NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks
Steven Bisig

Most sports bettors might be paying attention to playoff scenarios and trying to gauge motivations when they're making their Week 17 NFL picks, but divisional rivalry matchups have a tendency to throw people for curveballs. Familiarity helps play into the NFL's "Any Given Sunday" mentality and there a trio of NFL rivalry games on Sunday. Jets vs. Patriots, Browns vs. Steelers and Colts vs. Jaguars all pit teams who are either already eliminated or are on the verge of elimination against teams who have clinched or are on the cusp of clinching, but you can often throw out the records with NFL divisional rivalries. The latest Week 17 NFL odds from DraftKings list the Patriots (-13.5), Steelers (-3) and Jaguars (-6.5) as favorites on the road and the SportsLine Projection Model has locked in its Week 17 NFL best bets, which includes the Jets and Colts covering as home underdogs.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Week 17 NFL best bets for Sunday divisional matchups at DraftKings (odds subject to change): 

  • Jets +13.5 vs. Patriots (-112)
  • Over 33.5 points in Browns vs. Steelers (-115)
  • Colts +6.5 vs. Jaguars (-112)

Jets +13.5 vs. Patriots (-112)

New England still has to defend its spot atop the AFC East against the Bills and can still win the No. 1 seed in the conference. However, the Patriots were far from dominant at home against the Jets in Week 11, tacking on a pair of fourth-quarter field goals to earn a 27-14 win as 12.5-point favorites. Now they'll head to MetLife Stadium, where the Patriots lost 24-3 last season and haven't won by more than five since 2021. The model predicts that the Jets cover in the spread in 57% of simulations. 

Over 33.5 points in Browns vs. Steelers (-115)

The Cleveland defense ranks second in the NFL in yards allowed, but is only 20th in scoring defense and has given up 23 points or more in each of the last four games. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh offense has scored 27 or more in five of the last six games, so it might not take much of a contribution at all from a putrid Browns offense to reach this total. There have been at least 40 combined points scored in seven of the last 10 head-to-head matchups between these franchises. The model predicts that the Over hits in 55% of simulations.

Colts +6.5 vs. Jaguars (-115)

A five-game losing streak leaves the Colts on death's door with regard to their playoff chances, but a win here does keep hope alive. Philip Rivers has looked surprisingly serviceable in two starts since being signed off a high school sideline at 44 years old and the Jaguars have only won once in their last seven trips to Indianapolis. The Colts are also 4-2 against the spread as underdogs this season, which is a big reason why the model predicts that they cover in 55% of simulations.