2016 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Running Back Tiers 1.0
The running back position is becoming a cauldron of frustration and it isn't likely to get better this season. Dave Richard breaks down what you should expect on Draft Day with his first edition of tiers.
By
Dave Richard
•
3 min read
It's a safe bet that there will be no more than 20 running backs with 15-plus touches per week this season. And that's because so many teams are turning to the tandem approach with their rushers.
Bump the touches to 20 per week and the number of backs with such a projection is sliced in half.
Your experience with running backs last year might sway how you draft them this year. Remember: every season is different. Just because a bunch of backs got hurt before doesn't guarantee they'll get hurt again. Most owners will either spend two of their first three or four picks on running backs with the hope they stay healthy or they'll pass on them with their first three or four picks entirely and draft a slew of high-upside talents later on. The tiers cater to whichever strategy you choose.
The first two tiers have running backs with 20-touch potential from week to week along with goal-line duties. That's important, of course. Gurley is my pick to lead the NFL in carries. Pair that with his unreal talent, which we saw last season even when the Rams passing offense was stale and the matchups were tough, and you've got a stud. The guys behind him could easily get taken ahead of him - and will be taken ahead of him in PPR formats.
Of the second grouping the most polarizing name is Ezekiel Elliott. He hasn't played a down in the NFL but is getting a lot of attention. Playing for Dallas will do that for you - the last three seasons have produced a Cowboys rusher with over 1,400 total yards and two Top 10 finishes (Darren McFadden was 13th last season). Elliott should also work the goal line, which gives him a shot at being a great help for Fantasy owners.
When you get to Tiers 3 and 4 you'll find backs with some concerns but ultimately good workloads (at least on paper). Moreover, there's a lot of upside here. A case can be made for every back to dominate their backfields and put up over 1,200 total yards and at least seven scores.
DeMarco Murray might be toxic to some after last season and the drafting of Derrick Henry, but the Titans seem fine with him as their main rusher. Specifically, their offensive system is a better fit for him than Chip Kelly's scheme, plus he's coming off a season where he had less than 230 touches. That's good. Speaking of Kelly, Carlos Hyde now takes over as the lead back in that fast-paced offense in San Francisco. Kelly's rushers experienced some levels of success in Philadelphia and it should help that Hyde has lost weight and is relatively fresh after having only 198 carries and 23 catches over two seasons (21 games).
Once you get into that fifth tier you'll pick from a mix of guys with No. 2 running back potential, not No. 1. There are a lot of guys who will split carries and/or carry major injury risk but they all have notable touchdown potential. That's the differentiator from those guys and the ones in the sixth tier.
