Tiger Woods is back. How tired are you of those four words? Every December, it seems, we discuss Woods' return to golf following a back surgery or procedure. This time, we convince ourselves, it's going to be different. And yet every time, it's the same. Woods plays for a few months or half a year and then hurts it again, and we start the pattern all over again.

What is demonstrably different this time around, though, is that Woods had his damn spine fused together in April. If it breaks again, then he's probably done forever. With that in mind, let's take a look at some scenarios. I've made a nine-tile chart of what Woods' best-case, worst-case and most likely scenarios look like moving forward.

Let's jump in starting with this week and moving forward to the rest of his career.

Hero World Challenge

Best-case scenario: Woods plays in the second-to-last pairing on Sunday and finishes in the top five. Tennessee fans would be less excited about UT hiring Nick Saban away from Alabama than Tiger Woods fans would be about this scenario.

Worst-case scenario: Woods gets injured. That's the ultimate worst-case scenario. Woods said on Tuesday that his doctor told him it was going to be very difficult to break his back since it was fused together, bone on bone. So if he does, it's all over. "How hard is it to break a leg? It's not easy break a leg," said Woods. "Same thing, it's not easy to break that part of your back. I'm still trying to sink in that I can start doing things like that, start being more athletic but there's still some apprehension going forward and there's no doubt this week is a big step for me to be able to play golf and be explosive and hit shots."

Most likely scenario: Woods gets through four rounds and finishes 12th or 15th in the field of 18.

The 2018 season

Best: Woods plays a schedule of 10-15 events, including all four majors and contends on the weekend a couple of times. We can talk all day about Woods (allegedly) hitting the ball past Rickie Fowler and Dustin Johnson, but the reality is that Woods has not contended at a golf tournament in over two years. If he does that at all in 2018 then that's a major boost going into 2019.

Worst: Probably what happened last year because, like I noted above, that would likely be a wrap on his career. There is no next surgery. This is it. This is the end of the road. It's either going to work or it's not going to work. And because of that, I hope Woods takes it as slowly as possible.

Most likely: Woods plays 8-10 times including most of the majors but sits out two- or three-week stretches due to stiffness or soreness in his back. This would be equivalent to a 40-year-old NBA player playing three out of every five games or something similar. Woods contends once at a non-major (think: 2015 Wyndham) and Twitter melts into oblivion.

The rest of Tiger Woods' career

Best: Woods returns, plays 10 more years, wins four more tournaments to break the all-time PGA Tour record and wins another major (and Open or a Masters) at the age of 45 or 47. This is the best-case scenario. It is also the least likely.

Worst: I'm torn on this. I'm not sure if it's worse that Woods can't play because of injury or that he plays and plays poorly because he's old and just doesn't have the goods anymore. I supposed I would go with the former, but it would be tough to watch a beaten-up Woods for the next five years try to take on the Rickie Fowlers and Daniel Bergers of the world to no avail.

Most likely: Woods plays five more years with a mostly-stiff (but not injured) back but never wins. After he turns 47 or so, he gives up playing full time other than the Masters and The Open. I'm not sure if this scenario is more likely than him getting injured again (that seems like the safer bet), but I'm trying to stay at least a little optimistic here.

The reality here is that nobody, not even Woods, knows that's going to happen. He said on Tuesday that he's been more fearful mentally than physically because of the surgery.

"The early apprehensions were I started to crank it up, when I got the full-go ... how's that going to look? Is full-go going to be some guy who hits it 240, 250 in the air as full-go? It took me a few days if not a week to really come to grips with 'I don't know what my full-go is going to be.' And then when I finally started to get it to where, 'Hey, I've got a little pop on this thing. OK, I can hit it a little bit harder.' Then I started playing practice rounds with Rickie.

"That was fun to be able to go out there and say I can keep up with him, even sneak a few by him, and the same thing with some other guys. That gave me a lot of confidence to be able to do something like that."

Will that translate the way he wants it to on the course? That remains to be seen. The only thing I'm sure of right now is that the show will be dramatic, and we will all be there for every single minute of it.