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Last week, we took a look at the second half's top 10 players since the All-Star break, as well as the five best and worst teams. In this week's edition, let's take a look at the 10 most surprising second-half players, as well as the five most disappointing performers:

T E N   M O S T   S U R P R I S I N G
Orlando Hernandez, SP, N.Y. Yankees
Stats: 7-1 record, 2.82 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, 77 strikeouts, 76 2/3 innings, .660 OPS allowed, 13 starts

Who would have guessed that a pitcher desperately pressed into starting duty on the final day of baseball's traditional "first half" would put together this kind of a second-half run? Yankees fans and El Duque's Fantasy owners were raving after his five-inning, two-run performance to beat Tampa Bay on July 11, but at the time no one was expecting a pitcher who hadn't thrown a major-league pitch since the 2002 Division Series to stay completely healthy, let alone go on to post a 8-0 record in his first 13 starts of the season. Hernandez will be hard-pressed to sustain this kind of pace over an entire year, and as a 35-year-old next season he projects as more risk than reward. However, there's not a lot in El Duque's stats to this point to indicate he'll be a complete bust. As long as your expectations are reasonable, he could very well remain a second- or third-tier Fantasy starter.
Aaron Rowand, OF, Chicago White Sox
Stats: .325 average, 13 home runs, 44 RBI, 8 stolen bases, 55 runs scored, .939 OPS, 70 games
Anyone who watched Rowand during spring training might have expected a mild breakout year. After all, he did bat .383 with three homers and 15 RBI in 17 exhibition contests. But after a .226-2-4-1 April, myriad Fantasy owners probably threw Rowand back to the scrap heap. He would go on to hit .324 with 20 homers and 61 RBI the rest of the way, serving as one of the White Sox's few bright spots. Rowand might not strike you as a potential superstar, but he did show signs of hitting promise in 2003, when he batted .287 in 93 games. He probably won't ever become more powerful than this and could also stand to draw a few more walks, but at least Rowand looks like a safe bet in the batting average category.
Bartolo Colon, SP, Anaheim
Stats: 11-4 record, 3.90 ERA, 1.268 WHIP, 76 strikeouts, 97 innings, .691 OPS allowed, 15 starts
Many players need time to adjust to new surroundings, and Colon seems like no exception. He was toasted to the tune of a 6-8 record and 6.38 ERA, the latter mark the highest among any qualified starter. Anaheim has since agreed with him, however, since the All-Star break he has racked up more wins than any pitcher not named Johan Santana. Some promising signs for Colon's future with the Angels: He was 6-0 against division rival Texas, becoming the second pitcher in the past 10 years to win that many games against one opponent (Andy Pettitte beat Baltimore six times in 2003), and is 9-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 11 starts against the Angels' three division rivals. Expect Colon to get closer to his normal career rates in his second season in Anaheim.
Rich Harden, SP, Oakland
Stats: 8-2 record, 3.49 ERA, 1.173 WHIP, 76 strikeouts, 98 innings, .639 OPS allowed, 15 starts
Amazingly enough, Harden has been the Athletics' most effective starter during the season's second half. That's partly due to the "Big Three's" struggles -- Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito are a combined 17-12 with a 4.95 ERA in 40 second-half starts -- but it's also a sign that Harden has arrived as a solid Fantasy starter. He seems most at home at pitcher-friendly Network Associates Coliseum, where he's 6-3 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 15 starts. Harden will be just 23 next opening day, so he'll be a prime candidate to step up to the second tier of Fantasy starters in 2005.
J.T. Snow, 1B, San Francisco
Stats: .388 average, 8 home runs, 42 RBI, 2 stolen bases, 39 runs scored, 1.141 OPS, 56 games
Although Snow is just two plate appearances shy of the qualification rules for batting average since the All-Star break -- 3.1 per game -- his .388 mark would place him second to only Ichiro Suzuki during the season's second half if he plays enough in the next four days. Snow, a six-time Gold Glove award winner, is already assured of finishing with the highest batting average of his career, currently standing 36 points above his previous career best of .289, set nine years ago. That's not bad work for a 36-year-old. Snow's problem is that he just can't handle southpaws -- he's a .244 hitter against them this season and .226 for his career. Pedro Feliz still seems like the Giants' future at first base, even if the two platoon in 2005, so it's best to regard Snow's outburst merely as a fluke.
Craig Monroe, OF, Detroit
Stats: .317 average, 14 home runs, 37 RBI, 1 stolen base, 33 runs scored, .995 OPS, 50 games
For the second straight year, Monroe capitalized on several injuries to Detroit regulars in becoming quite a Fantasy surprise. Entering Thursday's games, he has the same number of second-half homers (14) and RBI (37) as he did in 2003, but the difference is that his batting average is 63 points better than it was after the break a year ago. Only 14 players with as many plate appearances as Monroe during the second half have higher than his .995 OPS, a sure sign that he should enter spring training with a starting job his to lose. He might never become a superstar, but he's a wise pick to fill out a Fantasy outfield.
John Thomson, SP, Atlanta
Stats: 8-1 record, 2.43 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 61 strikeouts, 89 innings, .628 OPS allowed, 14 starts
For half a season, Fantasy owners were beginning to doubt the Leo Mazzone factor, which says that the Braves pitching coach can turn any pitcher into a Fantasy stud. Thomson was just 6-7 with a 4.82 ERA in 18 first-half starts, but like Mike Hampton a year ago, he rebounded nicely after the All-Star break. Of course, Hampton struggled in the first half of his second season with the Braves this year, so Thomson is hardly guaranteed of keeping up this performance for the entire 2005 season. Nevertheless, his 11-1 record, 2.26 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 15 starts against the Braves' division rivals is extremely encouraging regarding his chances at a breakout campaign.
Tony Batista, 3B, Montreal
Stats: .253 average, 21 home runs, 68 RBI, 5 stolen bases, 45 runs scored, .838 OPS, 72 games
He has nearly doubled his homer output from the first half, when he offered owners .232-11-42-9 numbers. Batista chose a good time for a power surge; he'll be a free agent this winter. His low batting average is certainly frustrating, but the fact that he managed the second-most homers (32) and RBI (110) of his career despite playing for a terrible Expos offense is a positive sign. If you can live with an average in the .240s, Batista could be a decent bargain in 2005 drafts, provided he winds up in a favorable situation.
Juan Rivera, OF, Montreal
Stats: .356 average, 6 home runs, 25 RBI, 6 stolen bases, 28 runs scored, .927 OPS, 64 games
It took him three years and a team change, but Rivera finally seems to be getting comfortable at the major-league level. Only five other qualified hitters have hit for a higher average since the All-Star break -- and three of them are otherworldly stars Suzuki, Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols. What has helped Rivera is improved patience at the plate, logging 20 walks compared to 17 strikeouts in 208 at-bats since the break. The Expos' move to Washington can only help Rivera, since the team might finally begin building toward contending, meaning more lineup support. He'll probably come cheap in 2005 drafts, and might be in line for a breakout campaign at age 26.
David DeJesus, OF, Kansas City
Stats: .308 average, 7 home runs, 33 RBI, 7 stolen bases, 49 runs scored, .829 OPS, 70 games
He's yet another youngster who has capitalized on regular playing time on one of baseball's worst teams. DeJesus seemed overmatched in his first month with the Royals following the Carlos Beltran trade, but the low-pressure atmosphere in Kansas City since the break has clearly helped him. He batted .164 in 67 first-half at-bats, but has since surged to record 86 second-half hits, the 12th-highest total in the majors during that span. Many scouts compared DeJesus to Beltran in his minor-league days, and he could very well take the next step towards that level in 2005. One concern: He needs to improve his baserunning after being caught stealing in 10 of 17 tries since the break.
F I V E   M O S T   D I S A P P O I N T I N G
Mark Mulder, SP, Oakland
Stats: 5-5 record, 5.87 ERA, 1.554 WHIP, 48 strikeouts, 92 innings, .870 OPS allowed, 14 starts
From All-Star starter to potential reliever for the Division Series, Mulder's Fantasy value has reached both ends of the spectrum the past two and a half months. He matched Kenny Rogers for the first-half lead with 12 wins, had a 3.21 ERA and 1.192 WHIP and looked like the early favorite for AL Cy Young honors when he set foot on the mound at Minute Maid Park in the All-Star Game. Since then, however, Mulder has battled diminished velocity and shaky command -- he has walked more batters than he has struck out in six of 14 second-half starts. He hasn't looked this bad in a half-season since his rookie campaign of 2000, which begs the question whether he's battling an undisclosed injury? The winter's rest should do Mulder some good, but with 223 2/3 innings already under his belt and a postseason potentially on the way, he'll be a breakdown candidate in 2005.
Danny Graves, RP, Cincinnati
Stats: 0-3 record, 8 saves, 7.23 ERA, 1.982 WHIP, 11 strikeouts, 18 2/3 innings, .967 OPS allowed, 19 games
Remember back on June 2, when Graves had 26 saves and was well on pace to break Bobby Thigpen's all-time single-season record of 57? Even as late as the All-Star break, Graves was the major-league leader with 33 saves, keeping him on pace for 61, still ahead of Thigpen's mark. Since then, however, Graves has slipped into his usual second-half fade, even missing time with back spasms. For his career, he now has 102 saves before the All-Star break, compared to 70 afterward. That says one thing: If you get Graves next year, trade him before July.
Kenny Rogers, SP, Texas
Stats: 5-6 record, 5.46 ERA, 1.697 WHIP, 55 strikeouts, 89 innings, .894 OPS allowed, 15 starts
Here's how devastating Rogers' second-half fade has been: At one point, he was 12-2 with a 3.65 ERA and garnering serious consideration for the AL's starting assignment in the All-Star Game. Now, he's about to finish with the third-worst ERA (4.75) in 12 years since being moved to the rotation in 1993, and is close to setting career highs in hits, runs and home runs allowed. Rogers turns 40 in November, so expect his 2005 numbers to be more like the ones since the break.
Jack Wilson, SS, Pittsburgh
Stats: .280 average, 3 home runs, 24 RBI, 2 stolen bases, 35 runs scored, .723 OPS, 72 games
He sure came out of nowhere during the season's first half, with a .332 batting average and 118 hits, the latter total ranking him fourth in the majors. Unfortunately, Wilson's bat cooled somewhat after his 0-for-2 performance in the All-Star Game -- he hit just .255 (55-for-216) in his first 53 games after the break. He's simply not the kind of player who can be expected to provide All-Star caliber numbers on an everyday basis. Wilson is just hitting the prime of his career, so he could repeat his breakout 2004 totals next season, but keep in mind we might have already seen his best.
Sammy Sosa, OF, Chicago Cubs
Stats: .227 average, 17 home runs, 39 RBI, 0 stolen bases, 34 runs scored, .743 OPS, 67 games
Although Sosa has comparable production numbers since the break to before it -- he had 16 homers and 39 RBI in the first half -- he has endured a steep decline in the all-important batting average category. He batted .279 in the season's first half, but has since seen that mark go south along with his spot in the Chicago batting lineup. This marks the third straight year in which Sosa's batting average has dipped 43 or more points after the All-Star break, but this time, his .227 mark represents his lowest in any half-season in 13 years. He'll turn 36 in November, so it's possible his recent struggles indicate the beginning of a career decline. They're at least enough to ensure he shouldn't be selected in the first couple rounds of any draft in 2005.

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