Heat star Jimmy Butler might be having the best season of his career, but in one way it's actually his worst
Erik Spoelstra isn't worried about Butler's shooting woes: He has a 'playoff-ready game'
A trap-game loss to the Wizards on Monday night notwithstanding, the Miami Heat are having a special season. The same can be said for Jimmy Butler, who is arguably a top-10 MVP candidate and in the running for an All-NBA and All-Defensive nod. All things considered, you could argue this has been the best season of Butler's career.
And yet, in one specific way, it's also been his worst.
Entering play on Tuesday, Butler is shooting 27.6 percent from 3-point range, which -- unless you insist on counting his rookie season in which he shot 18 percent on just 11 total attempts -- is the worst mark of his career. After a 6-for-10 night from the field against the Wizards, Butler is shooting 43 percent overall, which registers as the second-worst mark of his career, again outside his rookie season when he took fewer than two shots per game.
Per Cleaning the Glass, Butler is shooting 29 percent from the long mid-range, which is the worst clip of his career even counting his rookie season. Even in the short mid-range, where Butler does a lot of his work, he's shooting 38 percent this season. During his first year in Minnesota, Butler shot 50 percent from that range. (To be fair, that was an outlier year).
On all two-pointers, Butler is shooting 47 percent this season, which is the second-worst mark of his career. His 46.0 effective field-goal percentage is also the second-worst mark of his career not counting his rookie season.
Any way you slice it, it's clear Butler is shooting very poorly from the field this season, which is surprising to say the least given the irrefutably terrific season he's having. He's largely making up for the poor shooting, at least on the stat sheet, by getting to the free throw line 9.4 times per game, which is by far a career high.
On Monday in Washington, Butler shot 15 for 19 from the charity stripe en route to 26 points. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra points to Butler's increased free throw attempts, and makes at 83 percent, as the offset of any poor shooting. Beyond that, Spoelstra made it clear he's not concerned in the slightest about Butler's rough shooting so far.
"It's early in the season, it will level out," Spoelstra said. "It's all about efficiency. I don't even look at that field-goal percentage number. If you factor in free throws, his percentage, he is one of the most efficient offensive basketball players in the league -- points per touch, things of that nature. He's extremely efficient. You don't have to know anything about analytics, you just watch him play, it's a very coherent, stable, playoff-ready game. and you darn well know that he has the respect of the opponents that we play against, particularly when you get down the stretch."
There is truth in Spoelstra's free-throw logic. Entering Tuesday, Butler's 57.4 true-shooting percentage, which does factor in free throws, is pretty much right in line with his career numbers. As for Spoelstra calling Butler one of the most efficient players overall, that hasn't necessarily been true so far.
Per Synergy, Butler is scoring 1.003 points per possession this season, which is a good-but-not great mark, 66th percentile in the league. But a big part of that number is happening in transition, where Butler is in the 95th percentile. In terms of his half-court efficiency -- which will become increasingly important in the playoffs when games, and certainly down-the-stretch possessions, tend to slow down -- Butler's 0.92 points per possession only ranks in the 47th percentile league wide.
Spoelstra's belief that Butler's traditional shooting numbers will correct by the end of the season is probably true. He's getting the shots he wants, from the spots he wants, and Butler has clearly gone out of his way through the first third of the season to prioritize getting his teammates involved, almost treating his own scoring as an afterthought, and that has worked wonders for the Miami offense.
When it's winning time, Butler becomes a more aggressive scorer. Entering Tuesday, his 3.8 points per game in clutch situations -- defined as a five-point game within the final five minutes -- ranks fifth among all qualifying players, and his 119.8 clutch offensive rating is nearly identical to Kawhi Leonard.
But again, it's not the shooting that's getting it done. Even with those glitzy efficiency numbers, Butler is only shooting 32 percent from the field and 21 percent from 3 in clutch situations. Those percentages rank 208th and 134th league wide, respectively, among all players averaging at least two clutch points per game.
I love Spoelstra's point about the coherency and stability of Butler's game. It's so true, and so well described. Everything about Butler's game is so solid. Nothing is forced. He plays at his own pace and rarely deviates from it. He almost never gets moved off his spots and seems to always have leverage as a penetrator. He's almost surgical the way he's reading the floor and picking his spots.
And it all feels so replicable, like he can do it every time down the floor. There's nothing matchup-based or circumstantial about the way he gets to where he's going. You know you can count on it. That kind of reliability is what makes a coach sleep at least a little bit better come playoff time, and Butler has it in spades.
But he's still going to have to start making some more shots. The Heat have a ton of 3-point shooters, so Butler's covered, in a way, to live more in the mid-range as a playmaker while looking to score at the rim and by getting to the line. But depending on calls in the playoffs is a dicey proposition. Ask James Harden. There comes a time when you have to knock down shots, when Jimmy Free Throw has to turn back into Jimmy Buckets.
There's no reason to think he won't, but so far, the numbers are what they are. They're perhaps the only smudge on Butler's otherwise pretty flawless stat sheet. Nobody's worried about it right now, rightfully. The Heat are winning, and the one thing Butler isn't doing, the rest of the Heat are. As a team, Miami has the second-highest 3-point mark in the league at 39.1 percent, per Cleaning the Glass.
It really is an almost perfect blend of personnel and style with the Heat. Everyone complements one another, and the system complements them all. When Butler was in Philadelphia, shooting 27 percent from 3 would've been a far bigger problem. He was one of the only capable shooters on that team. Spacing was already a huge issue.
Miami's spacing is pretty impeccable, and they have weapons all over. Butler is covered in that way, and in so many other ways he's the one doing the covering. Still, it's notable that in perhaps Butler's best season to date, for all intents and purposes he's shooting worse than he ever has. It's certainly something to at least keep an eye on.
















