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The Long Island University Sharks begin their 2023-24 men's college basketball schedule on Friday afternoon. LIU hosts the Air Force Falcons at Steinberg Wellness Center in Brooklyn. It is the earliest matchup of the day in Division 1, and Air Force is making its second appearance of the season. The Falcons lost their opener to Portland State, and Air Force looks to improve on a 14-18 overall performance from the 2022-23 season.

For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Falcons as 6.5-point favorites for this 1 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 131.5 in the latest SportsLine consensus Air Force vs. Long Island odds. Before making any LIU vs. Air Force picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It went 85-55 on all top-rated college basketball picks last season, returning more than $1,600 for $100 players. Anyone who followed it saw huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Air Force vs. LIU and revealed its CBB picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for LIU vs. Air Force:

  • Air Force vs. Long Island spread: Air Force -6.5
  • Air Force vs. Long Island over/under: 131.5 points
  • Air Force vs. Long Island money line: Air Force -264, Long Island +216
  • Air Force: The Falcons are 18-15 against the spread in the last 33 games
  • Long Island: The Sharks are 8-17-1 against the spread in the last 26 games
  • Air Force vs. Long Island picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Air Force can cover

Air Force began the season with a strong defensive performance against Portland State. The Falcons allowed only 36% shooting and 27% from 3-point range in that game, with Portland State producing a meager five assists in the game. Last season, Air Force was in the top 10 of the country in 3-point accuracy allowed (29.3%), and the Falcons blocked 11% of field goal attempts. Air Force was also above-average in defensive rebound rate (71.4%) and assists allowed (10.1 per game), and the Falcons have a very advantageous matchup against Long Island's offense. 

The Sharks finished last season with the worst offensive efficiency in the country, scoring only 87.5 points per 100 possessions. Long Island was in the bottom 10 of the nation with a 22.7% turnover rate, and the Sharks further lost the possession battle with an ugly 24.7% offensive rebound rate. From there, Long Island had historically poor shooting numbers, including 44.8% on 2-point attempts, 32.0% on 3-point attempts, and only 66.6% on free throw attempts last season. See who to back at SportsLine. 

Why LIU can cover 

Long Island will open its season Friday and will do so in a friendly home environment. The Sharks also took full advantage of the free throw line last season, averaging 18.4 attempts per game, and Air Force yielded 29 free throw attempts in its season opener. Long Island also shares the ball well under Rod Strickland, averaging more than 14 assists per game and generating an assist on more than 56% of field goals last season. Air Force was also below-average in 2-point defense (51.9%) and turnover creation rate (17.1%) last season. 

On the other side of the floor, Long Island was above the national average in preventing 3-point attempts in 2022-23, and Air Force shot only 25% from 3-point distance in the season opener. The Falcons were also 9 of 19 at the free throw line, an ugly ratio, and Air Force was very poor on the offensive glass last season. Air Force grabbed only 22.3% of its own missed shots and had 11.0% field goal attempts blocked a year ago. See who to back at SportsLine. 

How to make LIU vs. Air Force picks

The model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 140 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Air Force vs. LIU, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that went 85-55 on its top-ranked college basketball picks last season, and find out.