Where Henry Ellenson ranks vs. other recent Marquette NBA Draft picks
Ellenson may not match Dwayne Wade or Jimmy Butler, but stacks up vs. Jae Crowder
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3 min read
With the NBA Draft now less than a month away, we're taking a look at a number of projected or likely first-round picks and comparing them to those who came before -- at the very same school. The comparison game is a go-to among fans, scouts, GMs and scribes, but for fun, we're going to narrow the gap to only looking at specific schools.
Marquette has become the surprise school in terms of producing NBA talent. In fact, you could argue MU doesn't really get its due overall. The program has managed 19 or more wins in all but two of the past 15 seasons. Now it has a great lottery prospect in Henry Ellenson, who was seen as a one-and-done prospect from the get-go. He didn't disappoint. Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons took up most of the Frosh of the Year attention in 2015-16, but Ellenson was a firm No. 3 pick in the race for most of the season.
Scouts were in on him early. In fact, if he goes anywhere later than No. 10, it'll likely end up being terrific value. For what he does, I could see a No. 5 pick being worth it, because he doesn't appear to be a high-risk type of pick.
But how does Ellenson measure up against previous Marquette players? The school has a couple of studs and a couple other really nice pros over the past decade-plus. Ellenson has the style to be the third-best player to come out of MU this decade, I think. Let's look deeper.
(Offensive rating and Player Efficiency Rating (PER) are from RealGM's player database. All measurements are via Draft Express' database. Height is measured with shoes on.)
Marquette freshman Henry Ellenson
Dossier
Height: 6 feet, 11.5 inches
Weight: 242
Wingspan: 7 feet, 2.25 inches
Standing reach: 9 feet
Max vertical reach: Not measured
Career college stat line: 17.0 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 1.8 apg, 106.3 ORtg, 20.9 PER
Projected range in NBA draft: 7-15
Body-wise, his measurements most closely resemble: Steve Novak
Novak was 6-foot-10 in shoes. Height-wise, he's the only player to come out of Marquette in the past 20 years who compares to Ellenson. His game is somewhat similar, but these are very different prospects. Novak was an early-second-round pick in 2006. Ellenson is more physical and talented than Novak was -- and I loved Novak's game in college.
Stat-wise, most closely resembles: Jae Crowder
Crowder averaged 14.6 points, 7.6 rebounds and 1.8 assists under Buzz Williams at Marquette. Very close to Ellenson's numbers.
Can be better than: Lazar Hayward, Darius Johnson-Odom, Travis Diener
DJO lasted two years in the league and had a PER of -18.83. Yes, minus. Diener lasted four years, Hayward three. Ellenson's built for the modern NBA. To me, worst-case scenario for him is a five-year career in the States, then another half-decade in Europe. Too talented to not be playing basketball until he's at least 30.
Probably won't be as good as: Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler
Wade had a five-year run where he was a top-three player in the league, and Butler might be a top-12 player in the league right now. This goes without saying. Wade is entirely off the table. Butler's played beyond expectation and become a top-three defender. Ellenson will never be that on defense. Could he exceed expectations and make multiple All-Star teams? I could see it.
Most probable career arc/impact: Jae Crowder
Nearly eight points, 3 1/2 rebounds, 21 minutes per game with a PER approaching 14. That's fairly good. It also could wind up being too low for Ellenson, but expecting Wade or Butler-type performance is simply too much. Crowder is shaping up to be the third-best of that group -- unless or until Ellenson surpasses him. The book on Ellenson right now is he'll be a reliable 3/4 combo with an ability to score in a variety of ways. He can live near the rim or roam the perimeter. Truth is, Marquette's never had a player like him before. If you told me he had a 12-year NBA career, made one All-Star Game, averaged 13/7/4 and made $180 million, I'd believe it.
Marquette players drafted since 2000
2012: Jae Crowder (34th), Darius Johnson-Odom (55th)
2011: Jimmy Butler (30th)
2010: Lazar Hayward (30th)
2006: Steve Novak (32nd)
2005: Travis Diener (38th)
2003: Dwyane Wade (fifth)
OVERVIEW
Total players drafted: 7
Lottery picks: One
First round: Three
Average career college stat line of Marquette first rounders: 14.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 29.9 mpg, 123.2 ORtg, 22.7 PER
Average career NBA stat line of Marquette first rounders: 8.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, 18.1 mpg, 97.7 ORtg, 10.1 PER
Total All-Star Games for all Marquette players: 14
Average number of teams per player: 3.0
