The Cubs are a live dog against the Twins, plus other best bets for Wednesday

Wednesday's Hot Ticket revolves around the Athletics

By Tom Fornelli

Sep 1, 2021 at 4:24 pm ET • 5 min read

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So have you been keeping track of the NFL waiver wire today? It's exciting stuff, isn't it? I mean, who doesn't want to spend time poring over NFL transactions to see which team thinks this receiver you've never heard of could be good enough to be sixth on their WR depth chart?

OK, so I do not care, and I'm sorry for taking such a sarcastic, mocking tone there. I'm just amused by the reaction I see to many NFL media types to all the waiver claims made today. I had no idea such moves could garner so many "wow" or "interesting!" reactions, but here we are. It's only natural, I suppose. I mean, the season is getting closer, but there are no more preseason games left, and people need to do something with their time before then, so I guess waiver claims provide an outlet for some of that energy.

So I promise I won't make fun of them for it anymore. At least, not today. I've got way too much stuff to do. So while I do a deep dive on Nsimba Webster, a receiver the Chicago Bears claimed off waivers today. While I do that, you can read these stories.

To the picks!

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Athletics at Tigers, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Athletics -1.5 (-115): You know, there was a time when the Tigers offense got hot and made the team a lot more dangerous than anybody expected. That's part of the reason the Tigers have climbed to third in the AL Central, but the bigger reason for it is that the AL Central is garbage outside of the White Sox. Now those hot bats that had been carrying the Tigers offense have cooled down.

Over the last two weeks, Detroit's wRC+ of 74 is the third-worst in baseball. Only Cincinnati and San Diego have been worse. Tonight the Tigers will face James Kaprielian, who has been better than average for the most part. He sometimes loses command of the strike zone, but Detroit has one of the worst walk rates in baseball, so I'm not sure it'll have a big impact.

Furthermore, Detroit is sending Wily Peralta to the mound. In 62 innings, Peralta has an ERA of 3.63, but it's misleading. His K% of 15% is absurdly low for this day and age, and he has the same walk rate (8.8%) as Kaprielian. He does do an excellent job of getting groundballs, but this is a patient Oakland offense that can force him to get his stuff up in the zone for strikes, and that's where the A's can tag him.

Key Trend: Oakland has won seven of nine against teams with a losing record.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine's John Bollman has won 24.28 units over his last 148 MLB money line plays, and he has a strong money line play available for this game.

💰 The Picks

⚾ MLB

Cubs at Twins, 8:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Cubs (+162) -- The Cubs stink and are only a shell of their former selves, but you know what? They're also volatile. Over the last few weeks, they've shown an ability to hit dingers, as they've posted a HR% of 5.06%, which is behind only Cleveland in that period. Guys you've never heard of, like Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel, are just mashing, and tonight they're facing a Minnesota team that's not exactly covering itself in glory these days, either.

Minnesota sends Joe Ryan to the mound for his MLB debut. Ryan's numbers in Triple-A have been encouraging this season, with a strikeout rate of 36.9% and a walk rate of 6.02%. What worries me is that he's allowed nine home runs in 66 innings, which could be a problem for him against this Cubs lineup that's mashing taters lately. So my numbers are telling me the Cubs are very much a live dog in this spot.

Key Trend: The Twins are only 12-30 in their last 42 games against lefty starters.

🏈 College Football

UAB vs. Jacksonville State, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Jacksonville State +16.5 (-110) -- OK, so it isn't the most exciting game, but it's the only football game on the board tonight. Plus, there is history here, as UAB coach Bill Clark and JSU coach John Grass are longtime friends. They played at Jacksonville State together and have coached together before, too. Tonight they'll be on opposite sidelines, and while UAB is perennially one of the more underrated Group of Five programs, I'm leaning toward the Gamecocks tonight.

Jacksonville State played in the fall and spring, going 10-3 overall and 9-4 ATS. It made a nice run in the FCS playoffs before falling short, and it did this thanks in large part to an explosive offense led by former Clemson QB Zerrick Cooper. Cooper and company offer enough explosive play potential to have me believe they'll keep this one respectable and stay within the number.

Key Trend: UAB went 1-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite last season.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Both the Advanced Computer Model and SportsLine's John Bollman are on the same side of the money line in tonight's game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox.

🏈 Fantasy Football

Wednesday night is our annual Fantasy Football Today Draft-A-Thon, where CBSSports.com's excellent fantasy team helps prepare you for the fantasy league season. For six hours tonight, our team and over 30 industry guests will be sharing all the fantasy information you'll ever need on both YouTube and CBS Sports HQ. And what's even better is they'll be raising money for St. Jude's the entire time.

So you can help yourself and others just by tuning in. And since we're in the fantasy football mood, I figured it only fits that I share some of my fantasy football rankings for the upcoming season with you.

Note: when I say value, I mean compared to their current average draft position (ADP)

My Favorite Value QBs