Circling the Bases: Wake up, sleepyheads!
Useful Fantasy tidbits for the future can often be obtained in otherwise forgettable September contests. Circling the Bases identifies eight 2005 sleepers you should be tracking in this season's final weeks.
Circling the Bases is our Fantasy Baseball expert column, full of insider information, advice and in-depth analysis. Every Wednesday year-round, Tristan H. Cockcroft provides an array of regular-season coverage, offseason player analysis and preseason draft strategy.
This late in the season, many Fantasy Baseball owners have already turned their attention to football. For many, the lure of the gridiron is too great to resist.
But smart owners are well aware of the implications of September baseball. With many youngsters in the hunt for jobs for next season on teams long since out of the race, there are a great number of scouting tips you can obtain by following otherwise meaningless games. Keep in mind that analyzing those trends gives you a head start on the masses who normally wait until spring training to begin their draft preparation.
Here's a list of eight sleeper candidates for 2005 to watch in these final weeks:
Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Detroit: Take a look at his career numbers, and his 15-30 record, 5.38 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in 56 starts would surely scare off most Fantasy owners. But remember, he was rushed to the majors last year at just 20 years old, and most scouts at the time said he would be a future ace and possible Cy Young winner. Keep in mind some of the better current names -- Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Johan Santana and Javier Vazquez -- were all comparably awful at ages 20 and 21. Bonderman has a 3-1 record, 1.48 ERA, 0.989 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in his past four starts, which suggests he might be turning the corner. Next year could be his breakout.
Jose Capellan, SP/RP, Atlanta: He has a live arm that can reach 100 mph on the radar gun, and that might make him the ideal replacement for John Smoltz down the road. In fact, that brings up an interesting problem for the Braves. Smoltz has said he wants to return to a starting role in 2005, and he still needs four more games finished for his option to vest. Capellan, meanwhile, could step in if Smoltz moves into the rotation, or he could be used in a starting role. Capellan might be an untested arm, but if there's any pitching coach who diminishes that type of risk, it's Leo Mazzone. Horacio Ramirez (2003) and Damian Moss (2002) are just two rookie pitchers who rose from nowhere to be useful Fantasy sleepers under Mazzone's watch. He also played a big part in the development of rookie closers Kerry Ligtenberg (1998) and Greg McMichael (1993).
Adam LaRoche, 1B, Atlanta: He has disappointed after many picked him as a rookie of the year candidate, but LaRoche's .270 average and 10 homers shouldn't be overlooked. Julio Franco isn't getting any younger, and the Braves should seriously consider giving LaRoche the everyday job in 2005. He's striking out a bit more than you might want, but keep in mind that 36 -- or nearly half -- of his 80 hits have gone for extra bases. That's a sure sign that LaRoche might be nearing a power surge, which could come as a 25-year-old next year.
Guillermo Mota, RP, Florida: The Marlins have never been known for investing heavily on the free-agent market, and free-agent-to-be Armando Benitez has probably long since priced himself out of their market after saving 41 games with a 1.16 ERA this season. It's not inconceivable Florida could allow Benitez to walk, move Mota into the closer role and sign some cheaper arms for setup roles in 2005. Even if Benitez is retained, it's going to be difficult for any team to resist using Mota in a more prominent role. The right-hander has an astonishing 2.09 ERA, 1.044 WHIP and 177 strikeouts in 189 2/3 innings since the start of the 2003 season, and most baseball minds believe he could be an Eric Gagne-like force at the back end of a team's bullpen.
Carlos Pena, 1B, Detroit: The list of hitters who enjoyed a power explosion at the age of 27 is well documented: Gary Sheffield and Sammy Sosa each reached the 40-homer plateau, while Ken Griffey Jr. reached 50, among dozens of other power surges. Pena coincidentally turns 27 next May 17, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that he has shown slight improvements in his walk rate, performance against left-handers and run production this year. He's a .294-7-19-2 hitter since the beginning of August, with 27 walks compared to 126 at-bats. Everyone will write off Pena as an average first baseman based upon his track record, but don't fall into that trap. He's taking small steps each year and is just entering his prime.
Alexis Rios, OF, Toronto: You've probably heard the Vernon Wells comparisons by now, although Rios thus far seems like he'll hit for a higher average but much less power. Don't let Rios' one homer in 370 at-bats fool you. Wells himself hit just two homers in 186 at-bats in brief trials from 1999-2001 before his breakout in 2002. Rios merely needs some of those 24 doubles in 370 at-bats to begin clearing the fence, and it could happen in 2005; he turns 24 in February. Even if he doesn't reach a power peak, he could still approach 20-20 numbers with a high average and plenty of RBI.
Juan Rivera, OF, Montreal: He might never be a Sheffield, but Rivera was considered a future superstar while rising the ranks of the Yankees farm system. He flashed decent pop in limited time in New York last season and has more recently shown signs of becoming a more skilled batsman in relative obscurity in Montreal. Since Aug. 1, Rivera has batted .356 with 14 walks compared to just 12 strikeouts in 35 games. While it's unclear where the Expos will be playing baseball in 2005, almost anything would be a better situation than their current one, so Rivera should have more support in the spring. It's incredible to think that he is owned in just four percent of all SportsLine.com leagues.
Chad Tracy, 3B, Arizona: When he was rising through the minor-league ranks, many compared him to Wade Boggs. It's safe to say Tracy is highly unlikely to develop into the .328 career hitter Boggs was, but that doesn't mean the parallel should be tossed aside completely. Tracy has batted .294 in 128 games for a terrible team that has afforded him little-to-no offensive help, an impressive feat. Boggs, as a 24-year-old rookie in 1982, hit .349 with comparable power numbers. Shave a dozen or two batting average points and a quarter of Boggs' walks and you have a fairly acceptable long-term expectation for Tracy. He'll be overlooked in 2005 after Arizona tanked this year, but we could be looking at a future batting champion.
Fantasy Fungo
A number of readers wrote in regarding last week's column, my "10 Most Incredibly Unexpected, Awe-Inspiring Fantasy Surprises". Here are some of their comments:
Jerry Fry, Abbotsford, B.C.: Jack Wilson would have made my list. He has come out of nowhere to become a go-to guy for next year's draft. As of about two to three weeks ago, Braden Looper would have been in the running as well, but considering the lack of save opportunities afforded to him lately, I've had him riding pine for the past two weeks.
Tang Chuong, Beantown, Mass.: Though Craig Wilson has slumped since the All-Star break, his total numbers of .266-27-78-2-87 have carried my team and deserve a little ink alongside Victor Martinez. It was well worth spending a middle-to-low pick on a catcher-eligible Wilson for a position where he clearly gave me a competitive advantage.
T.C.: There's no denying that Wilson has been a huge Fantasy asset, especially during the season's first half. He's a prime example of a breakout candidate who capitalized on a switch from a part-time to full-time role. Project Wilson's 2001-03 totals to the 512 at-bats he has so far this year, and he would have .271-29-84-5-76 numbers, quite comparable to his 2004 statistics.
Jim Cotgreave, Ronkonkoma, N.Y.: I can't believe you left Mark Loretta off your list. He was projected 17th among second basemen in the preseason and is dominating the position right now. Where's the love?
T.C.: Loretta was the most painful cut of all last week, and I only pulled him because I was among the group who hailed him and Placido Polanco as underrated draft selections. It's still rather surprising that Loretta has racked up career-year totals in baseball's most pitching-friendly ballpark, but the truth is that he's a guy who should annually not be overlooked.
Jackson Floyd, Nashville, Tenn.: How can you not include the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff? Jason Marquis is the greatest surprise I have seen this year. Jeff Suppan hasn't lost a game on the road. The Cardinals' big names have had their usual seasons, but it's the other three guys who have given them this league-leading record.
Jeremy Roschyk, Baraboo, Wis.: You forgot to include Ben Sheets in your list. He hasn't gotten many wins mostly due to the Brewers' anemic offense this year, but his ERA, WHIP and strikeout totals are all in the top five in the majors.
T.C.: Among the other categories in which Sheets is in the top five: strikeout-to-walk ratio (7.86, first place); strikeouts per nine innings (9.91, fifth); and walks per nine (1.26, fifth). He's also in the top 10 in innings pitched (207, seventh); opponents' batting average (.223, seventh); quality starts (20, tied for 8th); complete games (3, tied for eighth).
Adam Foster: Oliver Perez was one of my most pleasant surprises. After having a promising second half in 2002, his lack of control made him a bust in 2003. In his first full season with Pittsburgh, the flamethrower has emerged as a top keeper arm and the closest thing to a Randy Johnson successor in baseball.
T.C.: Perez was the "other" most painful omission, along with Loretta. Perez ranked among the majors' top 10 in ERA (3.01, sixth), strikeouts (212, sixth), WHIP (1.113, seventh), opponents' batting average (.202, third) and strikeouts per nine innings (11.18, first). It's a shame that three of baseball's best pitchers suffered immensely in the wins department as a result of poor run support -- Perez (10 wins), Sheets (11) and Johnson (13).
Tony: Nice way to cover yourself by saying "one good thing about Fantasy Baseball ..." Dude, you dropped the ball on Mark Prior and Roy Halladay as disappointments. Admit it.
T.C.: You got me, Tony. Halladay should've made my list over Loaiza, but I'll stand behind my statement that Fantasy owners had to be prepared for Prior's injury problems. His Achilles' was acting up by early March, well before most drafts took place, and those who selected him were well aware there was high risk involved.
You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball thoughts and questions to Tristan H. Cockcroft at bleacher@commissioner.com. Be sure to put Attn: Tristan in the subject field, and include your full name and hometown. Please be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee answers to all questions.














