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The Memphis Grizzlies aim to bounce back in a pivotal Game 5 matchup on Tuesday in the first round of the 2022 NBA playoffs. Memphis fell to the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 4 over the weekend, allowing the No. 7 seed Wolves to tie the series at 2-2. The Grizzlies have a home-court advantage in Memphis in Game 5, with a pressure-packed environment on all sides. The Grizzlies list Santi Aldama (knee) and Killian Tillie (back) as out. The Wolves report no injuries for Game 5.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Memphis as a six-point favorite at home for this 7:30 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 232.5 in the latest Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies odds. Before making any Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the second full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Wolves vs. Grizzlies, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Grizzlies vs. Wolves:

  • Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves spread: Grizzlies -6 
  • Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves over-under: 232.5 points 
  • Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves money line: Grizzlies -260, Wolves +210 
  • MIN: The Wolves are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games 
  • MEM: The Grizzlies are 4-5-1 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Timberwolves can cover

The Wolves have outperformed pre-series expectations, picking up two victories along the way. Minnesota's upside is quite clear when things are rolling and, if not for a few stretches of inefficiency, the Wolves might have a 3-1 series lead. Anthony Edwards is at the center of the frame for Minnesota, averaging 24.8 points per game on 65.4 percent true shooting in the series. He is flanked by Karl-Anthony Towns, who exploded for 33 points and 14 rebounds in Game 4 after averaging 24.6 points and 9.8 rebounds per game during the regular season. Minnesota is above-average defensively on a per-possession basis, and the Wolves put pressure on opponents. Minnesota led the league in turnovers created (16.3 per game) this season, with top-three marks in steals and blocks. 

On offense, Towns and Edwards pair with D'Angelo Russell and others to churn out efficiency, and the Wolves were a top-eight offensive team in the NBA this season, scoring 113.8 points per 100 possessions. Minnesota made more 3-pointers (14.8 per game) than any other NBA team, and the Wolves were in the top five of the league in second-chance points per game (14.8) and fast break points per game (15.2). With top-eight marks in offensive rebound rate, free throw creatio and assists per game, Minnesota is well-rounded and effective on the offensive end of the floor.

Why the Grizzlies can cover

The Grizzlies are deep and talented, with defense leading the way in this series. Memphis is holding Minnesota to 107.3 points per 100 possessions through four games, and the Grizzlies were No. 6 in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Memphis allowed only 108.9 points per 100 possessions over 82 games, and the Grizzlies led the league in both steals (9.8 per game) and blocks (6.5 per game). The Grizzlies were No. 3 in creating turnovers (15.1 per game), with top-10 marks in field goal percentage allowed and 2-point percentage allowed. 

Memphis is facing a Minnesota defense that was in the bottom five of the NBA in defensive rebound rate, free throw prevention, and assists allowed in 2021-22, and the Grizzlies led the league in offensive rebound rate, second-chance points per game, fast break points per game and points in the paint per game. All told, Memphis was a top-five offensive team in the NBA during the regular season, with strongly above-average marks in free throw creation, assists, assist rate and turnover rate.

How to make Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting a combined 232 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Wolves vs. Grizzlies? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Wolves vs. Grizzlies spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.