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The Memphis Tigers (9-5) have a chance to win four consecutive American Athletic Conference games for the first time in three years when they visit the SMU Mustangs (8-3) on Thursday. The Tigers lost both matchups to SMU last season but took the first step toward answering that sweep with a 76-72 victory in Memphis on Tuesday night. It marked the third straight meeting between the schools that was decided by five points or fewer.

Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Moody Coliseum in University Park, Texas. The latest Memphis vs. SMU odds from William Hill Sportsbook list the Mustangs as four-point favorites. The over-under, or total number of points expected, is set at 142.5, up half a point from the opening line. Before making any SMU vs. Memphis picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,300 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Memphis vs. SMU. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for SMU vs. Memphis:

  • Memphis vs. SMU spread: Mustangs -4
  • Memphis vs. SMU over-under: 142.5 points
  • Memphis vs. SMU money line: Tigers +160; Mustangs -190
  • MEM: The Tigers are 5-9 against the spread this season 
  • SMU: Coach Tim Jankovich will miss his third straight game after testing positive for COVID-19.

Why Memphis can cover 

Freshman center Moussa Cisse was voted the preseason AAC Rookie of the Year and is starting to live up to the hype. Following a four-game stretch in which he scored a combined 10 points, Cisse turned in his third straight impressive performance with a double-double (10 points, 10 rebounds) vs. SMU. In his last three games, the reigning AAC Freshman of the Week is averaging 12.3 points and 9.7 boards.

Sophomore Landers Nolley II, named to the league's weekly honor roll on Monday, also continued his solid play with 12 points against the Mustangs, reaching double figures for a team-high ninth game. He is 8 of 15 from behind the arc over the past three contests. Guard Alex Lomax, who contributed a team-high 14 points off the bench vs. the Mustangs, is averaging 5.3 assists in his past three games.

Why SMU can cover

Senior guard Tyson Jolly, a preseason All-ACC selection, had a modest 2020-21 debut with five points vs. UCF on Saturday but came off the bench to score 15 points on 6-of-8 shooting at Memphis. He averaged 14.5 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.3 assists while starting every game last season, leading the team in scoring 11 times. One of the team's top 3-point shooters in 2019-20, he was 3 of 5 from distance on Tuesday.

SMU should be better in the rematch -- it leads the conference in both scoring (78.5 points) and field goal percentage (47.1). The Mustangs are second in the AAC in free-throwing shooting percentage at 74.1 percent but they got to the line only six times Tuesday, converting five. Conversely, the Tigers are last in that category (60.9) and it almost hurt them with a dismal 12-of-25 showing in Tuesday's win.

How to make Memphis vs. SMU picks

The model is leaning over on the total, projecting both teams combine for 143 points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that is hitting in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins SMU vs. Memphis? And which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.