Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson could join these exclusive wins clubs over the next few years
How difficult is it to get to 30 PGA Tour wins and six major championships?
By
Kyle Porter
•
3 min read
With the 2021 golf year winding down, it's already time to start looking ahead to 2022. The future in sports is always rife with questions of what could happen and what is feasibly within the realm of possibility. It's fun to dream on the absurd because, well, mostly because thinking about potential outcomes for myriad players and their legacies is always a thrill. But also because, as we saw in 2021 when Phil Mickelson won the PGA Championship at the age of 50, nobody has any idea exactly what is going to happen in this sport.
As I go back through some of what happened in 2021, I'm fixated on a variety of possibilities for 2022, but one of the foremost I came across is the idea of a few made-up clubs that I completely pulled from thin air but tell a fascinating historical story. There are different variations of these clubs, of course, and as the numbers in them get bigger, the membership gets smaller and smaller.
Consider the 20-5 club. That's 20 PGA Tour wins and five major championships. Only 12 men have achieved that in the history of the sport. What about the 30-6 or the 35-7 or the 40-8 club? That's even more rarefied air, and only a handful of contemporary golfers even have a prayer of sniffing those in the years to come.
We could continue on down the line. The 1.5-15 club (1.5 strokes gained per round and at least 15 PGA Tour wins). That includes Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson. Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott barely miss out. Nobody else is in it. That's a pretty exclusive club, partly because it spans just 17 years but also because it's so difficult to maintain those numbers over a long period of time.
Anyway, let's jump back to those PGA Tour wins-major clubs. This popped back up when McIlroy won for the 20th time on the PGA Tour at the CJ Cup at Summit last month. He became the 14th golfer in the 20-4 club, but his goal obviously is to become the 13th golfer in the 20-5 club at some point in 2022. We'll start at that one and roll up from there to see who has the best chance of joining these groups.
20-5 Club
This tells a good story of golf history, especially as it pertains to the PGA Tour. There are no pretenders here -- how could there be? -- and very few golfers poised to join in the years ahead. Here's the list.
| Golfer | PGA Tour Wins | Majors |
|---|---|---|
Byron Nelson | 52 | 5 |
Phil Mickelson | 45 | 6 |
Lee Trevino | 29 | 6 |
Arnold Palmer | 62 | 7 |
Sam Snead | 82 | 7 |
Gene Sarazen | 38 | 7 |
Tom Watson | 39 | 8 |
Gary Player | 24 | 9 |
Ben Hogan | 64 | 9 |
Walter Hagen | 45 | 11 |
Tiger Woods | 82 | 15 |
Jack Nicklaus | 73 | 18 |
McIlroy (20 and 4) can join it with a win at one of the big four events in 2022. Dustin Johnson (24 and 2) can join it as well, but he has to win three of the four majors in 2022, which is not going to happen. What could happen is that he wins three at some point in the next 5-6 years. Brooks Koepka (8 and 4), Jordan Spieth (12 and 3), Justin Thomas (14 and 1), Jon Rahm (6 and 1) and Collin Morikawa (5 and 2) are also candidates.
30-6 Club
Three golfers get knocked off here, and buddy, this is a list. Mickelson, Palmer, Snead, Sarazen, Watson, Hogan, Hagen, Woods and Nicklaus. My gosh.
| Golfer | PGA Tour Wins | Majors |
|---|---|---|
Phil Mickelson | 45 | 6 |
Arnold Palmer | 62 | 7 |
Sam Snead | 82 | 7 |
Gene Sarazen | 38 | 7 |
Tom Watson | 39 | 8 |
Ben Hogan | 64 | 9 |
Walter Hagen | 45 | 11 |
Tiger Woods | 82 | 15 |
Jack Nicklaus | 73 | 18 |
McIlroy, D.J. and Rahm are probably the only golfers currently playing who have a real chance at this. D.J. needs six wins with four of them being majors. Seems unlikely but not impossible at this point in his career. Rahm is probably the most talented golfer with the longest runway in front of him. Six majors is a silly number, though.
40-8 Club
Golf history. Hogan, Hagen, Woods and Nicklaus. Watson missed by a single victory.
| Golfer | PGA Tour Wins | Majors |
|---|---|---|
Ben Hogan | 64 | 9 |
Walter Hagen | 45 | 11 |
Tiger Woods | 82 | 15 |
Jack Nicklaus | 73 | 18 |
Nobody is getting to this. McIlroy would have to replicate his first 11 years as a pro over the next 11 years -- until he turned 43 -- which, I suppose could happen, but seems extremely unlikely.
50-10 Club
A fitting twosome.
| Golfer | PGA Tour Wins | Majors |
|---|---|---|
Tiger Woods | 82 | 15 |
Jack Nicklaus | 73 | 18 |
I'm not sure this will be touched because of how things have shifted in terms of money over the last decade. Partly because guys will probably retire earlier but more so because when an industry is infused with money over a long period of time, it becomes much more competitive. This feels maybe not totally like Cy Young's 511 wins but something close. This club might be closed forever.
