Playoff Picture: Week 12 scenarios and a look ahead

This is our NFL week 12 Playoff Picture for the 2015 season that includes playoff scenarios for Carolina and New England.

By Joe Ferreira

Nov 24, 2015 at 5:26 pm ET • 6 min read

UPDATE TO CAROLINA SCENARIOS BELOW AFTER THURSDAY GAMES:

After the Panthers win, we can drop out the "tie" scenarios and we are left with the following scenarios for Carolina to clinch a playoff berth:

1) SEA loss or tie + TB loss or tie

2) SEA loss or tie + ATL loss or tie

3) TB loss or tie + MIN loss + ARI loss or tie

4) MIN tie + ARI loss

#3 is a combination of #'s 3 and 4 below with the GB loss factored into the scenario. But…in the case of a MIN tie (which = ATL tie), we are able to drop the need for the TB loss/tie in scenario #5 below.

The Falcons tie means that with ATL-TB game pending, one of those two teams can’t get ahead of the Panthers in the South. That requires that the Seahawks win out which gives the Vikings 4.5 losses (includes tie this week) and gives the Cardinals 4 losses (includes Arizona loss this week in this scenario).

We then have the Vikings with 4.5 losses and game still left with Arizona (4 losses) and Green Bay (4 losses). And since the Cardinals and Packers each other week 16, the Vikings can’t beat them both as at least one would be worse than 5 losses (giving the Cardinals the playoff spot). So Minnesota has to tie one team and beat the other. Whoever the Vikings beat in this scenario between Arizona and Green Bay would have to win the ARI-GB game, thus giving the loser of that game 5.5 losses at minimum and clinching a playoff berth for Carolina. So that leaves us with new scenario #4 above with the Panthers clinching a playoff berth with and ATL-MIN tie and an ARI loss.

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As we enter Week 12 of the 2015 season, we still have leads of at least three games in four divisions (AFC East/West and NFC South/West), which should allow for fairly early division- and playoff-clinching scenarios. However, since we have so many teams that would currently have wild-card spots around .500, we won't see that many early playoff-elimination scenarios this year. In fact, we don't have any teams that can be eliminated from the playoffs in Week 12, leaving 32 teams playoff eligible with five weeks to play. That's the most in the NFL since 2004 and only the second time since 1990 that all teams are alive with five weeks to play (other was 1995 with all 30 teams alive).

Here are your official Week 12 playoff clinching scenarios:

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Carolina clinches a playoff berth:

CAR win + SEA loss or tie + TB loss or tie
CAR win + SEA loss or tie + ATL loss or tie
CAR win + TB loss or tie + MIN loss + ARI loss
CAR win + TB loss or tie MIN loss + GB loss + ARI tie
CAR win + TB loss or tie + MIN tie + GB loss + ARI loss
CAR tie + TB loss + SEA loss
CAR tie + TB tie + SEA loss + ATL loss

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

New England clinches AFC East division:

NE win + NYJ loss or tie
NE tie + NYJ loss or tie + BUF loss or tie
NYJ loss + BUF loss

New England clinches a playoff berth:

NE win + KC loss or tie
NE win + PIT loss + CIN loss
NE tie + NYJ loss or tie
NE tie + KC loss + PIT loss
NE tie + KC loss + HOU loss or tie
NE tie + KC loss + IND loss or tie

On the NFC side, the Panthers can't clinch the division this week with a win and losses by the Falcons and Buccaneers as Atlanta can still sweep Carolina (they play head-to-head in Weeks 14 and 16). There are a number of key matchups this week that could go a long way to determining NFC wild-card teams: MIN-ATL, NYG-WAS, PIT-SEA, TB-IND and CHI-GB.

Although the Cowboys are dead last in the NFC after Week 11, they have some newfound momentum with Romo back at the helm and are only two games back of the division lead with a split in hand against the Giants and two games remaining against the Redskins. This Thursday against the undefeated Panthers will be a huge test for Dallas as they vastly need to improve upon their woeful 2-6 conference record.

The Packers and Vikings appear destined for a slugfest the rest of the way to see who can win the NFC North, but the Vikings have a very tough schedule prior to their rematch in Week 17. The Vikings have road games at the Falcons, Cardinals and Packers and host the Seahawks, Bears and Giants. Could be tough sledding.

The Cardinals' win over the Seahawks two weeks ago was huge as it created a three-game lead with a head-to-head win in hand and a strong 5-1 conference record. Arizona also has a tough remaining schedule but has three of its final four games against the Vikings, Packers and Seahawks all at home and could very well be 11-3 going into those last two home games.

On the AFC side, the Patriots have notched their 13th straight 10-win season, which is incredible (only bested by the 49ers of the '80s and '90s). They will likely lock up the division in the coming weeks and, with a win over the Broncos on Sunday, could lock up a first-round bye and/or home-field advantage fairly soon. Let's see if the injuries catch up to Team Brady though.

The Bengals' two-game slide has given the Steelers renewed hope of a division title, but Cincinnati has a head-to-head win in hand over Pittsburgh and only has two games left with winning teams in the Steelers at home and at the Broncos. The Steelers, currently in the driver seat for the No. 5 seed, have a tough four-game stretch ahead (@SEA, IND, @CIN, DEN) and a surging Chiefs team on their tails that has no games left against winning teams and a tiebreaker over the Steelers by virtue of their Week 7 matchup.

In the AFC South, someone has to win that division, and it's highly unlikely the teams that don't have a wild-card shot, since the Colts and Texans have to play each other and since Houston lost to Kansas City and Indy lost to Buffalo.

The Broncos (otherwise known as the "Fighting Osweilers") have a three-game lead over the Chiefs and a season split already in the books, but Denver hosts the Patriots this week and goes to Pittsburgh in Week 15 before hosting Cincinnati in Week 16. Keep this in mind while knowing the relatively easy road the Chiefs have in front of them.

By the way, if you're interested in crazy scenarios, ask me in the comments section about the NE win + PIT loss + CIN loss playoff clinching scenario above. Many moving parts involved and the Cincinnati loss is there to avoid a scenario where the Bengals have two ties, one involving an NFC team, that allows the Steelers to win the AFC North and keeps the Bengals ahead of the Patriots on conference record if they end up 11-5 overall (8-3-1 vs. 8-4).

Here's to another great week ahead and enjoy another shot at final season seeding predictions based on current play, remaining schedules and tiebreakers:

AFC: 1) Patriots 2) Bengals 3) Broncos 4) Colts 5) Chiefs 6) Steelers

NFC: 1) Panthers 2) Cardinals 3) Packers 4) Giants 5) Seahawks 6) Vikings