College Football Playoff scenarios: How the top six teams can get in with wins or even losses
Alabama and Notre Dame have clinched playoff spots, but what about the other four contenders?
Just one day from now we will officially know the four teams set for the 2019 College Football Playoff. Two teams have already clinched their spots in the final four, and you likely already know those names.
No. 1 Alabama has put together arguably the most dominant regular season in the history of the sport, so the Crimson Tide will be in the CFP, win or lose in the SEC Championship Game. No. 3 Notre Dame capped off its undefeated season last Saturday, so a place is secured for the Irish. Some people have been asking if Notre Dame can miss the playoff because it does not play a 13th game. Um … no. That's not happening.
Let's take a look at how the other playoff can lock up a spot in the field. We'll start with the easiest and work our way to the hardest scenarios.
The Easy Ways
No. 2 Clemson: Win. A victory in the ACC Championship Game over 7-5 Pittsburgh will clinch an undefeated season for the Tigers and one of the top two seeds.
No. 4 Georgia: Win. All the Bulldogs need to do is beat the Tide. Sounds simple enough, right?
No. 5 Oklahoma: OU needs to avenge its only loss at the hands of Texas with payback in the Big 12 Championship Game while hoping Alabama does what everyone expects and beats Georgia.
No. 6 Ohio State: It is more of an uphill climb for Ohio State, but that has been the Buckeyes' season in a nutshell since the 29-point loss at Purdue. Ohio State not only needs Georgia to lose, it also needs Oklahoma to fall to Texas for a second time.
The Hard Ways
How does Clemson get in if it loses to Pitt? There are four scenarios.
1. Alabama beats Georgia, Northwestern beats Ohio State
2. Alabama beats Georgia, Texas beats Oklahoma
3. Georgia beats Alabama, Texas beats Oklahoma, Northwestern beats Ohio State
4. Alabama beats Georgia, Ohio State beats Northwestern: The committee would pick between Ohio State and Clemson for the fourth seed. I think the committee would go with OSU because it would be a conference champion in what would otherwise be a close call.
How does Georgia get in if it loses to Alabama? There is one scenario.
1. Texas beats Oklahoma, Northwestern beats Ohio State: The Bulldogs could backdoor their way into the CFP if the Sooners and Buckeyes also lose their respective championship games.
How does Oklahoma get in if it loses to Texas? There is one scenario.
1. Alabama beats Georgia, Pitt beats Clemson, Northwestern beats Ohio State: This could give the Sooners a chance to finish ahead of the Tigers for the fourth playoff spot.
How does Ohio State get in if it loses to Northwestern? It doesn't.
Impacting the New Year's Six
The New Year's Six games can also be impacted by the conference title game results. The Rose Bowl will get the Pac-12 champion regardless of the game's outcome, and the Fiesta Bowl will get the Group of Five representative. That team will be UCF if it beats Memphis in the AAC Championship Game. If Memphis wins, then the winner of the Mountain West title gets a trip to Glendale, Arizona.
Here's how some of the less likely conference championship results can impact the New Year's Six games.
If Texas beats Oklahoma for the Big 12 title: The Longhorns are in the Sugar Bowl as the Big 12 champion, and Oklahoma goes to the Fiesta Bowl, possibly for a rematch of one of the most famous Fiesta Bowls with Boise State. Texas will make the Sugar Bowl if it loses to OU and the Sooners enter the playoff.
If Pitt beats Clemson for the ACC title: Oklahoma moves up to the No. 3 seed behind Alabama and Notre Dame. The committee would pick between Ohio State and Clemson for the fourth seed. I think it would go with OSU because it is a conference champion in what would otherwise be a close call. LSU gets dropped from the New Year's Six to make room for Pitt. Clemson would go to the Fiesta Bowl. Pitt would play Florida in the Peach Bowl.
If Northwestern beats Ohio State for the Big Ten title: Again, this would knock LSU out of the New Year's Six and put Northwestern in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State would likely be off to the Fiesta Bowl, and the Peach Bowl would still have Michigan vs. Florida.
What if both Pitt and Northwestern win? The playoff teams are Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Clemson. Ohio State is out of the playoff, and both Florida and LSU get booted from the New Year's Six. Northwestern is in the Rose Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl has Ohio State, and the Peach Bowl gets Pitt vs. Michigan. And if Texas also wins? Georgia is back in the playoff and Oklahoma is out. Florida is in the Sugar Bowl representing the SEC. Pitt is in the Peach Bowl against Ohio State. Oklahoma plays the Group of Five team in the Fiesta Bowl. Michigan is out of the New Year's Six.
Randomness
What if Georgia loses to Alabama in an epic battle? Could the Bulldogs stay at No. 4 even if the Sooners and Buckeyes win? Probably not. Georgia would certainly be unique in that nobody has given Alabama a battle this year, but the Dawgs would still have a 20-point loss to LSU, and a loss to Alabama is still a loss.
What if Ohio State beats Northwestern, say ... 59-0, and Oklahoma needs something like seven overtimes to beat Texas 125-124? Would OSU jump OU? I think it's unlikely. If Northwestern were 10-2 and not 8-4, then maybe, but the committee has already decided it likes the Sooners better than the Buckeyes, and I don't think there is anything they can do to the Wildcats to change their mind. If that jump did happen, Oklahoma would go to the Sugar Bowl as the Big 12 champion, Texas would drop out of the New Year's Six games and be replaced by No. 11 Penn State.
Note that all of these situations are based on the assumption that the relative rankings of teams that are not playing will not change this weekend. That could be a bad assumption. Prior to championship week in 2014, the teams ranked 7-10 were Arizona, Michigan State, Kansas State and Mississippi State. Arizona and Kansas State lost conference title games and dropped down, but Mississippi State jumped Michigan State for No. 7 even though neither team played. That is the only instance of such an occurrence in the four-year history of these rankings. If the committee had an unlikely change of heart regarding Penn State, Washington State or Kentucky, then the matchups described above would change.
















