Joshua vs. Klitschko fight: Predictions, date, picks, card, odds, tale of the tape
Saturday's title fight in London on offers opportunity for passing of the torch at heavyweight
If the oddsmakers are correct, Saturday's heavyweight title bout between Anthony Joshua and Wladimir Klitschko presents boxing fans with just about the cleanest passing of the torch opportunity the division could imagine.
Joshua (18-0, 18 KOs), the unproven yet powerful star on the rise, will look to ascend the heavyweight throne in front of 90,000 home fans at London's Wembley Stadium (Showtime, 4:15 p.m. ET, HBO replay at 11 p.m. ET) against the former champion Klitschko (64-4, 53 KOs), who reigned uncontested from 2006 to 2015.
Luckily for Klitschko, boxing matches -- particularly those contested in the heavyweight division -- aren't won and lost on paper or with betting odds. So Klitschko, 41, will look to rely on his vast experience and powerful right hand in hopes of regaining all that was lost in his 2015 upset defeat to Tyson Fury.
Joshua, 27, a former sparring partner of Klitschko, will look to fulfill all of the early promise and expectations heaped upon him after winning gold for England at the 2012 Olympics.
Let's take a look at how these heavyweights match up:
Joshua vs. Klitschko: tale of the tape
Fighter | Anthony Joshua | Wladimir Klitschko |
Nickname | AJ | Dr. Steelhammer |
Titles | IBF heavyweight | None |
Age | 27 | 41 |
Height | 6-foot-6 | 6-foot-6 |
Reach | 82-inch | 81-inch |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodoz |
Hometown | Hertfordshire, England | Kiev, Ukraine |
Best wins | Dillian Whyte (TKO 7, 2015), Dominic Breazeale (TKO 7), Eric Molina (TKO 3) | Samuel Peter (UD 12, 2005), Ruslan Chagev (TKO 9, 2009), Kubrat Pulev (KO 5, 2014) |
Notable losses | None | Corrie Sanders (TKO 2, 2003), Lamon Brewster (TKO 5, 2004) |
What's at stake?
Joshua will be making the third defense of the IBF belt he captured in April 2016 by blowing away undeserving titleholder Charles Martin inside of two rounds. The two fighters will also compete for the vacant WBA title, Klitschko's former belt, that was forfeited by Fury last October to focus on recovery from substance abuse and mental health issues.
The victor will also be considered the best heavyweight in the world -- at least for the moment, as talented young (but still yet unproven) unbeaten titleholders Deontay Wilder and Joseph Parker will each be looking for eventual unification fights. There's also veteran undefeated slugger Luis Ortiz, who has eyes on crashing the party.
But in terms of legacy, a victory for Klitschko would put to rest any notion that his upset loss to Fury exposed him as a front-runner of sorts who feasted on a historically weak division and crumbled when he faced a difficult challenge. It would also be an incredible capstone to his 21-year career, aligning him with Muhammad Ali and Evander Holyfield as the only men to win a piece of the heavyweight title three times.
A win for Joshua -- already a massive and handsomely paid star in Great Britain -- could trigger the start of worldwide fame and an eventual conquering of America. Since his amateur days, Joshua has been pegged as the sport's "next big thing" and a savior to the once great heavyweight division. This is the kind of victory he needs to validate such claims.
Who has the edge?
1. Power: Joshua has knocked out everyone he has stepped in the ring with as a professional and has shown a proven ability to alter the course of fights win one punch. He can punch with both hands and has good finishing instincts, mixing hard hooks with tight uppercuts. Klitschko, meanwhile, has consistently stopped almost every opponent willing to fight aggressive enough to win. He added a sneaky left hook late in his career (which he used to finish Kubrat Pulev) and has always packaged a stiff jab with one of the hardest and accurate right hands in division history. Advantage: Even
2. Speed: Having quick hands for a heavyweight has long helped Klitschko, along with his strong amateur pedigree and controlling jab, to outbox opponents he was unable to finish. But the former champ is now 41 and going up against an explosive athlete the kind he hasn't faced in his career. Joshua looks like he could walk onto an NFL field today and compete physically. His footwork and overall technique may still be a work in progress but he closes distance quickly and can explode with quick power shots. Advantage: Joshua
3. Defense: After suffering a trio of knockout defeats, the kind that would've effectively ended the careers of similar fighters who came onto the scene with the same hype, Klitschko's reinvention was built upon defense. The late Hall of Fame trainer Emanuel Steward recreated Klitschko as an upright defensive boxer who relies on his great size to control distance and minimize danger. When opponents are able to slip underneath his dangerous jab, Klitschko has mastered the art of clinching and leaning to wear his foes down and limit them to one punch. Joshua is more offensive than he is protective and even at an advanced age, Klitschko's safety first mentality and experience gives him the edge. Advantage: Klitschko
4. Technique: A gold medalist at the 1996 Olympics for Ukraine, Klitschko has always had his boxing ability to get him out of trouble. While Joshua is equally decorated as an amateur, he isn't the same fighter as Klitschko in terms of his pure boxing IQ and ability to use space and accuracy to control his opponents. Despite his strength and speed, Joshua is still more plodding and robotic than even Klitschko, who has also done well to retain his polish and timing with age. Advantage: Klitschko
5. Intangibles: The type of fighters who have given Klitschko the most fits are those with size and skill. Not so much those with simply power. The problem here is that Joshua has all of the above -- he's just as strong, is the same height and has a longer reach. He's also 14 years younger and still entering his prime. Klitschko may have advantages in experience, including performing in front of such a large crowd in a big stadium, but he also has his own questions to answer from a lifeless loss to Fury in which he was gun shy and lacked urgency. Hunger won't be an issue for Joshua, whose edge in youth is hard to overlook. Advantage: Joshua
Before we get to the picks, here's how the full card breaks down with the latest odds from Bovada.
Joshua-Klitschko fight card, odds
Favorite | Challenger | Weightclass |
Anthony Joshua (c) -260 | Wladimir Klitschko +200 | Heavyweight title |
Scott Quigg -3000 | Viorel Simion +1100 | Featherweight |
Katie Taylor -5000 | Nine Meinke +1400 | Women's lightweight |
Luke Campbell -700 | Darelys Perez +450 | Lightweight |
Prediction
How the fight is officiated could play a huge role, depending on how much referee David Fields polices Klitschko's constant holding, leaning and pushing off. Joshua has said he isn't worried, and plans to mix in uppercuts and hooks to the body in close to discourage Klitschko from doing so. As long as Klitschko isn't provided an inherent advantage, the fight comes down to whether his jab can control and frustrate Joshua, while protecting his own chin for 12 rounds. Despite how refreshed Klitschko claims to be after a 17-month layoff, that's a tall order to ask of anyone against someone as explosive as Joshua.
If Klitschko can't fend him off, he'll need to fight his way out of trouble and be willing to punch with Joshua at close range in a give and take. It's a scenario that's frankly hard to imagine considering Klitschko hasn't been forced to do so in 12 years since getting up off the deck three times to outlast Samuel Peter in their first fight. The version of Klitschko 2.0 hasn't fixed his early chin problems as much as he has just avoided getting into heavy exchanges thanks to size, defense and blatant holding. But those fights largely came against limited opponents. He simply won't have that luxury against Joshua.
That doesn't mean Klitschko lacks the power to end the fight early. In fact, in his favor is the fact that Joshua's chin is still largely untested. He responded well to getting rocked by Dillian Whyte in 2015 before coming back to finish him. But he hasn't been forced to fight back and rally after being in any kind of serious trouble.
Love boxing? Be sure to subscribe to the In This Corner with Brian Campbell podcast where he breaks down everything you need to know in the world of boxing.
This has all the makings of being an exciting fight considering the power of both fighters and the questions collectively about their respective chins. If the fight goes the full 12 rounds it would have to favor Klitschko, who by mere virtue of seeing the final bell, likely would've proved able to slow down the pace of the fight and out guile his younger opponent. But the calm and cool Joshua seems far too ready for this moment despite just 18 professional fights.
Klitschko may have success early by boxing and disciplining Joshua at times when he attempts to close distance. But the young champion will eventually do so, putting Klitschko in a position to have to fight for his name and legacy in a way we haven't seen him do in so long, more than a year after he was unable to do just that against Fury with his historic reign on the line.
Pick: Joshua by sixth-round knockout
















