Corner Picks: Best bets, odds, soccer predictions: Juventus face AC Milan, Arsenal host Liverpool and more

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.

By Tom Fornelli

Oct 7, 2022 at 1:50 pm ET • 4 min read

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It's an interesting time of the season and one that adds new elements we need to consider when placing a bet. I don't know if you've noticed, but there's a match on every second of every day right now. Teams are getting roughly a 30-minute lunch break between matches before being forced to play another.

OK, so maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration, but it doesn't feel too inaccurate. As a Napoli supporter, I'm currently basking in the joy of watching Napoli not only sit atop the table in Serie A with a young, exciting team, but watching them dominate a Champions League group that includes Liverpool and Ajax too. But the problem -- and I use the term problem loosely, as it's not a problem for me, but could be for the team -- is that they're playing a matches so often.

With the World Cup looming and the almighty dollar/pound/Euro still calling the shots, everybody is trying to play every match in as condensed a time as possible. It will affect teams differently, but we don't know how. I believe we'll see multiple "mid-tier" clubs make runs for European spots in leagues following World Cup breaks as the top teams stocked with international talent fresh off the World Cup begin to tire.

I also think we might see Serie A teams perform better in European competition since Italy doesn't have to play in the World Cup, and so many of their teams feature local talent. But that's all stuff that will come later. For now, I'm just trying to figure out which teams may be tired already and how much that should impact my bets for this weekend. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

AC Milan vs. Juventus

Date: Saturday, Oct. 8 | Time: 12 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

It's the Derby Della Delusioni, as AC Milan and Juventus square off in a battle of teams who are not playing nearly as well as they're supposed to. Milan won Serie A last season, but enter the weekend in fifth place behind teams like Atalanta, Udinese and Lazio. As I said in the introduction, this season could see mid-tier clubs making a run for European spots, but I don't expect all three of those clubs to finish above Milan. Besides, Milan is still only three points behind league-leading Napoli.

The same cannot be said for Juventus. Juve are in seventh place with 13 points. They've won only three of seven matches and are playing soccer that is so dull, even the old stereotypes of Italian soccer are offended. While Juve has been outstanding defensively (5 goals allowed on 9.1 xG), they've also been a lot better at home than away. They haven't won any of their three away matches in Serie A and scored only a goal. While they've allowed only two, they have an xG against of 4.8. I expect regression to hit, as Milan have played better than their record shows. Juve struggled to get by Maccabi Haifa Wednesday in the Champions League, while Milan were able to chill while getting spanked by Chelsea at the same time. The Pick: AC Milan (+105)

Brighton vs. Tottenham

Date: Saturday, Oct. 8 | Time: 12:30 p.m. ET | Watch: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)

First of all, let me say how happy I am that Brighton hired Roberto De Zerbi to replace Graham Potter. Not only does it mean the Italian takeover of the Premier League is continuing, but De Zerbi is one of my favorite managers. I enjoyed watching his teams at Benevento and Sassuolo, and I'm glad he's back in a league where I can follow him closely again. Unfortunately for Roberto, he's going against my favorite manager of all this weekend in Antonio Conte, and I have to give Conte the edge here.

Brighton are legitimately good, but I don't think they're as good as they're results have been so far, and they just replaced their manager. The Gulls' new era got off to an exciting start with their 3-3 draw against Liverpool, but some bumps should be expected along the way. Like this weekend, for instance! Tottenham didn't come through for us against Arsenal last weekend, and I have some concerns about them playing their third match on the road in a week, but I think they have a far more talented team and a manager who is familiar with his players already. I also think the price on Tottenham is too tentative, likely because of their Champions League obligations, but Conte does an excellent job of rotating his squad. The Pick: Tottenham (+155)

Arsenal vs. Liverpool

Date: Sunday, Oct. 9 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: USA | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)

It's the return of Arsenal Overs! While I'm tempted to do the same thing I did last week and bet against Arsenal, I'm genuinely concerned that this Liverpool start isn't a fluke. I think this team is washed. Not permanently, but at least until the January transfer window. They look tired and slow and checked out. That said, I don't like the price on Arsenal here, as my numbers say there's absolutely no value to be found there.

So let's bet on goals. Arsenal matches feature a lot of goals! Seriously, Arsenal's Premier League matches have averaged 3.5 goals per match. Liverpool's have averaged 3.86. Liverpool have been worse defensively outside Anfield, not winning a single match in any competition so far. This match could look a lot like last week's 3-3 draw with Brighton, or it could be lopsided one way or the other. Whatever the outcome, it will likely feature at least three goals. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-160)

Weekend Parlay

Real Madrid let us down last week and ended our parlay run, but we're picking ourselves up, dusting ourselves off, and going again. This week it pays +230.