We're down to just one game left in the divisional series round and, boy, has this one been a pleasure. I'm sure that fans of the losing teams thus far would disagree, but as someone without a horse in the race, it's been absolutely exhilarating. Of course, all the unpredictability is fun to watch and difficult to navigate around for gambling purposes. Still, there are avenues to be found. Let's try to grab two of those for this one.
Tigers at Guardians, 1:08 p.m. ET
LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Matthew Boyd
After a regular season in which he very, very likely earned the Cy Young award, Skubal has now thrown 13 scoreless innings with 14 strikeouts while having only allowed seven hits and one walk in the playoffs. If someone wanted to call him the best pitcher in baseball right now, there isn't a strong argument against it other than maybe longevity, but it's been a year and a half of dominance since his injury. The Guardians have seen him for 14 innings this season and managed just one run. Does the quick turnaround since Game 2 help? Sometimes it does, but a pitcher of his caliber can usually overcome this.
Boyd was great in Game 2, given his role. He wasn't Skubal, but that isn't the plan. After yet another day off on Friday, the Guardians can fully lean on their four horsemen in Tim Herrin, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and, of course, Emmanuel Clase. They have by no means been untouchable this series, but they are still as good as it gets and the gameplan shouldn't change.
The play: Guardians +105
Gut feeling here and I realize most people are just gonna ride Skubal -- hence the plus money for us! -- but I think the Guardians saved their season with the comeback in Game 4. Boyd and the bullpen will be nails in this one against the Tigers' offense while the Guardians find a way to scrape across a few runs. Speaking of which ...
The play: Under 6 runs (-120)
Yeah, the under burned us last game, but I don't think the Guardians can score more than three in this game, nor will they need to. A final score of 3-2 is our maximum here and my hunch is it's lower than that.
Prediction: 2-1 Guardians
If you're looking for a player prop, check out José Ramírez. He's the biggest star in the game and after a brief slump, homered in Game 4. He's now had several looks at some of the important parts of the Tigers' bullpen in addition to having gone 4 for 10 (playoffs included) with two doubles against Skubal in the last two seasons. As a switch hitter, he never faces a platoon disadvantage, either.
