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One of the more popular statistical tools Fantasy owners have gravitated toward the past several seasons are first- and second-half splits. Most believe that players who finish the previous year on a high note become strong candidates to break out in a given season, while others who slump after the All-Star break could be entering a career decline.

Of course, at this late stage of the season, Fantasy owners are more likely looking only at a player's 2004 cumulative statistics, disregarding which players have been the best since the All-Star break. You might not even think about breaking down this year's numbers by first and second halves until February, when you're beginning your draft preparation for 2005.

Why not get a head start on the competition? Let's take a look at some of the best and worst second-half performers to see what prime Fantasy nuggets we can uncover.

Leading things off, let's examine team performance since the All-Star break. The following two charts show the five teams with the best and worst winning percentages in the second half:

F I V E   B E S T   T E A M S
Team W L PCT. R Rk. OPS Rk. RA Rk. OPSA Rk.
St. Louis 45 19 .703 344 7 .823 2 253 2 .700 2
Atlanta 44 21 .677 338 9 .801 10 250 1 .702 3
Boston 43 22 .662 388 1 .837 1 306 15 .736 7
Minnesota 41 24 .631 328 14 .791 11 267 4 .689 1
Oakland 40 25 .615 326 17 .791 12 289 8 .716 4
Stat key: W (Wins), L (Losses), PCT. (Winning percentage), R (Runs scored), OPS (On-base plus slugging percentage), RA (Runs allowed), OPSA (On-base plus slugging percentage allowed), Rk. (Ranking)

It might seem like a wise decision to avoid fringe Fantasy players on teams that play these five second-half powerhouses in the season's final week, but keep in mind that two -- Minnesota and St. Louis -- have already clinched their divisions, and Atlanta should have the National League East title in hand sometime this weekend. Those three teams will probably be resting their regulars more often and setting up their rotations for the postseason, so don't be too concerned about poor matchups if your players face them.

F I V E   W O R S T   T E A M S
Team W L PCT. R Rk. OPS Rk. RA Rk. OPSA Rk.
Cincinnati 22 41 .349 288 24 .758 20 412 30 .869 30
Tampa Bay 22 41 .349 275 26 .726 26 353 25 .776 19
N.Y. Mets 22 43 .338 265 27 .708 27 334 20 .783 21
Milwaukee 18 46 .281 212 29 .681 29 330 18 .771 16
Arizona 16 46 .258 197 30 .672 30 349 24 .794 24
Stat key: W (Wins), L (Losses), PCT. (Winning percentage), R (Runs scored), OPS (On-base plus slugging percentage), RA (Runs allowed), OPSA (On-base plus slugging percentage allowed), Rk. (Ranking)

Bad baseball teams sometimes play over their heads in September because they're more relaxed and sometimes enjoy the role of spoiler. But for the most part, a poor team from July through mid-September remains a poor team in the final week. That's great news if you own players on Boston, the Chicago Cubs or San Diego -- those teams are still competing for precious postseason spots and will play at least three games against one of these five bottom-feeders in the season's final week.

So who are the best individual players of the season's second half? The following 10 players have, statistically speaking, been the most dominant Fantasy forces since the All-Star break:

T E N   B E S T   P L A Y E R S
Johan Santana, SP, Minnesota
Stats: 12-0, 1.16 ERA, 0.729 WHIP, 118 K, 93 1/3 IP, .437 OPSA, 13 GS
What he has done since the All-Star break is unbelievable, and it's also worth mentioning Santana's hot streak actually extends back to June 9. Santana is 17-2 with a 1.33 ERA, 0.681 WHIP and 193 strikeouts in 20 starts during that span, numbers that quite clearly should earn him the AL Cy Young. Consider that during the second half, the southpaw has never allowed more than three runs, seven hits or four walks in a start. Santana's ratios -- 1.74 walks per nine innings, 0.58 homers allowed per nine, 11.38 strikeouts per nine and 6.56 strikeouts to walks -- are right up there with the best halves in baseball history, and at this rate it's hard to say he won't enter 2005 as the consensus top Fantasy pitcher.
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Seattle
Stats: .443 AVG, 5 HR, 25 RBI, 14 SB, 51 R, 1.017 OPS, 66 G
Kiss his poor second-half history goodbye. Suzuki, who needs just 11 hits in the Mariners' final 10 games to break George Sisler's single-season record, already has 128 hits since the All-Star break, a truly staggering total. That's more hits and a higher second-half batting average than any player in at least 15 years -- Johnny Damon (127 hits in 2000) and Barry Bonds (.404 average in 2002) are the only ones who even came close. Suzuki has re-established himself as a clear-cut first-round Fantasy pick, and he'll be about the best batting average/stolen base combo you can find in 2005 drafts.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Los Angeles
Stats: .371 AVG, 25 HR, 59 RBI, 4 SB, 50 R, 1.165 OPS, 63 G
Much of the reason people are saying he's more deserving of National League MVP honors than Bonds is the fact that Beltre has carried the Dodgers offense on his shoulders for the entire second half. He leads all major-leaguers in second-half home runs, and ranks among the top 10 in hits (91), RBI, runs scored, on-base percentage (.434) and slugging percentage (.731). It might have seemed hard to believe that Beltre, historically a strong second-half player, would improve after such a strong first half this year, but he pulled it off. Wherever he lands as a free agent this winter, he'll probably again rank among the best third basemen in 2005, especially if he's freed of Dodger Stadium's pitching-friendly environment.
Jim Edmonds, OF, St. Louis
Stats: .365 AVG, 21 HR, 55 RBI, 6 SB, 48 R, 1.292 OPS, 60 G
He wore down terribly during the second half of 2003, fighting injuries and batting just .214 with 11 homers and 22 RBI in 49 games. But this year, Edmonds has quelled talk that he's in the downside of his career, registering second-half totals that rival those from his impressive 2003 first half (.303-28-67 in 88 games). While there is truth that his body has taken much abuse from his free-for-all defensive style, Edmonds still is just 34, meaning he's probably at least a couple years away from a steep decline. He'll be hard-pressed to repeat these totals in 2005, but don't expect a big dropoff.
Jake Peavy, SP, San Diego
Stats: 8-3, 2.17 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, 94 K, 91 1/3 IP, .644 OPSA, 14 GS
Most baseball players are well aware of their statistical exploits, and the way Peavy has been pitching since returning from the disabled list on July 2, you have to think he's aware he's on the verge of an ERA crown. He needs just 7 2/3 more innings in his final two starts -- a rather simple task -- to qualify for and effectively guarantee himself the title, and he'll be facing one of the second half's worst offenses (Arizona) in one of those turns. Among qualified starters, only Santana has a lower ERA since the All-Star break. Peavy has long been compared to Greg Maddux but with more strikeouts, and these numbers should confirm that.
Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis
Stats: .351 AVG, 22 HR, 54 RBI, 1 SB, 52 R, 1.130 OPS, 61 G
Yawn. Another half season, another set of dominant offensive statistics from Mr. Pujols. The fourth-year Cardinals slugger continues to rake it, setting a career high with 44 home runs and becoming only the fourth player in history to top 100 RBI in each of his first four seasons (Hall of Famers Joe DiMaggio, Al Simmons and Ted Williams are the others). By the way, if you're looking for any reason to doubt that Pujols has been an elite Fantasy slugger since Day 1 of his big-league career, you won't find it here. He has never hit for a higher average or belted more homers after the All-Star break than he has in 2004, and only twice has he had more second-half RBI (64 in 2001, 61 in 2002).
Randy Johnson, SP, Arizona
Stats: 4-7, 2.31 ERA, 0.878 WHIP, 127 K, 101 1/3 IP, .541 OPSA, 14 GS
A story in Wednesday's Arizona Republic reported that the Big Unit was actually disappointed to learn of his exclusion from a recent broadcast report about the NL's top Cy Young candidates. He has every right to be frustrated. Johnson is on track to set a new personal best in WHIP (0.889), beating the 1.011 mark he registered just three years ago. He leads the majors in strikeouts (272), and ranks fourth in ERA (2.69). Unfortunately, despite his efforts, Johnson is still just .500 on the year (14-14 record), mainly due to the paltry 3.86 runs of support his Diamondbacks mates have provided him. Fantasy owners are probably going to begin doubting his ability entering 2005 if he's largely ignored in the Cy Young voting, but all of his numbers outside of his win-loss totals suggest he's just about as strong now as he has ever been at any point in his career. If you can live with a few less wins, he'll still be an ace in 2005.
Melvin Mora, 3B, Baltimore
Stats: .333 AVG, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 4 SB, 44 R, .986 OPS, 62 G
He's another player who came into the season with a terrible second-half history, and a hamstring injury cast doubt on his ability to keep up his torrid first-half pace in early July. Nevertheless, Mora quickly put an end to those questions after returning shortly after the All-Star break, racking up more home runs and RBI than he had before the break in four fewer games. He was never expected to become this good a hitter, but it's nice to see a scrappy, hard-working player like this succeed. Even though it feels natural to expect a slight decline in Mora's statistics next year, it's probably not going to be by much.
Brad Lidge, RP, Houston
Stats: 3-1, 18 SV, 1.73 ERA, 1.046 WHIP, 62 K, 36 1/3 IP, .593 OPSA, 30 G
These days, closers seem like a dime a dozen. So why should Lidge, whose 18 saves since the All-Star break are six fewer than major-league leader John Smoltz, make this list? Keep in mind that saves aren't all a closer can bring to a Fantasy team, and Lidge has pitched often enough to make his dominant numbers in the other categories really matter. For instance, he has 140 strikeouts in 86 1/3 innings on the season, marking the highest strikeout total by any reliever since Rob Dibble's 141 in 1989. That's virtually the equivalent of a middle-tier starting pitcher, and you can be sure his miniscule ERA and WHIP numbers are taking effect on those categories since he has thrown more relief innings than all but five other pitchers.
Mark Loretta, 2B, San Diego
Stats: .363 AVG, 8 HR, 38 RBI, 3 SB, 43 R, .975 OPS, 59 G
He's no Suzuki in batting average or Beltre in homers or RBI, but Loretta has quietly been among the most consistent, underrated Fantasy players all season. Would anyone have expected that, since the All-Star break, he has the majors' sixth-highest batting average and 24th-best OPS? Wasn't Petco Park supposed to neutralize the offensive ability of the San Diego lineup, reducing a guy like Loretta into a Mark Grudzielanek-type batter? It didn't happen. Loretta has already socked 11 homers out of cozy Petco, and he has essentially paced the Padres' entire offense as the team remains in the hunt for the wild card. Fantasy owners are probably going to learn enough about him that he won't be nearly the steal in 2005 as he was this season, but he's still going to be an excellent middle-round, reliable player to fill out your second base or middle infield spots.

Check back next week, when we'll take a look at some of the most surprising and disappointing second-half performers.

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