Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Past time to stop doubting Caleb Smith

Heath Cummings admits his past failures and stops doubting Caleb Smith.

More Fantasy Baseball: Don't buy these four breakouts | Prospects Report

We all struggle at one level or another at giving up on prior beliefs and I am no different. It can be even harder to give up on disbelief. That's where I've been with Caleb Smith, but enough is enough.

Smith has now struck out 53 batters over 39.2 innings. That's quite obviously elite. There are still reasons to be concerned about his walks, but he's only walked four batters in his past 24 innings. Even taking his career 4.47 BB/9 into account, it's not hard to see how Smith could be a Robbie Ray-type, with low innings, elite strikeouts and an acceptable ERA.

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Speaking of that ERA, Smith's peripherals suggest his 3.63 ERA is real. He has a 3.24 FIP and a 3.55 SIERA. All three of those numbers are well above average. The fact is, a mid-3s ERA with elite strikeout numbers makes a very good Fantasy pitcher, even if he is short on innings, and pitches for a bad team. 

I've been slow to come around on Smith and doubted him for long enough. He needs to owned in 90 percent of leagues.

Vince Velasquez has had a season very similar to his career. Up and down, but hopefully back up again. Velasquez struck out 12 Giants on Thursday and only walked one in a quality start. You may still look at the ERA (5.05) and have trouble adding him, and I get it. But a lot of the credit for that ERA needs to go to the Atlanta Braves. He's made three starts against the Braves this season and given up 26 runs in 12.2 innings. Looking at his starts against everyone else gives reason for optimism.

In the five starts Velasquez has made against everyone else, he's allowed 11 runs in 28.1 innings. He's struck out 35 in those five starts and walked nine. I'm not here to say those are his real numbers, but I do think a 25 year-old with a career K/9 of 9.85 over nearly 300 innings needs to be owned, especially after a 12-strikeout performance.

Tyler Anderson didn't pitch on Thursday, is a Colorado Rockie and has an uninspiring 4.23 ERA that's a half run better than his FIP. He probably seems like a weird guy to feature in the waiver wire. But he's also arguably the very best two-start sleeper for next week. Anderson pitches twice on the road, in San Francisco and in San Diego. 

Obviously it's a huge positive for a Rockies pitcher to pitch in either of these parks. Now I'm sure someone is going to notice that Anderson has a career 4.93 ERA on the road, but that doesn't deter me. The Padres are the worst offense in baseball outside of Miami and the Giants haven't been much better. Anderson should be owned and started in all points leagues for this two-start week.

Ryon Healy homered again on Thursday, giving him six in his past 11 games. His ownership percentage gave me pause when I first glanced at it, because it means that he's basically owned in all leagues that require a corner infielder. The question now is whether he can be a starting option at either first, third or utility. If you're in to the hot-hand approach, the answer is quite obvious. Even if you aren't, it's time to roster Healy.

Healy now has 964 career plate appearances and a .280/.312/.480 slash line. His 162-game pace is for 30 home runs and 88 RBI. He doesn't walk, which hurts in points leagues, but his strikeout rate is just about league average, or better than average for a power hitter. There's a good chance that any one team has three better options at 1B, 3B, and U than Healy, but I find it highly unlikely that all 12 teams in a standard points league does. Healy is still underowned.

Alen Hanson is the anti-Healy. He actually was a top 100 prospect from 2013-2015, and he's done almost nothing in the major leagues. But he's doing enough right now to warrant consideration in leagues where you need a middle infielder. In 12 games this season he's hit three home runs and stolen two bases. Like Healy, he's not walking, but he strikes out even less. If anything, he's been a little unlucky, with a .258 BABIP. 

While we really don't expect the power to last, this is a guy who stole 35-plus bases three times in the minor leagues, and he's still just 25 years old. I'm adding him in any categories league that requires a middle infielder.