cfp-logo-pylon-getty.jpg
Getty Images

The 100-plus page agenda for this week's College Football Playoff spring meeting might as well be a precursor. The toughest stuff is still to come.

The annual meeting in Irving, Texas, held Tuesday through Thursday, will review the 2022 season and begin planning for the 10th year of the playoff -- largely routine stuff.

However, this season will mark the last with four playoff teams. The expanded 12-team playoff begins in 2024 for two seasons before the entire enterprise is reconsidered for 2026 and beyond. Everything from media rights to game sites remains to be determined. About the only certainty for 2026, when the current contract expires, is that the 12-team bracket will continue.

Given it took nearly 1 ½ years -- from presentation in June 2021 to final approval in December 2022 -- to create the expanded playoff, it's never too early to begin planning for the future.

There were huge reasons for the expansion delay. Among them, Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC with USC and UCLA later joining the Big Ten. Those teams don't begin playing in their new leagues until 2024, but with 14 teams changing conferences in 2023 alone, that will have to be considered first.

The CFP meeting includes commissioners of the 10 FBS conferences, Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick, rightsholder ESPN, ADs of the four 2022 semifinal teams (TCU, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan) and NC State AD Boo Corrigan, chairman of the CFP Selection Committee.

These are the main issues going forward ...

Future playoff schedules

Even though the expanded playoff doesn't start until 2024, plenty of planning must take place. Yet to be determined are the regular-season and postseason schedules beginning that year.

Depending who you ask, beginning the season in what has come to be known as "Week 0" -- the last weekend before Labor Day -- is either a good idea or undoable. If the regular season starts that early, it would probably end the weekend before Thanksgiving. That would put the conference championship games on the last weekend in November across most seasons, opening an extra week to fit in the expanded playoff.

As modeled, first-round games would begin at least nine days after the conference championship games. Quarterfinals would then be played on or around Jan. 1 with semifinals and the championship game later in the month. The CFP would need at least two days to complete the first round and quarterfinals.

The CFP wants to avoid going head-to-head against the NFL, which is turning into a giant headache. The league already plays on the most desirable dates, including Saturdays once college league title games conclude.

Plus, if the season starts earlier, that means camps must begin earlier, which starts a discussion about that conflicting with summer school at some programs.

Future playoff venues

As modeled, first-round games will be played on campuses with the top-four ranked conference champions receiving byes. That means the eight lowest ranked teams meet: No. 12 at No. 5, No. 11 at No. 6, No. 10 at No. 7, No. 9 at No. 8.

There are tons of logistics involved -- hotel availability, ticket prices, distribution. Backup plans will be needed if weather or graduation (filled hotel rooms) make the games unplayable on campuses. There have already been discussions about games being played within the Big Ten region -- Indianapolis, Minnesota or Detroit -- as a backup plan should weather be an issue.

At least for the next two years, each of the New Year's Six bowls will rotate through the quarterfinals and semifinals.

Revenue distribution

Since the CFP started in 2014, revenue has mostly been distributed equally between conferences. Last season's formula can be seen here.  Power Five leagues received $74 million each in 2022. The Group of Five conferences split $95 million. Conferences received $6 million for each of their teams that played in a CFP semifinal and $4 million for each that played in a New Year's Six (non-playoff) game.

However, that's about to change. CFP sources confirmed that -- for the 2024 and 2025 seasons -- distribution will be weighted more toward individual teams based on their CFP success. For example, because CFP conference revenue will be divided 16 ways in the SEC once the league expands, a national champion from that conference might have made less from the playoff than, say, a program from the (currently 10-team) Pac-12 under the current distribution. Weighting payments toward individual teams would ensure that would not happen.

Next media rights deal

While not on the agenda, sources say not to dismiss the possibility of it being brought up. Again, the CFP contract has three years to run, but as we've seen with the Pac-12, it's never too early to talk new media rights. The CFP will most likely seek multiple partners, significantly increasing the value of their rights. Negotiations on such a deal could begin as soon as next year.

College football is the only major sport whose postseason playoff is carried by a single rightsholder (ESPN). Administrators have long been aware of the increased value of an expanded playoff, which is estimated to be worth at least $1.2 billion annually, according to industry sources.

The CFP is currently making $600 million annually with ESPN, which has the contract through the 2025 season. There is some thought that the network will have preferred status in the next bidding process; however, nothing is certain.

"When we do a new TV deal, we'll have to sit down and obviously redo the [distribution] formula," AAC commissioner Mike Aresco said. "That could be an interesting discussion."