Carl Frampton vs. Leo Santa Cruz: Predictions, fight card, start time, odds
Leo Santa Cruz gets his chance at revenge against the only man to defeat him: Carl Frampton
Forget buyer's remorse.
Leo Santa Cruz has champion's regret.
The 10-year pro had copped title belts at 118, 122 and 126 pounds prior to a match with Carl Frampton last summer, and was already charting a course for future weight conquests when the plans were abruptly scuttled by the Northern Irishman's majority decision victory at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
And it wasn't long before he began feeling the frustration.
"After the fight was over," Santa Cruz told CBS Sports. "I knew that I was fighting his height and I wasn't using my reach. I was leaning in there with him and banging, brawling, and he had the advantage because he's a lot shorter than me. If we fight inside, his arms are shorter and his hands get there before, so my thing I have to do is use my reach from the outside because I'm longer and my hands are going to get there faster. That's what I realized, right after the fight."
Problem was, the realization was too late to save either his unbeaten record -- he'd entered the fight at 32-0-1 -- or the WBA featherweight championship he'd held for 11 months and successfully defended once. It was his first loss in 12 title fights stretching back to his days with the IBF's belt at 118 and the WBC's bauble at 122, and set up a rematch in which he expects to correct his strategic errors.
That comes Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas when Frampton, now 23-0 and ruling a second weight class after his own 17-month run at 122 pounds, makes his third U.S. appearance in four fights after beginning his career on familiar turf in Northern Ireland, England and Wales.
The two arrived in Las Vegas on Wednesday and will weigh in on Friday.
It's a fair bet Santa Cruz, who possesses a two-and-a-half-inch height advantage and a seven-inch edge in reach, will spend many of the final hours rehearsing how to flip the physical script.
"I could have used my distance and kept him on the outside and been a lot quicker with my feet and faster with my hands," he said. "I was throwing 1-2 and I was staying there with him, but what I think I have to do is throw 1-2-3 and then use my distance, stay on the outside and not let him catch me with those big shots."
Frampton was awarded nine of 12 rounds on one judge's card and eight of 12 on another, while a third saw it dead even at six rounds apiece.
CBS Sports agreed with the dissenting judge, Guido Cavalleri, and scored it 114-114.
Santa Cruz suggested in the immediate aftermath that he'd earned the verdict, but he's approached the return bout with no ill will toward the scorers who cost him his belt.
Instead, he said, it all serves as fuel for a restoked motivational fire.
"I still feel the same, like the loss is not there," he said. "I think I won. I'm still the same fighter. The only thing is that I don't have that 0. He gave me that first loss and I want to avenge that first loss and I want to give everything I've got and use everything in my hands to get that revenge and get the victory against Carl Frampton. Doing that will be like erasing that first loss. But I don't feel worse because I'm not undefeated. Even the best lose. It a matter of time. That first loss is going to come.
"The loss came against a great fighter, but nothing happened to me. As long as I have the support of the fans, that's all I want. I want to go out there and give great fights for the fans, so it doesn't matter if I have a loss or not."
The Frampton-Santa Cruz encore will highlight a two-bout Showtime card airing Saturday at 10 p.m.
The 126-pound match is preceded first by a 135-pound championship encounter between unbeaten WBC belt-holder Dejan Zlaticanin and former two-division titlist Mikey Garcia, who's already earned titles at 126 and 130 pounds but fought just once in the last three years due to injuries and promotional wrangling.
Now 29, he was on most major pound-for-pound lists before he was shelved.
"Had I been fighting during my layoff, I would probably be close to retiring by now," Garcia said.
"The time allowed me to go enjoy life and my family and come back to the sport with a new mindset and ready to work. There are still a lot of things that I want to accomplish in this sport. This would be my third division with a world title. I would obviously want to unify titles or go after (a) title at 140 pounds. I'm going to do whatever it takes to elevate myself in this sport."
Frampton is a slim main event favorite according to the numbers guys at sports.Bovada.lv. It'll take a $160 wager to return $100 on him, while a $100 outlay on Santa Cruz would return $130 for an upset.
The challenger is labeled second in the world at 126 pounds by the Independent World Boxing Rankings, which list all fighters in a weight class regardless of what title belts they hold.
Frampton is No. 1 in the same rankings.
Frampton is 9-0 in fights against the top 50 in the weight classes in which he's competed, while, by the same criteria, Santa Cruz's record is 14-0.
Frampton was unranked at 126 pounds before the first fight.
Ring Magazine lists Frampton as the world's No. 10 pound-for-pound fighter and its No. 2 featherweight behind Gary Russell Jr., while Santa Cruz is No. 4 at featherweight and not included in the pound-for-pound rankings.
"I believe that I'm going to face a very tough Leo Santa Cruz, as always," Frampton said.
"This is going to be another difficult fight, but if I make the adjustments I've had to in the gym, I'll win the fight more convincingly."
How does Frampton win?
He's not as tall and has shorter arms, but Frampton will enter the ring Saturday with the same advantages in hand and foot speed that allowed him to succeed the first time around. He was consistently able to elude Santa Cruz's pressure and counter his looping shots, so unless Santa Cruz is able to land a game-changing punch he may be headed for the same frustrating fate.
How does Santa Cruz win?
The California-based Mexican said he was surprised by Frampton's refusal to engage in a slugfest and bamboozled by the then-challenger's ability to control distance and finish exchanges with flashy shots. He suggests using his longer frame from distance and throwing more combinations will offset those issues and force Frampton to press the fight against a bigger man. If it works, he'll find more success.
Prediction: Frampton by decision
It was hardly a rout, but -- whether he won the fight clearly or merely stayed even -- Frampton did display a skill set that's going to give Santa Cruz difficulty no matter how many times they meet.
And now that he's been in with the bigger man, absorbed his power and seen that he can dish out a rattling shot of his own, it'll be a better and more confident Frampton as champion. Look for him to employ the same strategy as the initial go-round, using the same speed and movement to offset Santa Cruz's smothering pressure and consistently win exchanges. By the end of the night, he'll have done enough to clearly win seven or eight rounds - so call it 115-113 or 116-112.















