raheem-sterling-getty-images-chelsea.jpg
Getty Images

A reeling Chelsea squad heads to Newcastle's St. James' Park on Saturday for a match with one of the English Premier League's most surprising teams. Newcastle United (7-6-1) finished 11th in the Premier League table last season, but are sitting in third place entering their final match before the World Cup break. The Magpies are on a 10-game unbeaten run in all competitions, including a third-round EFL Cup victory against Crystal Palace on penalties Wednesday. The Blues (6-3-4) were knocked out of that Carabao Cup with a 2-0 loss to Manchester United the same day, and they have lost three straight in league play. The 2021 European champion and perennial league power has lost three straight in league play, most recently a 1-0 setback to league leader Arsenal that was never really competitive. Chelsea won both meetings between the teams last season, including a 3-0 victory at St. James' Park.

Kickoff in Newcastle, England is set for 12:30 p.m. ET. Newcastle are +170 favorites (risk $100 to win $170) in Caesars Sportsbook's latest Newcastle vs. Chelsea odds. Chelsea are +205 underdogs, a draw is listed at +235 and the over/under for total match goals is 2.5. Before making any Chelsea vs. Newcastle picks, make sure you check out the English Premier League predictions and best bets from proven SportsLine soccer insider Martin Green. 

After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been spot-on. Green has generated almost $33,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season. He has his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe. 

Now, Green has broken down the Newcastle vs. Chelsea matchup from every angle and just locked in his Premier League picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Chelsea vs. Newcastle:

  • Newcastle vs. Chelsea spread: Newcastle -0.5 (+130)
  • Newcastle vs. Chelsea over/under: 2.5 goals 
  • Newcastle vs. Chelsea money line: Newcastle +129, Chelsea +205, Draw +235 
  • NEW: Miguel Almiron has seven goals in his past seven EPL matches 
  • CHE: The Blues have outscored Newcastle 13-3 in the past seven matchups 
  • Newcastle vs. Chelsea picks: See picks here

Why you should back Newcastle

The Magpies have one of the league's stingiest defenses, allowing 11 goals, tied with Arsenal for the fewest. Just five of those have been conceded at St. James' Park, where they are 4-3-0. They have started turning draws into victories, scoring four goals in consecutive games while allowing just one in matchups with Aston Villa and Southampton. Miguel Almiron scored in both of those matches and has eight goals to rank fourth in the Premier League. The former Atlanta United winger from Paraguay scored nine goals in his previous four seasons with Newcastle.

Callum Wilson has been a strong No. 2, posting six goals and adding two assists. Newcastle want to make another big statement Saturday after knocking off Tottenham 2-1 three weeks ago. Their only loss in any competition this season was a 2-1 setback to Liverpool at Anfield on the final day of August. Newcastle are plus-17 in goal differential, while Chelsea are plus-1, and three of the Blues' four losses have come away from Stamford Bridge. Goalkeeper Nick Pope has made a big difference for the Magpies and has an 80.8 save percentage (third in EPL).

Why you should back Chelsea 

The Blues are fighting injuries and have had a lot of trouble finishing their chances, but they have had Newcastle's number for years. They have won six of the past seven meetings, including four straight. They won 1-0 at home in the last matchup in March. Chelsea know their backs are against the wall, and they will do everything they can to go into the World Cup break with some momentum. Only five teams have conceded fewer than their 16 goals. 

Chelsea won the Champions League in 2021, and they spent a ton of money in the offseason to bring in players like Raheem Sterling, who has three goals. They also advanced to the knockout round in the UCL this year, finishing the group stage last week at the top of Group E, so they remain dangerous. Kai Havertz also has three goals to share the team lead, and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has one goal in six matches and is always a threat. Mason Mount (two goals, two assists) is the creative force in an attack that is third in the league in possession (58.6 percent).

How to make Chelsea vs. Newcastle picks

Green has scrutinized the Chelsea vs. Newcastle match from every angle. He is taking the Under on the goal total and provides another confident best bet and his full breakdown of the match. He's only sharing his Premier League picks here.

So who wins Newcastle vs. Chelsea? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for Chelsea vs. Newcastle, all from the European soccer expert who has generated almost $33,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.