Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets want to commit to each other long-term
Fitzpatrick was struggling badly until just a few weeks ago, but back-to-back-to-back strong games have the sides thinking long-term.
By
Jared Dubin
•
3 min read
A few months ago, the Jets didn't think Ryan Fitzpatrick was good enough to start over Geno Smith. One punch (From IK Enemkpali to Geno's jaw) and eight wins later, they appear to be sold that Fitzpatrick is good enough to keep around.
Head coach Todd Bowles has publicly stated that he wants Fitzpatrick back in green next season, and based on his comments to the New York Post on Tuesday, it seems like he believes that Fitzpatrick has turned some sort of corner in his career.
“He’s had success in this league -- maybe not this consistent, but he’s had success -- and he’s at peace with himself,” Bowles said. “I think he’s doing things a lot better. I think he’s a lot calmer. I think he’s not trying to win games by himself, mainly. Obviously, he has talent around him to do some of those things, but most quarterbacks do."
Fitzpatrick is 33 years old and now in his 11th season, but that doesn't seem to bother Bowles. “Guys find homes at different places at different times in their career, and now is his time,” he said.
As for Fitzpatrick's feelings on sticking with the Jets? “I’d love to be back,” he said.
Look... just three weeks ago, Fitzpatrick was in a place where he felt he needed to publicly advocate for himself to keep his starting job. But now that he's thrown for 930 yards and 9 touchdowns against the 31st, 25th, and 21st-ranked passing defenses over the last three games, the two sides think it's wise to arrange a longer-term marriage? That seems hasty.
Fitzpatrick is a journeyman who has had the likes of the Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, and Texans come to the realization that he's not the quarterback for them. Four of those five teams came to that conclusion within two years. Only the Bills stuck with Fitz longer than that.
Why have those teams all reached the same conclusion? Well, because Fitzpatrick's stretches of good play have never lasted all that long (note Bowles alluding to his inconsistent successes), and over larger samples, he's been a clearly below-average quarterback.
Fitzpatrick has thrown at least 200 passes and made at least eight starts in every season since 2008. In that time, his teams have gone 41-57-1 in his starts as he has completed 60.32 percent of his passes for 6.71 yards per attempt. Over that same span, he's been intercepted on 3.23 percent of his pass attempts and recorded a quarterback rating of 81.8. Every single one of those figures (winning percentage, completion percentage, yards per attempt, interception percentage, and QB rating) ranks dead last among the 14 quarterbacks that have thrown at least 3,000 passes since 2008, per Pro-Football-Reference.
Yes, his 2015 numbers look better than that. But until this recent three-game stretch, Fitzpatrick had completed 58.39 percent of his passes for 6.83 yards per attempt, been intercepted on 3.41 percent of his passes and had a QB rating of 81.5 through 10 games. In other words, he had been Ryan Fitzpatrick. But hey, he's succeeded against a few bad pass defenses over the last three weeks.
The Jets are 8-5 and have a decent shot at making the playoffs. For a team that had a poor enough record to pick sixth in the draft last season, that's great progress. They should be proud. But it's important to note that they've done this against the NFL's fourth-easiest schedule (per Pro-Football-Reference's Simple Rating System) this season -- one in which the AFC East has luckily been pitted against the dregs of the AFC South and NFC East. Given the track record of both team and player, it seems likely they'll both regress a bit against a tougher slate next year. Fitzpatrick works fine as a stopgap, but as many teams before the Jets have discovered, it's unwise to count on him as any more than that.
