The four biggest plays of the Rangers' Game 1 win over Blue Jays
The Rangers surprised the host Blue Jays 5-3 in Game 1 of the ALDS on Thursday. Here are the plays that made the difference.
By
Dayn Perry
•
1 min read
On Thursday, the Rangers took Game 1 of the ALDS by topping the host Blue Jays 5-3 (box score). Here, via the win expectancy chart, is how the needle moved over the course of those nine innings ...
Source: FanGraphsNow let's get into some specifics about the plays that made the difference in Game 1 in Toronto. The biggest of all? Robinson Chirinos' two-run shot in the fifth off David Price ...
That made the score 4-1, and in doing so Chirinos improved the Rangers chances of winning by 16.3 percent -- easily the biggest single jump of any play in Game 1. Not bad for a single swing.
In second place, we have Jose Bautista's no-doubter to lead off the seventh ...
Obviously, the Jays went on to lose, but this homer, which brought the powerful Jays within a single run, improved their chances of winning by a healthy 13.8 percent. As you know, though, the Jays weren't able to draw any closer.
Oh, by the way, right after Bautista's clout, Edwin Encarnacion came perilously close to tying it up ...
Game of hairsbreadths, this baseball of ours.
The third biggest difference-maker in Game 1? It's Rougned Odor's line-drive homer in the seventh, which came after he'd already been plunked twice and which gave Texas an insurance run ...
That improved the Rangers' chances by 13.3 percent, which, as you can see in the chart at top, pushed their win expectancy to 80.5 percent. They made good on that, as it turned out.
Now here's an early RBI single by Adrian Beltre that staked the Rangers to an early 2-0 lead. Note that Beltre willed this single despite some severe lower back pain -- pain that, as you'll see, forced him from the game despite his wishes ...
That single increased their chances of winning by 9.7 percent. Not a bad parting shot by the great Beltre in Game 1.
Game 2 is Friday back in Toronto and scheduled for 12:45 pm ET.
(Win probability data via FanGraphs game log)
