Corner Picks: Best bets for Tottenham-Manchester United, Jose Mourinho's Roma against AC Milan and more

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.

By Tom Fornelli

Oct 29, 2021 at 1:03 pm ET • 5 min read

Getty Images

We're on the verge of what could possibly be a historic weekend in soccer. Depending on what happens, we could be witness to the final match of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's tenure at Manchester United. And oh, what a tenure it has been! Nobody will ever forget his mediocre (in the context of Manchester United) results in the Premier League, or that time he led the Red Devils to a runners-up finish in the 2020-21 Europa League. And what about that time United finished second in the Premier League? They were only 12 points behind crosstown rival Manchester City and qualified for the Champions League!

In all seriousness, while Ole Gunnar Solksaer seems destined to pay the price for United's continuing struggles, it's hard to pin the blame solely on him. During his tenure, he's been handed a bunch of players who don't seem to fit together. United spent $100 million on what seemed like a young up and coming attacking superstar in Jadon Sancho over the summer after a year-long courtship, and then followed it up by bringing in old but still extremely talented super star Cristiano Ronaldo to also play in the attacking setup. Now Sancho sits on the bench while the rest of the team tries to mold its entire game around Ronaldo. He's a player who was brilliant once and is still good, but he's no longer good enough to serve as the focal point of a team with the aspirations United has. United is a club with a lot of problems, and Solskjaer is but one of them.

So, will history be made this weekend? It only seems fitting to start this week's picks there. All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Craving even more coverage of the world's game? Listen below and follow ¡Qué Golazo! A Daily CBS Soccer Podcast where we take you beyond the pitch and around the globe for commentary, previews, recaps and more.

Tottenham vs. Manchester United, Sat. 12:30 p.m, NBC

Tottenham face two big questions ahead of this match. The first is, do they remember how to get to their stadium? They haven't played a match at their North London palace since Oct. 3 when they beat Aston Villa 2-1. The other question is, how will they play while there? Spurs have been a bit hit-or-miss at home. While they opened the season with a win over Manchester City, the expected goals (xG) told a different story. They've won three of their four home matches in the Premier League but have managed an xG differential of -0.8 in the process. This is primarily due to their attack being an attack in theory only. Tottenham's 4.7 xG in four home matches ranks 15th of 20 Premier League clubs. A club with Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min should be much better than this, but Harry Kane is playing like a person who would prefer to be anywhere else in the world than where he is.

And it's those problems at Tottenham that led me to find value on a Manchester United team mired in its own mess. For all of this team's problems lately, they're still a dangerous side and one capable of scoring goals. Defensively this team has had problems lately, but that's been against clubs capable of doing damage. I'm not sure this Spurs team fits that description at the moment, so I'm betting on United to save Solskjaer's job for a few more days at least. I mean, after this match, United have to play Atalanta in the Champions League on Tuesday and Manchester City next Saturday, so it's still only a matter of time. The Pick: Manchester United (+140)

Roma vs. AC Milan, Sun. 3:45 p.m, Paramount+

Last week served as an excellent reminder of one of the surest things in sports betting. Any time Jose Mourinho is managing against another club competing for a Champions League place, take the under. Jose will park that bus and then park two or three more busses on top of it. He did so last week against Napoli and achieved the desired result. Roma became the first team to earn a point against Napoli in Serie A during an absolute snoozefest of a 0-0 draw. A Napoli attack that's been one of the most potent and entertaining in Europe couldn't do much of anything.

This weekend, expect the same approach against an AC Milan side sitting tied with Napoli atop the Serie A table. This is just what Mourinho does, and it's who he is. The higher the stakes, the more conservative he becomes. The approach might not be entertaining for fans, but it's been a significant reason for his success as a manager over the years, so let's not overthink it. The Pick: Under 2.5 (+105)

Norwich City vs. Leeds United, Sun. 10 a.m, NBCSN

Well, hello, Old Reliable. I've made a habit of taking overs in Leeds matches since they returned to the Premier League last season, and while they're always a thrill ride, they haven't been as profitable this time around. Leeds have managed to score two goals in only one Premier League match this season, and that was a 2-2 draw against Everton on Aug. 21. So Leeds will be happy to see the Premier League's worst defense on Sunday.

Norwich City is doing what it does best in the Premier League: allowing goals and selling players for a profit before returning to the Championship and beginning the promotion campaign anew. The Canaries have allowed 23 goals through nine matches, the most in the league. They have an xG differential of -11.2, the worst in England by 3.9 goals (Newcastle is at -7.3). Actually, I shouldn't limit this to England. Norwich's xG differential of -1.24 per match ranks 97th among the 98 clubs in Europe's top five leagues. So, yeah, they're bad, and they're the team that will get Leeds out of their scoring rut. Also, Leeds is fully capable of letting Norwich get out of its scoring rut too, which is why betting the over in Leeds matches is so fun. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-135)

Weekend Parlay

Last week's parlay lost for the first time in what felt like 50 years because Everton couldn't manage a point against Watford. This week's parlay will not feature Everton, but it will pay +153.