
10. Oakland Raiders
Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia. They need to get a playmaking linebacker and Smith would be that guy. He could play in the middle of their defense.
11. Miami Dolphins
Vita Vea, DT, Washington. This would be a nice replacement for Ndamukong Suh -- and a lot cheaper. He is a more athletic player than Haloti Ngata, who many compare him to in evaluations.
12. New York Giants (via mock trade with Bills)
Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech. They have had major issues at linebacker for a long time. Edmunds can play inside or outside in their defense.
13. Washington Redskins
Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State. The Redskins would be getting the best cover player in this draft if they were to land Ward.
14. Green Bay Packers
Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB-S, Alabama. They need to get better at corner and they also lost safety Morgan Burnett to free agency. This would make a ton of sense.
15. Arizona Cardinals
Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa. Their corner spot opposite Patrick Peterson needs upgrading and Jackson would help fix that. He is a nice player who has great ball skills to be a good No. 2 corner.
16. Baltimore Ravens
Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina. He is a big, powerful player who is the most complete tight end in this class. The Ravens have a major hole at the spot.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama. He is a player who would help improve them in a big way up front. They need to get stouter against the run.
18. Seattle Seahawks
Derwin James, S, Florida State. With Kam Chancellor's future uncertain and Earl Thomas possibly being traded, they need to get a game-changing young safety.
19. Dallas Cowboys
D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland. They need to get faster outside in their passing game. Allen Hurns, who was signed as a free agent, doesn't fix that.
20. Detroit Lions
Derrius Guice, RB, LSU. At some point they have to get a back who can be their primary runner. They've been trying for a long time since Barry Sanders retired.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (from Buffalo)
James Daniels, C, Iowa. This just makes too much sense. They have to get a center who can push people off the line. Daniels is that guy.
22. New York Giants (via mock trade with Bills (from Kansas City))
Harold Landry, DE, Boston College. They traded away Jason Pierre-Paul, so why not take a young pass rusher to take his place?
23. New England Patriots (from L.A. Rams)
Kolton Miller, T, UCLA. They need a replacement for Nate Solder, who signed with the Giants. Miller would make perfect sense.
24. Carolina Panthers
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama. At some point, they have to get a real threat outside for Cam Newton. Ridley would be that guy.
25. Tennessee Titans
Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama. They lost Avery Williamson in free agency, so landing a replacement would be a good thing to do. Evans will be a three-down linebacker.
26. Atlanta Falcons
Harrison Phillips, DT, Stanford. Phillips is a player who could play inside next to Grady Jarrett on their line. They could also consider offensive line here.
27. New Orleans Saints
Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State. They failed when they landed Coby Fleener, so why not take the best pure pass-catching tight end in the class?
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville. They always seem to be in need of an upgrade at corner. Alexander is a player that scouts have raved about to me.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
Isaiah Wynn, G-T, Georgia. He played both guard and tackle at Georgia, but some scouts think he's too short for tackle. Tom Coughlin once had Leon Searcy at right tackle and he was about the same size as Wynn.
30. Minnesota Vikings
Mike McGlinchey, T, Notre Dame. They still have some questions on the offensive line. After paying Kirk Cousins all that money, they need to protect him.
31. New England Patriots
Taven Bryan, DT, Florida. He has the versatility that the Patriots love from their down player. Bryan would be a perfect fit for the Patriots.
32. Philadelphia Eagles
Orlando Brown, T, Oklahoma. I still think he's going in the first round and the Eagles could take him as their left tackle of the future. Once he gets in shape, he will be a darn good tackle.