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The New Orleans Pelicans welcome Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks to town on Friday evening. The Pelicans (6-10) are just 2-8 in the last 10 games, but New Orleans defeated the Washington Wizards in their last outing on Wednesday. Milwaukee is 11-6 on the season, including a 4-4 record on the road. The Bucks have won their last two games and this is the first matchup between the teams this season. Lonzo Ball (ankle) is questionable for this matchup. 

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Arena. The latest Bucks vs. Pelicans odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Milwaukee as a seven-point favorite, while the over-under for total points expected is set at 230. Before entering any Pelicans vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it is also on a stunning 69-40 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Pelicans. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Pelicans vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Pelicans spread: Bucks -7
  • Bucks vs. Pelicans over-under: 230 points
  • Bucks vs. Pelicans money line: Bucks -280, Pelicans +240
  • MIL: The Bucks are 4-5-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • NOP: The Pelicans are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Bucks can cover

The Bucks are more of an offense-first team this season, leading the NBA in offensive efficiency and landing second in effective field goal percentage, but Milwaukee's defense remains potent. Mike Budenholzer's team is allowing only 108.8 points per 100 possessions, with a top-10 defensive rebound rate (75.1 percent) and a top-three mark in keeping their opponents off the free throw line. 

The Bucks also excel in a few situations, leading the NBA in fast break points allowed (8.5 per game) and ranking second in points allowed in the paint (40.1 per game). The Pelicans are fourth-worst in the league in ball security offensively, committing a turnover on 16.1 percent of possessions, and that could feed into Milwaukee's transition offense. New Orleans also ranks near the bottom of the league in shooting efficiency allowed and turnover creation offensively, leaving the Bucks with several matchup edges.

Why the Pelicans can cover

New Orleans is led by a one-two punch offensively with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Both are averaging 23.9 points per game to this point in the season, with Williamson contributing 7.5 rebounds per game and Ingram adding 5.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists per contest. As a team, the Pelicans succeed on the offensive glass, securing 29.8 percent of their own missed shots, and New Orleans is a top-five team in free throw creation rate. 

Defensively, New Orleans is dominant on the glass, leading the NBA with a 76.3 percent defensive rebound rate. The Pelicans are also a top-five team in protecting the paint, allowing only 41.8 points per game near the rim, and the Bucks are just 24th in the NBA at creating free throw attempts offensively.

How to make Bucks vs. Pelicans picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with the teams projected to combine for 221 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Pelicans vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Pelicans vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.