Making sense of wasteland that is now baseball's Hot Stove pitching market
With Stephen Strasburg signing an extension with the Nationals, Clay Buchholz and Andrew Cashner represent the best the 2016-17 free agent pitching class has to offer.
By
Mike Axisa
•
7 min read
Monday night, while he was in the middle of a start, news broke Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals agreed to a seven-year contract extension. The deal is worth $175 million and includes multiple opt-outs and heavy deferrals. The extension was made official Tuesday.
Strasburg, who is still only 27 even though it feels like he's been around forever, is 5-0 with a 2.76 ERA (152 ERA+) so far this season. He's struck out 58 in 49 innings. Contrary to what seems to be popular belief, Strasburg has been an outstanding major leaguer. Since 2010 he is 27th among pitchers in WAR (+15.3) despite being 61st in innings (825 2/3).
It's easy to understand why the Nationals would want to extend Strasburg. He's really good and they have a nice core that looks poised to contend both this season and the next few seasons. Max Scherzer and Strasburg will front the rotation with Joe Ross and top prospect Lucas Giolito behind them while Bryce Harper anchors the lineup. Nice collection of talent there.
Strasburg was, by far, the best starting pitcher scheduled to become a free agent after the season. Now that he's off the board teams in need of rotation help will have to sort through second tier options and reclamation projects. Here's a preview of the upcoming Strasburg-less free agent pitching class.
BEST AVAILABLE
Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
Andrew Cashner, Padres
Rich Hill, Athletics
Mat Latos, White Sox
Yep, that is the best of 'em. Buchholz and Cashner have flashed excellence in the past but have not sustained any sort of success year-to-year. They're more potential than results, even with their 30th birthdays right around the corner. Same with Latos, albeit to a lesser extent. He's pitched quite well early this year.
Hill is an interesting case since returning to MLB as a starter last season. He has a 202 ERA+ with 82 strikeouts in 66 2/3 innings. He's been marvelous. Hill's free agency will be complicated because he has basically no track record as a starter and he's already 36. As long as he keeps pitching like this though, Hill is going to generate a lot of interest. It wouldn't surprise me if he ends up with a two-year deal at this pace.
DEPTH ARMS
Jhoulys Chacin, Braves
Jesse Chavez, Blue Jays
Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies
Ivan Nova, Yankees
Chacin, Hellickson, and Nova have all seen their stock take a hit in recent years due to injury and poor performance. Chavez was a solid starter for the A's from 2014-15, but he is now working as a short reliever for the Jays. He's someone a team could look to sign for reliever dollars and transition back to the rotation.
There is a little bit of upside in this group. Chacin is only 28 and both Hellickson and Nova are 29. There's still some hope they could return to their previous level of performance as they get further away from their injuries. No team will sign these guys expecting them to anchor the rotation. They're lottery tickets for the back-end of the staff, basically.
ONE-YEAR VETERANS
Bartolo Colon, Mets
John Danks, White Sox
R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays
Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies
Scott Feldman, Astros
Edwin Jackson, Marlins
Colby Lewis, Rangers
Jake Peavy, Giants
Jered Weaver, Angels
Alfredo Simon, Reds
Ryan Vogelsong, Pirates
I expect the pitchers in this group to be popular targets this offseason. Lots of teams are going to be wary of handing Buchholz or Cashner big money, so they could instead turn to this collection of veterans likely to sign one-year deals. Some, obviously, are more desirable than others.
Colon and Dickey could possibly retire, thinning this group out. I also have a hard time seeing Lewis leaving the Rangers and Weaver leaving the Angels, though it is possible. Simon and Vogelsong could find themselves forced in retirement. They might not drum up much interest at this point of their careers.
De La Rosa may be the hidden gem in this group, even at 35. He's off to a miserable start this season (10.18 ERA!), but, from 2013-15, he pitched to a 114 ERA+ with the Rockies. Pretty darn good for a guy playing his home games in Coors Field. He's someone who might surprise and exceed expectations at sea level.
RECLAMATION PROJECTS
Brett Anderson, Dodgers
Doug Fister, Astros
Cory Luebke, Pirates
C.J. Wilson, Angels
Consider this the "formerly good pitchers" group. Anderson (back surgery) and Wilson (shoulder) are hurt right now, and Luebke (Tommy John surgeries) has spent most of the last five years hurt. Fister was hurt last year and is pitching poorly this year.
You can talk yourself into believing these guys have upside and can pitch closer to the middle of your rotation than the back if things break right. Sign them cheap, then get a solid performance. Teams look for these pitchers all the time and a few work out. Most don't.
Anderson is the biggest name here because he is still only 28, and he was pretty darn good with the Dodgers last year. His injury history is long and scary, however. Fister pitched at something close to ace level for a few years with the Tigers, but right now he looks nothing like that pitcher. Someone is going to bet some cash he can turn back the clock in 2017.
OPT-OUT DECISIONS
Scott Kazmir, Dodgers (can walk away from two years, $32 million)
James Shields, Padres (can walk away from two years, $44 million)
Opt-outs are the new thing these days. Kazmir has not been good this season (70 ERA+) though I think he still might be able to top $32 million in free agency this winter. His performance the rest of the season will decide that. If he pitches like normal Scott Kazmir, I think he'll opt-out and instantly become the best available free agent starter. If he continues to struggle, he might keep the guaranteed cash.
Shields is a different story. He's going to turn 36 after the season and his home run rate has been alarmingly high since arriving in San Diego (1.4 HR/9). His walk rate (3.7 BB/9) is much higher than his career norm too. Shields is still a Grade-A workhorse, which makes him appealing. He's also at the age where all those innings are a detriment. That's a lot of wear and tear. Right now, I would be surprised if he exercised the opt-out, especially since he's a Southern California guy pitching near home.
OPTION DECISIONS
Josh Collmenter, Diamondbacks ($2.25 million mutual option)
Jaime Garcia, Cardinals ($12 million club option)
Gio Gonzalez, Nationals ($12 million club option)
Jason Hammel, Cubs ($10 million club option)
Derek Holland, Rangers ($11 million club option)
Kris Medlen, Royals ($10 million mutual option)
Matt Moore, Rays ($7 million club option)
Charlie Morton, Phillies ($9.5 million club option)
Jonathon Niese, Pirates ($10 million club option)
CC Sabathia, Yankees ($25 million vesting/club option)
Edinson Volquez, Royals ($10 million mutual option)
As always, contract option decisions are going to drastically alter the quality of the free agent class. As it stands right now the Garcia, Gonzalez, Hammel, and Moore options are no-brainers for the team. Holland may be in this group as well. Those will be picked up. Even if the team doesn't want the player, they'll exercise the option and trade him. Those salaries are beyond reasonable.
Mutual options are rarely exercised. They're a way for teams to push money to next year's budget through buyouts more than anything. Collmenter and Volquez will decline their half of the mutual option and the Royals will probably decline their half of Medlen's option, making them free agents. Volquez will become one of the best starters available once this happens. How about that?
Sabathia's vesting option is based on the health of his shoulder, and so far, so good. His arm is healthy. It's his knee that has been giving him problems. Morton will miss the rest of the season following hamstring surgery, so I have a hard time seeing that option picked up. He's missed a lot of time with injuries. Niese has struggled this year (72 ERA+) but I think he's still a $10 million pitcher. The Pirates could find a trade suitor at the price.
The upcoming free agent market looks weak with Strasburg now staiying in Washington. I mean, it was weak even with Strasburg, but now the clear cut No. 1 free agent is off the board.
The crazy thing is this free agent class could get even worse. Some more of these pitchers could sign extensions between now and the end of the season. Latos, Nova, De La Rosa, Colon, Lewis, and Anderson strike me as extension candidates.
This offseason is going to be a bad time to be team in need of pitching. The free agent market doesn't have much to offer, and that means the trade market will be very competitive.
