2016 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Running Back Tiers 2.0
Everyone wants the same thing when it comes to Fantasy running backs, but not everyone goes about it the same way. Dave Richard drops theory on drafting rushers.
By
Dave Richard
•
4 min read
Tiers 2.0: Quarterbacks | Wide receivers | Tight ends
It's up to you if you'll let last year's running back meltdown dictate your draft strategy this year, but the fact remains that you need running backs in Fantasy Football. So you might as well think about getting some before the good ones run out.
The majority of Fantasy owners will get at least one rusher before the end of Round 3. Some will ride the trend from 2015 and pass on them until Round 4 (maybe later). A handful won't care about last year and will collect running backs.
The case will be made for each of these strategies, but first, these tiers, separated into groups of two:
Definite starters
| Elite | Near-Elite |
| Round 1 | Round 2 |
| Todd Gurley | Jamaal Charles |
| David Johnson | Eddie Lacy |
| Adrian Peterson | Doug Martin |
| Lamar Miller | Devonta Freeman |
| Ezekiel Elliott | Mark Ingram |
| Le'Veon Bell | |
| Excellent | Very Good |
| Round 3 | Round 4 |
| LeSean McCoy | DeMarco Murray |
| Latavius Murray | Jeremy Hill |
| C.J. Anderson | Carlos Hyde |
| Thomas Rawls |
Potential starters
| No. 2/Upside | No. 3/Less Upside |
| Rounds 5, 6 | Round 7 |
| Matt Jones | Chris Ivory |
| Matt Forte | Giovani Bernard |
| Dion Lewis | Ameer Abdullah |
| Danny Woodhead | Rashad Jennings |
| Frank Gore | Duke Johnson |
| Jeremy Langford | Arian Foster |
| Ryan Mathews | DeAngelo Williams |
| Jonathan Stewart | |
| Melvin Gordon |
Definite backups
The case for drafting running backs early
The running back talent pool will dry up quickly. At some point the players who are left will make you nauseated. But long before that, all of the heavy-workload running backs with goal-line work and potential for 1,500 total yards and 10 or more touchdowns will be history. That'll happen before pick No. 50.
There aren't as many of those running backs as there used to be. Maybe 15 players have a chance at 20 touches per week, and less than half will end up with the crazy huge stats you want. They're **rare.** Like, Gronkowski-at-tight-end rare.
And when are people drafting Gronkowski? Exactly.
Wide receiver is deep -- finding start-worthy players after Round 1, 2 or 3 is cake. You can always wait on a quarterback and you should be able to get away with waiting for a tight end. Running backs tend to score the most Fantasy points of non-quarterbacks, especially in non-PPR leagues. Getting a bunch of guys you believe in and have the potential for a monster year should give your roster an advantage.
The case for ignoring running backs early
Last year was the running back apocalypse. Almost every NFL team dealt with an injury at the position and in many, many cases we all suffered. When it was all said and done, the No. 1 Fantasy running back was a middle- to late-round choice, three of the top-five backs weren't picked in the first three rounds and four Top 12 backs averaged less than 10.0 Fantasy points per game. Ouchie!
It's not wrong to anticipate going through a lot of running backs this season. So why give them special attention early in drafts? Why not target running backs starting in Round 4 (or later) and hoard a bunch of them? Then you can focus on more reliable positions with those first three big picks and then reel off, say, six picks on running backs. Those would be "lottery tickets" who could pull a Devonta Freeman, DeAngelo Williams, Danny Woodhead or David Johnson. Those were some of last year's running back heroes, and none were top-60 picks.
You don't have to nail those picks to be successful (though it would obviously help). There's always the waiver wire to unearth some great players. Just remember, **everyone** will chase rushers on waivers, even the owners who do draft running backs early.
The case for ignoring both ideas
Draft a ton of running backs early, ignore a ton of running backs early ... it's all silly. Are you really going to pass up a great player just because he's a running back? Or are you really going to over-reach for a player just because he's a running back? Come on.
A great alternative -- and this is what the majority of people who draft will do -- is to plan on taking one running back over the first three rounds. You're getting one of those 20-touch, goal-line working, Fantasy point hog hopefuls **and** picking up some quality receivers. This balanced approach still offers the chance to draft a ton of mid-round running backs (everyone's going to do that anyway), land two top-shelf pass catchers and at least have a chance as a rusher who can anchor your squad.
The case for flexibility
Let's really get crazy and take it a step further -- why not draft with the **intention** of taking just one rusher with your first three picks but be aware of another running back falling into your lap? You might have one already and you might intend to take a receiver with your next pick but see a running back who shouldn't have made it back to you still on the board.
Would you let that great value walk into someone else's lovin' arms? That's your call, but smart Fantasy owners are willing to be flexible with their draft plans if it means stealing players on Draft Day.
That's the ultimate lesson with drafting running backs -- be flexible. Not just in Round 1 -- especially not just in Round 1 -- but for the whole draft. You won't want to let good values pass at any position, but one as fickle as running back, it's foolish to let a good running back sneak past you.
