Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Cedric Mullins, Anthony DeSclafani worth buying into?
So are we ready to believe in a few of these mid-career breakouts?
By
Chris Towers
•
1 min read
When should skepticism about a hot start turn into trust? How much new evidence should you need before you start to buy in? And what's the bigger risk, overreacting to a hot start or underreacting and missing a potential breakout? In April, these are probably the biggest questions Fantasy Baseball players have to account for, especially when it comes to your waiver-wire claims.
There's no right answer, but generally speaking, you should be more inclined to buy into a hot start from a player who has made a tangible change to his game. And there may not be a more tangible one so far than the change Cedric Mullins has made: He abandoned switch hitting, and it seems to have turned him into a much better hitter.
Mullins hit just .225/.290/.342 in 418 plate appearances across his first three seasons, but he was especially hopeless from the right side of the plate. He hit .147/.250/.189 as a right-handed batting facing left-handed pitching -- that's pitcher production, essentially. He decided to bat only from the left side this season and, after his two-homer game Monday against the Yankees, is hitting .365/.419/.576 for the season with two steals and three homers while batting leadoff for the Orioles. And, given the changes he's made, it makes sense to buy in, at least a little.
To be clear, I'm not expecting Mullins to challenge for a batting title or anything, and he'll surely fall short of this pace. But he's also clearly an improved hitter, one who could be a decent source of batting average -- maybe in the .280 range isn't out of the question. And he could hit, say, 15 homers while stealing 20-plus bases.
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Is Mullins a superstar all of a sudden? No, of course not. But, I'm willing to bet that he can be someone worth starting in all five-outfielder leagues moving forward, and potentially any category-based leagues beyond that. The changes he's made matter, and it's worth buying in.
Here's who else we're looking at on the waiver wire from Monday's action:
Tuesday's Waiver Wire Targets
DeSclafani's complete game Monday was against the Rockies on the road, which might be the best matchup in baseball at this point -- that's why he was one of the best streamers out there for this week. But it wasn't all about a choice matchup. DeSclafani is off to a very good start to the season, sporting a 2.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with better than a strikeout per inning, and it may not just be a fluke -- remember, he had a 3.89 ERA with better than a strikeout per inning in 2019 when he was with the Reds. He hasn't been a consistently good pitcher in his career, but it's worth noting that DeSclafani is pitching half his games in Oracle Park, a much better home park than the Great American Ballpark, where he had a 4.62 ERA for his career. Away from GABP, he has a 3.89 mark. He might just be a solid mid-rotation arm for your Fantasy squad the rest of the season.
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Longoria has underperformed his expected stats (per Statcast) by quite a bit over the years -- he has a .338 xwOBA since 2015 compared to a .324 wOBA in that span, and in both 2019 and 2020, he underperformed by that metric by more than .029 in each season. He's still underperforming in 2021, but this time around, he's crushing the ball so much that it doesn't matter. He ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity, 94th percentile in barrel rate, and 100th percentile in hard-hit rate, while walking 14.1% of the time and striking out only 21.9% of the time. You can't be sure Longoria will continue to hit this well, but he went 2 for 2 with three RBI Monday, and at this point, it's worth riding while he's hot.
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The Royals have really struggled to find an answer for the ninth inning, but Staumont may be it. He has their past two saves after closing out a 3-2 win Monday, and he was warming up Sunday when Wade Davis started to get into a bit of trouble late. Mike Matheny may prefer not to name a closer, but Staumont sure looks like the guy. His control issues could become a problem, but Staumont has a 3.41 FIP since the start of 2020, and might be the best option in this bullpen.
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I'm not sure Rogers is going to get the next save for the Twins, but he probably should. Alex Colome struggled yet again Monday, allowing a homer to Jordan Luplow in the 10th inning to lose the game. He has a 6.75 ERA through his first eight games, while Rogers has yet to allow an earned run over 9.1 innings of work. Most managers prefer not to have a lefty as their closer, but Rogers has done the job before, and had a 2.75 ERA working in a high-leverage role between 2017 and 2019 -- including a 30-save 2019. His 2020 4.05 ERA looks like the outlier, especially when the underlying numbers suggested he was as good as ever. Rogers is the best pitcher in the Twins bullpen, and at this point they probably can't afford not to use him as the closer.
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