Bleacher Banter: Resurrected Angel
Bartolo Colon turned around a horrible first half of the season with a 12-4 record after the All-Star break. Bleacher Banter examines the keeper value of Colon, as well as Aaron Rowand and Jake Westbrook.
Each Friday, we answer Fantasy Baseball questions submitted over the past week. Please e-mail your questions to bleacher@commissioner.com. Be sure to put Attn: Bleacher Banter in the subject field, and include your full name, hometown and state. Please be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.
Jake Freehling, Bartlett, Ill.: With Russ Ortiz and Jaret Wright free agents at season's end and taking into account the health of Paul Byrd and Mike Hampton, do you see Jose Capellan, Kyle Davies or Dan Meyer joining the Braves rotation next season? How do you think they would fare in that role?
T.C.: The Braves have historically groomed their starting pitching prospects slowly, often giving only one rookie per year a shot at a fourth or fifth starter job. Taking into account that those three youngsters made just seven, 11 and one start(s) at Triple-A Richmond this season, it seems unlikely the team is going to enter spring training assuming any of them will break camp in the rotation. Capellan actually projects quicker as a reliever than starter, and it's possible the Braves will simply accommodate John Smoltz's wishes to return to starting and then sign another veteran arm if they don't retain Ortiz and Wright. The best-case scenario has Capellan and Meyer battling for the fifth starter job in the spring, with Davies a potential dark horse candidate, but more likely all three will only move into starting roles if injuries strike Atlanta starters in mid-2005. Don't expect anything big from these three for at least another year.
Derek Eggers, Palm Springs, Calif.: Between David DeJesus and Aaron Rowand, which player do you believe has the biggest upside for 2005?
T.C.: Rowand had a nice season and has probably assured himself of an everyday role in the Chicago outfield in 2005, but he still comes across as a streaky hitter. If you take his September/October totals and project them to 500 at-bats, he would hit .267-17-78-9, rather ordinary for a Fantasy outfielder. Take DeJesus' totals during that span and he earns a .288-16-72-12 projection, putting him right with Rowand. The two aren't nearly as different in current value as it might appear, but the fact remains DeJesus' upside has been pegged as close to that of Carlos Beltran. He's slightly riskier on a bad team but is well worth the gamble.
Zac Lane, Athens, Ga.: I am in a 10-team, points-based, weekly Head-to-Head keeper league where you are allowed to keep four players with no restrictions. I am leaning toward keeping Randy Johnson and Johan Santana, the top two overall players points-wise, as well as Mariano Rivera, fifth overall because saves are as valuable as wins. Who should be my fourth keeper: another pitcher, with the idea to load up on hitters early in the draft, or a batter, with choices from Carl Crawford, Johnny Damon, Carlos Delgado, Brian Giles, Mark Loretta, Mike Mussina, Joe Nathan, Carl Pavano, Jim Thome, Michael Young and Carlos Zambrano? Also, would you stick with my first three keepers?
T.C.: Without knowing your scoring system, it's difficult to gauge the value of stolen bases, so while Crawford is an intriguing selection here, he can't be recommended over the bigger names. But keeping three pitchers is an extremely risky strategy. Given the choice, you should probably let Rivera walk because his 2004 workload might catch up to him and he won't log enough innings to match Johnson or Santana anyway. Keep Thome and Young, two top Fantasy players at their positions.
Mike Wright, Lincoln, Neb.: I'm in a 19-team, point-based keeper league with 24-man rosters that are composed of 10 pitchers and the rest position players. We have a $15 cap and can keep 15 players, adding 10 cents to the salary of the player. I'm most curious about Jake Westbrook. His numbers are much better than last year's, but can he match them? Is he nice trade bait? I have him at 15 cents if I keep him, as I picked him up early in the season. Also, who will close for the Angels next year, Troy Percival or Francisco Rodriguez? I have Percival at $2 and K-Rod at $1.20 if I keep them, but $2 is a high price in this league.
T.C.: What made Westbrook so effective this season is that he was much more aggressive with his pitches than in the past; he brought a 3.44 walks-per-nine innings ratio into the year and maintained a 2.55 rate in 2004. That was really the only knock on him, since the sinking action on his pitches induces a high rate of groundballs and double plays, a trait that dramatically reduces Fantasy risk. Westbrook's 72 2/3-inning increase in workload could take a toll in 2005, and there's always a chance he'll go back to trying to nibble the corners, but for the dirt-cheap price you have him at, he could win just 10 games with a 4.25 ERA and be worth it.
While Anaheim could conceivably remain loyal to long-time closer Percival, all indications are his contract is far too pricey for the team not to let him depart via free agency and hand the job to K-Rod. Both relievers are a risk as things stand today, but if you're forced to make a choice, K-Rod is a much better gamble based on the price.
Alan Bensley, Newmarket, Ontario: I am in an AL-only, Rotisserie 6x6 league, with the sixth offensive category being walks. Assuming Orlando Cabrera signs with an American League team in the offseason, do you think he is worth $18?
T.C.: That price sounds just about right in that typical league style. Cabrera is essentially a .275-15-70-20 hitter but isn't particularly patient, averaging 46 walks the past four seasons. If your league is going to leave plenty of talented shortstops out there in the draft or has fewer than 10 teams, it's possible you could let Cabrera go and get him a couple dollars cheaper. But if most shortstops are kept or you're in a 12-or-more-team league, however, that price is a slight bargain.
Jamie Friel, Philadelphia: I am in a very deep keeper league and was wondering who are some of the best prospects who have yet to play a major-league game -- players like Joel Guzman, Felix Hernandez and Yusmeiro Petit. Are there some can't-miss guys who should be on my radar for next season or 2006?
T.C.: This columnist's list of the top 10 prospects who have yet to appear in a major-league game, in no particular order: Matt Cain, Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, Jeff Francoeur, Guzman, Hernandez, Andy Marte, Ian Stewart, Rickie Weeks and Delmon Young. But don't overlook Arizona's trio of young bats: Jamie D'Antona, Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin.
Phil King, Dayton, Ohio: I'm in an eight-player keeper league and had an outstanding team this year, but now I must decide who to cut loose. I think I'm keeping Carlos Beltran, Miguel Cabrera, Santana, Jason Schmidt and Thome, leaving me three spots to fill from the following: Adrian Beltre, J.D. Drew, Carlos Guillen, Johnson, Brad Lidge, (saves are equal value to wins), Jake Peavy and Oliver Perez.
T.C.: Drew might have been driven by his contract-year status, while Guillen's knee injury could hinder him at the start of next season. Throw them out and that still leaves you with a difficult choice between five quality keepers. For as much value as Lidge has, closers are easier to find than top pitchers, and Perez just doesn't have Peavy's upside or Johnson's sheer dominance. Keep Beltre, Johnson and Peavy.
Glenn Klucka, Vestal, N.Y.: I am in a 10-team, AL-only league with three keepers, two for a maximum of three years and one "franchise player" who, once chosen, is on your team until he either leaves the AL or retires. Also, we can keep no more than one player at each position. I plan to keep Tim Hudson and Aubrey Huff, with Alfonso Soriano as my franchise player. Bartolo Colon, Ryan Drese, Jermaine Dye and Nomar Garciaparra (chancing he returns to the AL) are other options. Should I keep Hudson over the other pitchers, and is it safe to keep Soriano as my franchise player with his knee injury?
T.C.: Hudson and Colon are much better pitchers than Drese, a potential one-year wonder. Given the choice, Hudson is more reliable than Colon, since he has yet to show any sign of being hittable as a major leaguer. As for your franchise player, Soriano is your best bet based on his all-around ability, upside and age. It was a hamstring injury that ended his season prematurely, incidentally, and even if it does resurface, he's still far too valuable at a position that lacks depth to throw back. To put it another way: Even in the worst-case scenario that Soriano is a bust next year, he's still going to be as valuable as an average Fantasy second baseman, while having a disappointing first baseman or outfielder would hurt you much more.
Terry Stull, Yankton, S.D.: I'm in a 22-owner, Rotisserie 5x5 auction league and am looking at my carryovers for next season. We have a traditional 260 units available in the auction. My quandary: I have Torii Hunter under a contract option for next year at 23 units. I feel like this is close to his true worth for 2005. I can buy out the option and put him back in the draft or I can keep him for one final year. What would you do?
T.C.: Hunter brings 20/20 ability and is still in his prime -- he'll turn 30 next July -- but there are a few factors that make him a poor investment at that price. He regressed in his plate discipline this season, dropping from a 2.12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2003 to 2.53 in '04. He has yet to top a .290 batting average, 30 homers or a .900 on-base plus slugging percentage in a single season. And his all-out approach to fielding puts him at a higher risk for injury, a factor that can affect his base running if he's not 100 percent. Hunter is a great young player and second-tier Fantasy outfielder in most formats, but you'll probably get him cheaper than $23 in that format.
Eric Maltais, Montreal: For my keeper league's last spot I need to pick between these pitchers: Colon, Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez, Javier Vazquez and Jaret Wright. Hernandez and Wright were solid all season, but I'm afraid Hernandez will break down sometime soon and Wright might be a one-year wonder. Vazquez probably has the most talent but was awful in the second half, and Colon and Garcia are very inconsistent. Who's the best pick for 2005?
T.C.: Pitching is incredibly unpredictable, so you could almost put all five names in a hat and draw one and be just as well off as thinking this out. Regardless, when you have five names with similar current value, your best bet is to take the one who appears the least risk for injury, is in his prime and plays for a team that will score him runs. Vazquez might fit the bill, but his strikeout rate dropped dramatically this season and he endured a horrible second half. Colon, however, finished the year strong and seems fully adjusted to his new surroundings in Anaheim. He could very well win 18 games with a 3.50 ERA in 2005 and be the best of the bunch.
Adam Exline, Takahashi City, Okayama, Japan: I need some advice on injured players who have been keepers in the past and might or might not be again. I'm in a 12-team, Rotisserie 5x5 league where we keep five players. I have Garret Anderson, Marcus Giles, Magglio Ordonez and Richie Sexson all coming off injury-shortened seasons. Which two would you add to Bobby Abreu, Aramis Ramirez and Miguel Tejada?
T.C.: Ordonez's injury is severe enough that he could miss part of the 2005 season, and with his pending free-agency, he's the riskiest of the lot. While Sexson's power makes him an intriguing keeper, he also plays a position that's easy to fill in Fantasy drafts. Anderson and Giles, meanwhile, both finished the year looking rather healthy, so they're the two you should keep.
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You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to bleacher@commissioner.com. Be sure to put Attn: Bleacher Banter in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Please be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.














