2021 Blue Grass Stakes odds, predictions: Expert who nailed Tampa Bay Derby reveals surprising picks

Bob Weir just locked in his 2021 Blue Grass Stakes predictions, bets and picks

Essential Quality returns to the site of the best victory of his young career when he leaves the starting gate on Saturday in the 2021 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Ky. Trained by Brad Cox, Essential Quality won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland in November. The victory helped him earn champion 2-year-old honors last year and established him as one of the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby. 

For Saturday, Essential Quality is the 3-5 favorite in the 2021 Blue Grass Stakes odds. The Chad Brown-trained Highly Motivated is getting 3-1 odds in the 2021 Blue Grass Stakes field of nine. Post time for the $800,000 race is 6:35 p.m. ET. With several lightly-raced horses ready to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what racing insider Bob Weir has to say before making any 2021 Blue Grass Stakes picks.

Based in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., Weir has been handicapping and following horse racing since reading Andy Beyer's landmark handicapping book "Picking Winners" in the late 1980s. Weir is highly invested in the Beyer Speed Figure, a number assigned to every race run by a horse that measures how fast the horse ran. He uses the figure as the backbone of his handicapping. In fact, thanks to his proficiency with speed figures and top-tier handicapping, he landed one of just eight spots on Beyer's figure-making team in 2017, a position he holds to this day.

Weir's methodology has produced multiple five-figure days. In 2014, he hit a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar. The following year, he nailed a $31,000 Pick 6 at Gulfstream Park. In 2016 and 2017, Weir qualified for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas.

Last year, his first for SportsLine, Weir was on fire. On June 13 Weir hit a $2 superfecta in the Ogden Phipps Stakes that paid a whopping $1,039. He crushed the exacta and trifecta in the Forego Stakes in August for $1,134.50. He hit the late Pick 4 at Belmont Park on June 18, June 19, June 25, July 2 and July 5 with the June 25 score returning a whopping $2,159.50. And last month he crushed the exacta in the Tampa Bay Derby for $1,414. Those are just some of his hits for SportsLine.

Now, Weir has handicapped the 2021 Blue Grass Stakes field, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can only see them here.

Top 2021 Blue Grass Stakes predictions

After studying the past performances and Beyer Speed Figures of every horse in the race, Weir is not making Essential Quality his top pick even though the horse is the 3-5 favorite. A Godolphin homebred, Essential Quality is a perfect 4-for-4 in his career. He is coming off a professional 4¼-length victory in the Southwest Stakes on Feb. 27.

But bettors have reason to wonder if he will be fully cranked up to run his best on Saturday. Godolphin has won just about every major race around the world -- except for the Kentucky Derby. Winning on the first Saturday in May, not the first Saturday in April, is ultimate goal for the ownership. "Saturday might be the day to beat him," Weir tells SportsLine. 

However, however, Weir is high on Hidden Stash, even though he is one of the longest shots in the field at 20-1. A son of Constitution, Hidden Stash has two wins, one second and two thirds in six career starts. He is coming off a second place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 6.

But Hidden Stash has proven he likes the Keeneland surface; he picked up his first career victory at the track, winning by three lengths. In addition, he drew well by getting the No. 1 post. The rail draw should help him save ground, which will be key in this nine-horse field.

How to make 2021 Blue Grass Stakes picks, bets

Weir's top pick is a horse who is "poised to improve." He's also high on a double-digit long shot who is "stepping up." Weir is including these horses in his 2021 Blue Grass Stakes bets, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.

So who wins the Blue Grass Stakes 2021? And which long shot is a must-back? Check out the latest Blue Grass Stakes odds 2021 below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir's picks for the Blue Grass Stakes.

Program #	Horse	Odds
1	Hidden Stash	20-1
2	Untreated	10-1
3	Highly Motivated	3-1
4	Essential Quality	3-5
5	Rombauer	15-1
6	Leblon	50-1
7	Hush of a Storm	15-1
8	Sittin On Go	30-1
9	Keepmeinmind	8-1