Can Tyrese Maxey and the 76ers continue their domination of the Bulls? Plus, other best bets for Monday

Maxey has 20 assists in three games against Chicago this season

By Tom Fornelli

Mar 7, 2022 at 4:34 pm ET • 5 min read

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Today is the start of the best part of the college basketball season. Honestly, I know I'm in the minority here, but while the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is the best part of the season, I think conference championship week is better than the final two weekends of the NCAA tournament. That same endless amount of action that makes the first four days of the NCAA Tournament incredible will happen all week.

Monday night's slate is more of an appetizer to start the meal, but beginning on Tuesday, we will have a full day's worth of win-or-go-home college basketball games through the rest of the week. It's glorious. That's why if you ever want to plan a trip with friends to go to Las Vegas for the NCAA Tournament, you should plan it for championship week instead. You'll get more games to sweat in the sportsbook, but with smaller crowds.

Trust me; you won't regret it. Nor will you regret reading the following stories.

Now let's start championship week off with some winners, shall we?

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Bulls at Sixers, 7 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

Key Trend: Tyrese Maxey has 20 assists in three games against Chicago this season.
The Pick: Maxey Over 3.5 assists (+120)

As I went over in Friday's newsletter, the Chicago Bulls have not performed well against the best teams in the NBA. Following a loss to Milwaukee in which the Bucks covered just like I told you they would, the Bulls are now 2-14 against teams that have won at least 60% of their games this year and 4-12 ATS. So, if you want to take the Sixers against the spread tonight, I won't attempt to talk you out of it. This season, the Sixers have dominated the Bulls in three meetings, and Joel Embiid has had massive games against them throughout his career. And now Philly has James Harden, which will make the Sixers an even more difficult matchup for Chicago.

Still, while Philly is a reasonable play, there's much more value in this Tyrese Maxey prop. While Embiid and Harden garner all the attention, Maxey has developed into one of the more underappreciated players in the NBA, and, like all the Sixers, he's played well against Chicago.

Maxey has 20 assists in three games against Chicago this season for an average of 6.67 per game. Now, his usage and ball distribution is a little different with James Harden serving as the primary ball-handler in the Sixers offense, but the idea of Maxey managing four assists is well within the range of possibilities tonight. Especially if we're getting that +120 price.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: If you're looking to make a more traditional play tonight, the SportsLine Projection Model has strong leans on both the spread and total.

💰 The Picks

🏀 NBA

Blazers at Wolves, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

The Pick: Blazers +15 (-110) -- Every once in a while, you're forced to make a pick that causes you great pain because, even though you know it's the right pick, you don't want to be invested in the particular game because you don't want to watch it. Believe me, I do not want to watch the Timberwolves and Blazers go at it tonight, and I probably won't. I'll place this bet and then hope the Blazers play so well that I never have to pay attention because the outcome is never in doubt.

More likely, I'll watch the final five minutes of an easy Minnesota win dying with every missed free throw from the ninth guy in Portland's rotation, hoping to stay within 15 points. Whatever. It's not going to be fun, but it's a bet we need to make. Portland stinks, there's no denying it, but the Blazers shouldn't be 15-point dogs to Minnesota. While the Timberwolves have improved a lot this season, they're still pretty middling defensively, and it's difficult to trust mediocre defenses to cover spreads this large against teams that still technically count as NBA teams.

Key Trend: Minnesota has covered the last four meetings in Minnesota so Portland is due!

🏀 College Basketball

Santa Clara at No. 17 St. Mary's, 11:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN2

The Pick: St. Mary's -4.5 (-110) -- On Saturday, Santa Clara began its West Coast Conference tournament with a resounding 91-67 win over Portland. Its reward is a Saint Mary's team that was at home resting all week after beating Gonzaga last Saturday. This isn't great news for Saint Mary's, because the last time these teams met, Santa Clara won 77-72, holding off a furious Gaels rally over the final minutes. It was a strange outcome that night at the Leavey Center because Saint Mary's shot 42.1% from three and averaged 1.06 points per possession -- but couldn't keep up with the red-hot Broncos.

Santa Clara averaged 1.13 points per possession as it shot 55.4% from the field, including 40% from three. Well, I don't think Santa Clara can do that twice. Not against a Saint Mary's defense that ranks ninth in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric. While the Broncos have a more efficient offense than the Gaels, the gap between these teams defensively is too significant for Santa Clara to overcome yet again, and I think the well-rested Gaels might be a bit rusty early but should pull away in the second half and cover this spread.

Key Trend: St. Mary's is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Projection Model's favorite play of the night is in the NBA. Which side of the spread is it taking between the Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks?