Expert reveals College Football Playoff picks, futures, best bets for Round 1

Matt Severance has released college football picks and best bets for the College Football Playoff first round, as well as his national championship best bet

By Owen OBrien

Dec 15, 2025 at 12:16 pm ET • 4 min read

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Eight teams take the field this weekend for the first round of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff on Friday and Saturday. Some of the biggest programs in the nation, such as Alabama, Oklahoma, and Miami are in action during the opening round, so there is plenty of college football betting intrigue for online sports betting. No. 8 Oklahoma hosts No. 9 Alabama at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, while No. 7 Texas A&M takes on No. 10 Miami at noon ET on Saturday.

SportsLine expert Matt Severance has locked in his best bets for all four first-round CFP games, as well as a futures pick to win the national championship. Severance is backing Oklahoma as 1.5-point underdogs in the first round, as well as Oregon to win the CFP National Championship at +900. Before locking in your college football picks for the opening round of the CFP, be sure to check out the top college football betting picks from SportsLine's Matt Severance.

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Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Severance is 61-38-1 (+1135) over his last 100 college football picks. Anybody following his college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

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College football Playoff best bets for the first round (odds subject to change):

Oklahoma (+1.5) vs. Alabama
Miami (+3.5) at Texas A&M
Tulane (+17.5) at Ole Miss
James Madison (+21.5) at Oregon
College Football Playoff future: Oregon to win the national championship (+900)

Oklahoma (+1.5) vs. Alabama (-115)

"The Tide should not be in the playoff," Severance said. "Notre Dame fans can scream all they want about Miami, but the Irish should have been in over Bama. Some good wins for the Tide, but some pretty bad losses. And they lost at home to the Sooners, 23-21, on Nov. 15, so I really don't get this. Oklahoma can become the first team ever to defeat Alabama twice in a season. By the way, the total is only 40.5. That's by far the lowest in any CFP game all-time."

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Miami (+3.5) at Texas A&M (-110)

"Look, I can't be impartial here. I am a huge Canes guy, but I would tell you if I thought they would lose," Severance said. "And they have been pretty bad on the road. But man, that shocking entry into the playoff, and I do think they have by far the better roster. The hook may matter, though. The Aggies have failed to cover five straight and are 2-5 ATS at home."

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Tulane (+17.5) at Ole Miss (-110)

"Obviously, the Rebels are in a bit of turmoil," Severance said. "I suppose they rally around all this but 17.5? They did beat Tulane in Oxford, 45-10, in September, but obviously quite a bit has changed since then. Bitcoin and Lane Kiffin for two examples. It's the largest number against Tulane since 2021. I don't think the Green Wave win, but certainly can stay within 17."

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James Madison (+21.5) at Oregon (-108)

"I don't want to say the Ducks will overlook the Dukes – and I definitely wanted to say Dukes and Ducks in the same sentence – but yeah, I think they might," Severance said. "This is the largest spread in CFP history. These are two of four FBS schools to rank top 10 in scoring offense and defense. JMU is 4-0 ATS when not favored by double digits this season and 16-5 ATS in that scenario since 2023."

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Bonus pick: Oregon to win championship (+900)

"Look, do I think No. 2 Ohio State repeats? Very possibly, but horrible value at +220, and I am a Miami Hurricanes fan, so if they beat Texas A&M in Round 1, I believe they can beat OSU at a neutral site in the Cotton Bowl quarterfinals," Severance said. "I think Oregon smashes James Madison in Eugene on Saturday, and then takes care of massively overrated Texas Tech in the quarters. So at that point, it's just value."

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