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Why even bother, right?

Relief pitcher — particularly in leagues that emphasize saves above all else — is so outrageously volatile that any amount of long-term planning there is a fool's errand. If you think paying for saves in a re-draft league is a bad idea, just imagine giving up long-term assets for them in Dynasty.

I think the individual scores here reflect it. Not a single relief pitcher has a confidence rating higher than 2, even though the scale is 1-5. In fact, no one scores a five in any category, underscoring how low-impact the position is.

(Note that I'm only assessing true relievers here and not starting pitchers with relief pitcher eligibility since we obviously can't count on them retaining that eligibility year after year.)

What do I mean by scoring a five? Well, here are the three factors I weigh most heavily when putting together these rankings:

  1. Present value: What a player is expected to be in 2020
  2. Future value: What his peak looks like and how much peak he has left
  3. Confidence rating: How confident I am in him meeting his immediate and long-term value

Each factor is measured on a 1-to-5 score, with five being the best, and a player's ranking is primarily determined by adding the scores. Ties typically go to the younger player, but personal preference plays a role as well. The distinctions become less evident further down the list, so at some point subjectivity has to reign.

Top 30 dynasty relief pitchers
RankPlayerAge (on 7/1)PresentFutureConfidence
1 26 442
2 25342
3 33422
4 32422
5 30431
6 26341
7 29332
8 31421
9 29331
10 29331
11 28331
12 32322
13 32 3 22
14 31 3 2 2
15 3032 2
16 26 2 3 1
17 27 2 3 1
18 25 2 31
19 3132 1
20
player headshot
Hansel Robles LAA RP
29321
21 31321
22 28 2 3 1
23 25231
24 33221
25 27221
26 30 2 21
27 23 1 3 1
28
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James Karinchak CLE RP
24 1 31
29 3022 1
30 30 2 2 1


Dynasty Rankings: 
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