It's time to take advantage of tanking in the NBA, plus other best bets for Thursday

You might be surprised by how often betting results follow the most basic logic in late-season NBA games

By Tom Fornelli

Feb 24, 2022 at 4:41 pm ET • 5 min read

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The NBA returns to action tonight, and it also returns to this newsletter. This is when the NBA becomes a lot simpler -- I won't say easier -- to handicap because there's less variance from night to night. The trade deadline has passed, and the buyout market is sorting itself out. We also see fewer players taking "rest" days and missing games as the playoff teams begin to jockey for position. The teams playing for draft picks fall off, too (SPOILER ALERT: we're looking to take advantage of this tonight).

That's good news for all of you who prefer the NBA to college basketball and have been asking me when I'm going to start including more NBA games in this newsletter. Of course, I only have one NBA play in the letter tonight with more college basketball, but I promise you'll see more regular NBA action here from now until the end of the playoffs.

You'll also continue seeing plenty of college basketball action. As for MLB, well, that's not my call at the moment.

Now let's welcome the NBA back with some winners.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Cavaliers at Pistons, 7 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

The Pick: Cavs -6 (-110): The NBA returns tonight, so why not welcome it by betting on a good team against what could be the worst team in the league? Cleveland has been one of the bigger surprises of the NBA season and enters tonight's festivities tied with Philadelphia and Milwaukee for third in the Eastern Conference. I'm sure we all saw that coming at the beginning of the season!

Maybe we should have. After all, if you ask LeBron James, Cleveland had three All-Stars this week (Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland and LeBron), which is more than anybody else in the Eastern Conference. Jokes aside, this Cleveland performance has not been a fluke. According to most advanced metrics, they've earned their spot all season, and they currently have a higher net rating than everybody in the East besides Boston and Miami.

Tonight they'll face the team with the lowest net rating in the NBA. Detroit is 13-45 and well on its way to another top pick in the draft to pair with Cade Cunningham. In other words, this is a team that is more interested in the future than the present, and while we see NBA teams "tank" all the time, it's the last portion of the regular season in which the proper tanking begins. We end up with a situation where we have a team with all the reason in the world to win (Cleveland) going against a team that doesn't gain much from victory (Detroit), and you might be surprised by how often betting results follow the most basic logic in late-season NBA games.

Key Trend: The Cavs have covered six of the last eight meetings.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The SportsLine Projection Model has a strong lean on the spread tonight as well, but does it agree with me or think I'm an idiot? Could it be both?

💰 The Picks

🏀 College basketball

No. 22 Ohio State at No. 15 Illinois, 9 p.m. | TV: FS1

The Pick: Ohio State +6 (-110) -- This is a huge game in the Big Ten tonight. Illinois needs a win to keep pace with Purdue and Wisconsin in the race for the regular-season title, while Ohio State needs to win to keep its regular-season title hopes alive. What might be even more important to Ohio State -- the odds of it passing Illinois, Wisconsin and Purdue are slim -- is its ability to hold onto that fourth seed in the Big Ten Tournament and the byes that come with it. A loss in Champaign leaves the door open for Rutgers and Iowa to sneak in.

And I like Ohio State's chances. Over the last few years, as Brad Underwood has transformed Illinois from a Big Ten also-ran to one of the conference's best teams, Ohio State has been a thorn in the side of the Illini. Particularly Illinois native E.J. Liddell. In four career matchups against the Illini, Liddell has averaged 18.5 points and 7.3 rebounds. Coming off of two sub-par (for him) performances, I suspect that Liddell will put up a monster performance tonight to keep the Buckeyes in the game at a minimum.

Key Trend: The underdog has covered eight of the last 10 meetings.

No. 12 UCLA at Oregon, 9:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Oregon +3 (-110) -- Oregon has been a headache for me all season. I'm sure Oregon fans feel the same way. This team began the year 7-6 overall and with losses to two of the Pac-12's weakest teams in Arizona State and Stanford to dig themselves an 0-2 hole in conference play. Then the Ducks seemingly figured things out, winning 10 of 11 -- including a win over UCLA -- to improve to 16-7 overall and 9-3 in the Pac-12. Three losses in the last four have followed, including a loss to 11-17 California and another loss to 10-16 Arizona State.

How the hell are we supposed to figure this team out? Well, we probably won't, but my numbers tell me that regardless of the rollercoaster, the Ducks shouldn't be three-point dogs at home to UCLA tonight, especially if UCLA is without Tyger Campbell again. I don't think Oregon's overtime win over UCLA earlier this season was a fluke, as the Ducks have the size and length that can give UCLA problems. The Ducks might not get the season sweep over the Bruins, but they will make life difficult tonight.

Key Trend: UCLA is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Our strongest play of the night is between the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks, as the SportsLine Projection Model and SportsLine experts Mike Barner and Matt Severance are all in agreement.