In the Northeast, March has a reputation of being a month that 'comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb,' beginning with strong stormy weather before giving way to the soothing climate of springtime. In honor of March's arrival, The Windup takes a look at pitchers that started off strong last season but finished rather meekly. While going after these pitchers in an auction or a snake draft is recommended, Fantasy leaguers should try not to spend too much on them. Also, field a strong staff with good reserves just in case these pitchers falter in the second half again.
Pedro Astacio, New York Mets: He was sensational before the All-Star break last season, going 8-3 with a 3.17 ERA. After the break, he was the complete opposite, compiling a 7.00 ERA with a 4-8 record. He was diagnosed with a torn right labrum after the 2001 season and chose to rest the injury rather than have surgery. Although he claimed otherwise, Astacio's arm seemed to hinder him down the stretch. Astacio should be more consistent this season if he remains healthy. He is normally a pitcher who remains solid throughout the season. But don't bid more than $2 or $3 for him and hold off on selecting him until the late rounds of a draft.
John Burkett, Boston Red Sox: The veteran seemed to get worse and worse as the season progressed. After compiling a 2.78 ERA and a 6-0 record in the first two months, Burkett went 0-4 with a 9.64 ERA in August. He rebounded to contribute a 2.71 ERA in September, but the damage was already done; his low spot in the Red Sox rotation had already been solidified. Burkett is projected to be the fifth starter and is only worth a flier in AL-only leagues.
Freddy Garcia, Seattle Mariners: While his team's struggles in the second half of 2002 made it more difficult for him to win, Garcia should also be held accountable -- he was 5-5 with a 5.66 ERA after the All-Star break. Garcia also struggled after the break in 2001 when he went 8-5 after going 10-1 before it. Despite his second-half struggles, Garcia is still a young pitcher approaching his prime. He is also productive in every major starting category. Prepare to bid between $20-$25 for his services.
Rodrigo Lopez, Baltimore Orioles: A sensational 6-0 July pulled Lopez's ledger to 12-3 with a 2.90 ERA. But he went 3-6 the rest of the way with a 4.94 ERA. While Lopez was able to fool hitters early, he found it difficult to get hitters out toward the end of the year. It remains to be seen if he can be successful in 2003 or if he was just a one-year wonder. Don't offer more than $10 for his services.
Jamie Moyer, Seattle Mariners: September proved to be Moyer's worst month as he went 0-2 with a 4.83 ERA in five starts. He was 8-4 with a 3.20 ERA before the All-Star break. Proceed with caution when considering adding this 40-year-old to your squad. He might be headed for a meltdown. So try not to bid more than $10 for him and hold off on selecting him until the middle rounds of a AL-only draft.
Mike Mussina, New York Yankees: Weird is the only way you can describe Mussina's 2002 season. He had a winning record in every month in which he compiled an ERA over 3.70, including June and July, when he had ERAs of 5.35 and 5.22. But his only losing month was in September, when he went 2-3 despite a sparkling 1.48 ERA. Mussina has been erratic in the ERA category in the past two seasons. Look for him to win a lot of games if he can keep his overall ERA below 4.50. He is well worth a bid of between $20-$25.
Vicente Padilla, Philadelphia Phillies: In his first major-league season as a starter, he was strong before the All-Star break, going 10-5 with a 3.05 ERA. But he struggled afterward, going 4-6 with a 3.60 ERA. His value is a bit murky. While he has a versatile arsenal of pitches, it remains to be seen if he has the stamina necessary to be a good starter for an entire season. Don't bid more than $10 for him in an NL-only league.
Odalis Perez, Los Angeles Dodgers: Like Padilla, 2002 was also Perez's first full season as a starter. But Perez did remain reasonably strong down the stretch. His 5-6 record after the break is a bit misleading considering that Perez compiled a 3.24 ERA over that stretch. Don't hesitate to bid on Perez -- just don't spend more than $25.
Joel Pineiro, Seattle Mariners: He was superb before the break, going 9-3 with a 2.70 ERA. Pineiro was strong afterward, too, compiling a 3.82 ERA, but he managed to win just five of his nine decisions. This young pitcher has good stuff and will only get better. He should be more consistent this season. Prepare to spend between $10-$15 for him. Snatch him towards the middle of a snake draft.
Kenny Rogers, free agent: The aging veteran was 9-5 with a 3.57 ERA before the break, 4-3 with a 4.16 ERA after. His decline after the break should be considered normal. Rogers has compiled a higher ERA after the break in each of the past three seasons. He just appears to be a pitcher who does better at the beginning of the season. Although he is 38, his age probably won't be a factor this season. Rogers has long converted from power pitcher to a control style. The only real issue with Rogers is what team he will pitch for; few teams have expressed interest. Avoid drafting him or making a bid for his services until he signs. He should be worth between $5-$10 when he finally does latch on.
Curt Schilling, Arizona Diamondbacks: Before September 2002 he was favored to beat out teammate Randy Johnson for the Cy Young Award. But he went 2-2 with a 5.47 ERA in September and might have cost a few teams a Fantasy championship. That shouldn't be a problem this season. Schilling went through a rigorous training regimen during the offseason to improve his stamina. Even if he does fade in the final month, he will still be worth the risk. After all, he did finish 23-7 with a 3.23 ERA and 316 Ks. Prepare to spend between $25-$33 for his services. He will be a definite first-round selection in any format.
Jason Simontacchi, St. Louis Cardinals: This journeyman has the look of a one-year wonder. After going 7-1 with a 2.77 ERA before the break, he was a mediocre 4-4 with a 4.96 ERA after. Now he must compete for the final spot in the Cardinals roster. His freefall in the second half of 2002 makes him a risky player to draft in a mixed league. Don't bid more than $3 for him in an NL-only league.
