Circling the Bases is our Fantasy Baseball expert column, full of insider information, advice and in-depth analysis. Every Wednesday year-round, Tristan H. Cockcroft provides an array of offseason player analysis, preseason draft strategy and regular-season coverage.

The 2003 major-league baseball postseason will go down in history as one of the more exciting ones of all time, but it will also forever carry the label "The Year of the Curse."

In case you stopped paying attention once the Fantasy Baseball season ended a few weeks back, the Chicago Cubs were stopped dead in their tracks when the "Curse of the Billy Goat" helped the Florida Marlins mount an eight-run eighth inning in National League Championship Series Game 6 and eventually overcome a 3-1 series deficit. Just two nights later, the Boston Red Sox were overmatched by the division rival New York Yankees and the "Curse of the Bambino," blowing a three-run lead with five outs to go in the decisive Game 7 of the American League Championship Series.

Two wrongs might not make a right -- but could two curses wash out a third? Baseball fans might not be familiar with it, but die-hard Fantasy owners have probably heard of the fabled "Postseason Fantasy Curse," one that might finally come to an end this year.

In layman's terms, the "Postseason Fantasy Curse" dictates that players who rise from obscurity -- and sometimes, even semi-stardom -- to become October superstars generally become the biggest bust candidates the next Fantasy regular season. History backs it up:

Just last year, Troy Glaus captured the nation's attention by slugging seven postseason home runs and winning World Series MVP honors. He would follow that up with the worst full campaign of his big-league career, batting just .248 with 16 homers and missing nearly half the season with a shoulder injury. Francisco Rodriguez, dubbed K-Rod for his brilliant postseason performance last year, won five games with a sparkling 1.93 ERA in relief last October, but his ERA swelled to 3.03 and he struggled through the first two months of 2003.

In 2001, Miguel Batista was an unsung hero in the World Series victory over the Yankees, tossing 7 2/3 shutout innings in Game 5 and finishing with a 2.49 ERA overall in six postseason appearances. He was just 8-9 with a 4.29 ERA the next year.

In 1998, Sterling Hitchcock earned his 15 minutes of baseball fame by going 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in four postseason starts in the Padres' miracle run to the World Series. He fell to 12-14 with a 4.11 in his next season and has been forever overrated since. Scott Brosius also logged a .383 postseason average, but that number would drop to a poor .247 in 1999.

In 1997, Livan Hernandez fell prey to the curse, logging a 4-0 record and 3.18 ERA and stepping up in place of starter Alex Fernandez, who suffered a season-ending torn rotator cuff. Hernandez dropped to 10-12 with a 4.72 ERA on a completely gutted Marlins team in 1998.

National exposure players earn from their teams' postseason presence is a large contributor to this curse. Remember, many Fantasy owners don't get to see teams like the Marlins, Angels or Diamondbacks every day, especially if they're in a market like Boston or Minnesota. If a player dazzles audiences in the World Series, it's hard to forget that just five months later, when those same viewers are preparing for the next season's Draft Day.

That said, if there's any year the curse will be broken, it's 2003. This postseason has its share of stunning accomplishments, but the difference between this October's brightest emerging stars and the ones from years past is that this crop features so many young, high-ceiling Fantasy talents.

Take Josh Beckett for example. The right-hander has been perhaps the most surprising story of the postseason, posting a 2.67 ERA, 0.772 WHIP, .138 batting average and 38 strikeouts in 33 2/3 innings of work. Beckett's high-90s fastball, wicked curveball and improving changeup made even the Yankees' sluggers look like Little Leaguers, and it's hard to see a talent like him fade like Hernandez or Hitchcock, who weren't considered the elite prospects Beckett is.

Although Mark Prior and his Cubs didn't get as far as Beckett this October, the two have similar high ceilings, and their postseason performances can't be ignored. Expect Prior to receive heavy -- and warranted -- consideration as the top Fantasy pitcher, and Beckett to rank among the top 10, in 2004. Beckett has put blister and elbow concerns behind him with a phenomenal finish to 2003, and barring an unexpected injury, it's hard to see the curse stopping him.

On the hitting side, Miguel Cabrera and Trot Nixon have been two of the biggest postseason stories. Cabrera continues to impress fans, scouts and his manager alike, and it's hard to see him as a sophomore-slump type. He's occasionally fooled by low breaking pitches, but shows extraordinary ability to drive the ball to all fields and displays the confidence you like to see in a youngster. Cabrera's athleticism also makes him a strong bet to sustain his postseason level of production into 2004, as it's rare to see a player adapt so well to playing three demanding positions like third base, left field and right field in spacious Pro Player Stadium.

Nixon was coming off a breakout campaign by his standards, but his .306-28-87 totals were often overlooked in the deep Boston lineup by baseball fans. He continued that torrid pace into October despite a nagging calf injury, a sure sign that he has arrived as one of the best young sluggers in the American League. Expect Nixon to receive much more attention in 2004.

Even beyond the youngsters, it's hard to see some of the other postseason stars fading next year. Ivan Rodriguez, who has a .309 average and 17 RBI, has reclaimed his standing as one of baseball's best hitters after a year of full health. Juan Pierre. a .323 October hitter, is perhaps baseball's best catalyst and leadoff man. Even Hideki Matsui, a .327-2-11 postseason hitter, isn't a big risk to decline because he proved his worth with a 106-RBI regular-season performance.

Unfortunately for Fantasy owners, these players' postseason accolades will certainly mean a much higher Draft Day bid, so you're not going to sneak a Beckett or Cabrera past an unknowing opponent. But they'll carry considerably less risk than the cursed players of seasons past, and they're the best bet to reverse a hex that extends back for decades.

It's time to take a stand on this long-standing omen: "Let the Postseason Fantasy Curse be broken."

Fantasy Fungo

Adam Foster, Walnut Creek, Calif.: While working on my draft sheet for 2004, I realized that nearly every bullpen in the NL East is in shambles. Who will most likely be closing games, in 2004, for the NL East teams?

T.C.: The Braves are nearly certain to go with John Smoltz as their closer next season, and there's no reason to believe his recent elbow surgery will have a big impact on his 2004 performance. ... In Florida, it's hard to see Ugueth Urbina returning based on his anticipated free-agent price tag, making Braden Looper the likely closer regardless of his recent struggles. Don't rule out Chad Fox as a potential sleeper for saves. ... Philadelphia is a virtual lock to sign a free-agent closer, with Urbina, Eddie Guardado or Keith Foulke currently the most-rumored candidates. ...

The Expos will probably stick with Rocky Biddle as their closer to start 2004, unless either Luis Ayala or Chad Cordero outperforms him by a wide margin in the spring. Ayala and Cordero are Montreal's future finishing games, and it's hard to believe Biddle will make it to the All-Star break as the team's closer. Bank on Ayala if you have to make an early projection. ... New York fans have a hard time accepting rookies when their teams are planning to contend, making Royce Ring unlikely to get a shot at closing for the Mets unless the team either strikes out on the free-agent market or he has a tremendous spring. The team will probably either sign an Urbina type or go with a similar committee to this year.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball comments and questions to Tristan H. Cockcroft at bleacher@commissioner.com. Be sure to put Attn: Tristan in the subject field, and include your full name and hometown. Please be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee answers to all questions.