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Starting pitcher has become arguably the most pivotal position in Fantasy Baseball over the past couple years, but that doesn't mean it's any more predictable.

That's especially true when assessing it for the long haul. If you wade into the prospect pool, you'll notice like half the names there are pitchers. The attrition and failure rates at the position are so high that teams need to develop more than they'll seemingly need, because even then, it may not be enough.

Of course, from a Dynasty perspective, it means the position presents a greater chance of misfire. That's especially true within the prospect ranks, but any pitcher with a limited track record of success — which turns out to be the vast majority because of that high attrition resent -- may turn out to be just a short-term play. As a result, you'll notice a precipitous drop in "confidence rating" as you scroll through these rankings.

It's one of the three factors I considered when putting them together:

  1. Present value: What a player is expected to be in 2020
  2. Future value: What his peak looks like and how much peak he has left
  3. Confidence rating: How confident I am in him meeting his immediate and long-term value

Each factor is measured on a 1-to-5 score, with five being the best, and a player's ranking is primarily determined by adding the scores. Ties typically go to the younger player, but personal preference plays a role as well. The distinctions become less evident further down the list, so at some point subjectivity has to reign.

We discussed my starting pitcher Dynasty rankings on the Fantasy Baseball Today Podcast Wednesday along with ADP combos. Keep up with everything baseball and subscribe here.

Top 100 dynasty starting pitchers
RankPlayerAge (on 7/1)PresentFutureConfidence
1 29 5 4 5
2
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Walker Buehler LAD SP
25 5 5 4
3 25 5 5 3
4
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Jack Flaherty STL SP
24 4 5 4
5
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Jacob deGrom NYM SP
32 5 3 5
6 29 5 3 4
7 25 4 5 3
8 27 4 5 3
9 27 4 5 3
10
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Chris Paddack SD SP
24 4 5 3
11 27 4 5 3
12
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Stephen Strasburg WAS SP
31 4 3 4
13 30 4 3 4
14
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Tyler Glasnow TB SP
26 4 5 2
15
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Mike Soroka ATL SP
22 4 4 3
16 26 4 4 3
17 25 3 5 3
18
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Jesus Luzardo OAK RP
22 3 5 3
19 21 1 5 4
20 24 3 4 3
21 37 5 1 4
22
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Max Scherzer WAS SP
35 5 1 4
23 23 3 4 3
24 27 4 4 2
25 27 4 4 2
26 32 4 2 4
27
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Nate Pearson TOR RP
23 2 5 2
28 29 3 4 2
29 30 4 3 2
30
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James Paxton NYY SP
31 4 3 2
31 26 1 5 3
32 26 3 4 2
33
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Lance McCullers HOU SP
26 3 4 2
34
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Casey Mize DET SP
23 1 5 3
35 24 2 5 2
36 36 4 1 4
37 36 4 1 4
38 33 4 2 3
39 30 3 3 3
40
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Dustin May LAD RP
22 2 4 3
41 25 2 5 2
42
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Matthew Boyd DET SP
29 3 4 2
43 27 3 3 3
44 28 3 4 2
45
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Brendan McKay TB SP
24 2 4 3
46 30 3 3 3
47 27 1 4 3
48
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Chris Sale BOS SP
31 1 4 3
49 22 1 5 2
50 24 2 4 2
51 23 2 4 2
52 26 3 4 1
53 27 3 4 1
54 25 2 4 2
55 24 2 4 2
56 28 3 3 2
57
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Marcus Stroman NYM SP
29 3 3 2
58
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Matt Manning DET SP
22 1 4 2
59 22 1 4 2
60 21 1 4 2
61
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Luis Patino SD SP
20 1 4 2
62 23 1 4 2
63 33 3 2 2
64
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Hyun-Jin Ryu TOR SP
33 3 2 2
65 33 3 2 2
66 30 3 3 1
67 34 3 2 2
68
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Kenta Maeda MIN SP
32 3 2 2
69 23 1 4 2
70 20 1 5 1
71 20 1 4 2
72 28 3 3 1
73 28 3 3 1
74 28 2 3 2
75
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Andrew Heaney LAA SP
29 2 3 2
76
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Masahiro Tanaka NYY SP
31 2 3 2
77 28 1 4 2
78 25 2 3 2
79 27 2 4 1
80
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Griffin Canning LAA SP
24 2 4 1
81
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Domingo German NYY SP
27 1 4 2
82 27 2 4 1
83 25 2 4 1
84 27 2 3 2
85 27 2 3 2
86 32 3 2 1
87 34 3 1 2
88
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Jake Odorizzi MIN SP
30 3 2 1
89
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Edward Cabrera MIA RP
22 1 4 1
90 24 1 4 1
91 24 1 3 2
92 21 1 4 1
93 21 1 4 1
94 20 1 4 1
95 22 1 3 2
96
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Michael Pineda MIN SP
31 1 3 2
97 27 2 3 1
98 27 1 3 2
99 25 2 3 1
100 24 2 3 1

Dynasty Rankings: SP | RP | OF | SS | 1B | 3B | 2B | C