A spot in the annual Run for the Roses will be on the line Saturday when 12 talented three-year-olds leave the starting gate in the 2021 Risen Star Stakes. The winner of the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star 2021 will receive 50 qualifying points towards the Kentucky Derby, virtually guaranteeing a ticket to Churchill Downs on May 1. Keepmeinmind is the 3-1 morning-line favorite in the 2021 Risen Star Stakes odds but is not likely to run, leaving Lecomte Stakes winner Midnight Bourbon (9-2) as the likely favorite in the 2021 Risen Star Stakes field.

Post time for the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes 2021 is 7:18 p.m. ET. With a wide-open 2021 Risen Star Stakes lineup ready to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what racing insider Bob Weir has to say before making any 2021 Risen Star Stakes picks.

Based in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., Weir has been handicapping and following horse racing since reading Andy Beyer's landmark handicapping book "Picking Winners" in the late 1980s. Weir is highly invested in the Beyer Speed Figure, a number assigned to every race run by a horse that measures how fast the horse ran. He uses the figure as the backbone of his handicapping. In fact, thanks to his proficiency with speed figures and top-tier handicapping, he landed one of just eight spots on Beyer's figure-making team in 2017, a position he holds to this day.

Weir's methodology has produced multiple five-figure days. In 2014, he hit a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar. The following year, he nailed a $31,000 Pick 6 at Gulfstream Park. In 2016 and 2017, Weir qualified for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas.

Last year, his first for SportsLine, Weir was on fire. On June 13, Weir hit a $2 superfecta in the Ogden Phipps Stakes that paid a whopping $1,039. He crushed the exacta and trifecta in the Forego Stakes in August for $1,134.50. He hit the late Pick 4 at Belmont Park on June 18, June 19, June 25, July 2 and July 5 with the June 25 score returning a whopping $2,159.50. Then, last weekend, he nailed the exacta in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and Sunday's Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park. Those are just some of his hits for SportsLine. Anyone who has followed Weir is way up.

Now, Weir has handicapped the 2021 Risen Star Stakes lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can only see his coveted picks here.

Top 2021 Risen Star Stakes predictions

One shocker: Weir is largely fading Senor Buscador, even though he is one of the top favorites at 6-1 and could leave the starting gate as the overall favorite with the scratch of Keepmeinmind. Trained by Todd Fincher and ridden by Luis Quinonez, Senor Buscador is a perfect two-for-two in his career. In his last race, the Springboard Mile at Remington Park, he earned a big Beyer Speed Figure of 93 despite being wide around the second turn.

However, Senor Buscador likes to rally from well back in the pack, a strategy that could lead to traffic issues or lost ground in a race with a large field of 12 like the Risen Star. "I'm concerned about his running style," Weir told SportsLine. "This late-running colt has not had trouble circling fields yet."

Another curveball: Weir is high on Carillo, even though he's a 15-1 long shot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. A son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags, Carillo made his career debut on Jan. 8, winning at Aqueduct by 2 3/4 lengths. After that victory, he was purchased for $875,000 and transferred to trainer Tom Amoss.

In his debut, Carillo was bumped on both sides at the start and dropped to last, but rallied to win and still earned a respectable 78 Beyer Speed Figure. "I'll be protecting underneath because of his top connections," Weir said. All of Weir's trifectas and superfectas will feature Carillo.

How to make 2021 Risen Star Stakes picks

Weir is also is high on a double-digit long shot who "can spice up" your exotics. He is including these horses in his 2021 Risen Star Stakes bets, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.

So who wins the Risen Star Stakes 2021? And which double-digit long shot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2021 Risen Star Stakes odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir's Risen Star Stakes picks.

2021 Risen Star Stakes odds, horses

Program #HorseOdds
1Starrininmydreams12-1
2Proxy8-1
3Beep Beep20-1
4Carillo15-1
5Senor Buscador6-1
6Midnight Bourbon6-1
7O Besos12-1
8Sermononthemount50-1
9Defeater12-1
10Santa Cruiser15-1
11Mandaloun9-2
12Keepmeinmind3-1
13Rightandjust15-1