Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: Top 30 at first base

First base is never lacking in big bats, but it isn't deep in Dynasty targets.

First base is a strange position for Dynasty purposes. The defensive threshold is so low that it's almost inevitable talented hitters will wind up there, whether because they're getting older or because they become the surplus at some other position.

But particularly with the emphasis on versatility at the major-league level, it's not often a position where those talented hitters start out. They have to prove they can't hack it at a more premium defensive position first.

It makes long-term planning difficult in a Dynasty league. Do you trust there will always be an old guy to fall back on if you don't happen into a player who moves to first base early in his career? Presently, only five of the standouts at the position are 27 or younger.

Fortunately, six of the top 30 here are prospects (or barely graduated prospects, in the case of Nate Lowe) who genuinely profile as first basemen, so help may be on the way.

During Monday's Fantasy Baseball Today Podcast we broke down first base for Dynasty, including Matt Olson vs. Josh Bell. Keep up with us and everything baseball and subscribe here. 

Here are the three factors I weigh most heavily when putting together these rankings:

1. Present value: What a player is expected to be in 2020
   
2. Future value: What his peak looks like and how much peak he has left
   
3. Confidence rating: How confident I am in him meeting his immediate and long-term value
   

Each factor is measured on a 1-to-5 score, with five being the best, and a player's ranking is primarily determined by adding the scores. Ties typically go to the younger player, but personal preference plays a role as well. The distinctions become less evident further down the list, so at some point subjectivity has to reign.

Top 30 dynasty first basemen

Rank	Player	Age (on 7/1)	Present	Future	Confidence
1	Cody Bellinger LAD RF	24	5	5	5
2	Freddie Freeman ATL 1B	30	5	3	5
3	Pete Alonso NYM 1B	25	4	4	4
4	Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B	30	4	3	4
5	Josh Bell PIT 1B	27	4	4	3
6	Matt Olson OAK 1B	26	4	4	3
7	Max Muncy LAD 2B	29	4	3	3
8	Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B	27	3	4	3
9	DJ LeMahieu NYY 2B	31	4	3	2
10	Andrew Vaughn CHW 1B	22	1	5	3
11	Yasmani Grandal CHW C	31	4	2	3
12	Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B	32	4	2	3
13	Jose Abreu CHW 1B	33	4	2	3
14	Carlos Santana CLE 1B	34	4	1	3
15	Luke Voit NYY 1B	29	3	3	2
16	Nate Lowe TB 1B	24	2	4	2
17	Ryan Mountcastle BAL SS	23	2	4	2
18	Evan White SEA 1B	24	2	3	3
19	Danny Santana TEX 1B	29	3	3	1
20	Yuli Gurriel HOU 1B	36	3	1	3
21	Edwin Encarnacion CHW DH	37	3	1	3
22	Christian Walker ARI 1B	29	3	3	1
23	Yandy Diaz TB 3B	28	2	3	2
24	Michael Chavis BOS 1B	24	2	4	1
25	Joc Pederson LAD LF	28	3	3	1
26	Eric Hosmer SD 1B	30	2	2	3
27	Triston Casas BOS 3B	20	1	4	1
28	Joey Votto CIN 1B	36	2	1	3
29	Mike Ford NYY 1B	27	1	4	1
30	Seth Beer ARI 1B	23	1	4	1

Dynasty Rankings: SP | RP | OF | SS | 1B | 3B | 2B | C