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It's a critical London derby on Sunday when Chelsea host league leader Arsenal in an English Premier League match at Stamford Bridge. Arsenal (10-1-1) entered the weekend two points clear at the top of the Premier League table, while Chelsea (6-3-3) were in sixth place. The Gunners failed to qualify for the Champions League last year, finishing fifth, while Chelsea finished third. The Blues moved on to the knockout stage in Champions League play and beat Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 in the group-stage finale on Wednesday. The Gunners edged FC Zurich 1-0 in the Europa League on Thursday. In their most recent league matches, Arsenal thrashed last-place Nottingham Forest 5-0 last Saturday, while Chelsea suffered a humiliating 4-1 loss to Brighton the same day. Arsenal have won four of the past five meetings, most recently a 4-2 victory back in April at Stamford Bridge.

Kickoff is set for 7 a.m. ET in London. Caesars Sportsbook lists Chelsea as +160 favorites (risk $100 to win $160), while Arsenal are +170 underdogs in the latest Chelsea vs. Arsenal odds from. A draw is priced at +225 and the over/under for total goals is 2.5. Before locking in any Arsenal vs. Chelsea picks or English Premier League predictions, make sure you check out the best bets from proven SportsLine soccer insider Martin Green. 

After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been stunningly accurate. Green has generated almost $33,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season. He is 63-71-4 on Premier League picks in 2022, going 14-14-1 in his past 29.

Now, Green has broken down the Arsenal vs. Chelsea matchup from every angle and just revealed is picks and EPL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Green's picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Chelsea vs. Arsenal:

  • Chelsea vs. Arsenal spread: Chelsea -0.5 (+145)
  • Chelsea vs. Arsenal over/under: 2.5 goals 
  • Chelsea vs. Arsenal money line: Chelsea +160, Arsenal +170, Draw +225 
  • CHE: They have conceded one goal or fewer in 12 of their past 13 in all competitions 
  • ARS: They have scored multiple goals in one in their past six games in all competitions 
  • Chelsea vs. Arsenal picks: See picks here

Why You Should Back Chelsea 

Playing at home is almost always an advantage for the Blues, as they are 3-2-0 while outscoring opponents 10-6 at Stamford Bridge this season. They took at least one point from 16 of 19 home matches last season and were plus-15 in goal differential. They drew 1-1 with Manchester United in their last EPL match there. Former Arsenal star Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is with Chelsea now and should be eager to beat his old team. He played five seasons with the Gunners, scoring 68 goals in 128 matches. He has three in 11 this season in all competitions.

The Blues have struggled to score at times, but the speed of Raheem Sterling and Kai Havertz can cause problems for defenses. They share the team lead with three goals apiece, and Mason Mount (two goals two assists) is a creative force. The Blues should come in confident after holding the ball for 71% of the match with Zagreb and putting 11 of 15 shots on net. Sterling and Denis Zakaria both scored in the first half. Chelsea have conceded 15 goals and allowed the fourth-fewest shots in the league, though 57 percent of those have been on target.

Why You Should Back Arsenal 

The Gunners will be eager to assert that they are indeed title contenders this year by winning on the road against a huge rival. They have lost just one game, 3-1 to Manchester United at Old Trafford in early September, and no matter the Man City result, they will have the pedal to the floor. Opponents are putting 42.2% of their shots on target against Chelsea, the worst mark in the league, while Arsenal are fourth in total shots (192) and tied for third in shots on net (72). The Blues also will be without top-choice goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga because of injury.

Arsenal have scored 30 goals, and their plus-19 differential is second-best in the league, while Chelsea are plus-2. Gabriel Jesus has cooled off a bit but is due to return to form, as he has five goals and five assists. Fellow Brazilian Gabriel Martinelli also has five goals, and Bukayo Saka (four goals, five assists) and Martin Odegaard (four goals, two assists) also are key pieces to the attack. Arsenal also have been strong on the back end, allowing the second-fewest shots (96) and shots on target (33). Goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale is tied for third with five clean sheets.

How to make EPL and Chelsea vs. Arsenal picks

Green has scrutinized the Arsenal vs. Chelsea match from every angle, and he is leaning Over on the goal total. He also provides two confident best bets, including a strong plus-money play, and has a full breakdown of the match. He's only sharing his Premier League picks here.

So, who wins Chelsea vs. Arsenal in Sunday's English Premier League matchup? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for the Arsenal vs. Chelsea match, all from the European soccer expert who has generated almost $33,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.