The Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons have split two games this season, each winning at home. The teams face off for a third time on Saturday at 5 p.m. ET in Cleveland with different motivations. Each team has won three of four, with Detroit (29-31) sitting in the No. 7 spot in the East, just behind the Nets and just in front of the Magic and Hornets. Cleveland (15-47) is way out of the playoff race but has taken three of four. The latest Pistons vs. Cavaliers odds show Detroit as an 8.5-point favorite, up 2.5 points from the opening line. The over-under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored, is set at 214. Before locking in any Pistons vs. Cavaliers picks or any NBA predictions for Saturday, you'll want to first see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 20 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 222-169 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 20 on a blistering 46-32 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has dialed in on Pistons vs. Cavaliers. We can tell you it is leaning under, but it's also showing a pick against the spread that cashes in 70 percent of simulations, indicating the line is way off in this one. That pick is available exclusively at SportsLine.

The Pistons are getting hot at the right time, on a 7-2 stretch and in the hunt for the No. 6 seed in the East. One of the big keys is Detroit takes care of the teams it's supposed to take care of, going 11-6 ATS against teams with under .450 win percentages. While neither team ranks in the top 20 in scoring, the Cavaliers are just as bad defending the ball, while the Pistons hang their hat on it. Detroit's 108.1 ppg allowed ranks ninth. Cleveland's 49 percent shooting allowed is dead-last.

But just because Detroit has motivation doesn't guarantee it will cover the Pistons vs. Cavaliers spread. 

The Cavs are playing for pride, but they've done a much better job at it since Kevin Love returned from injury. Cleveland is 4-1 since Love has fully returned from injury. The last four games, without a minutes restriction, he's averaging 23 points and 10.8 rebounds.

The home team has covered in nine of the last 11 meetings, and Detroit is on a 0-5 ATS streak in Cleveland. The Cavs have also held their own against teams with losing records, covering in four straight.

Who wins Cavaliers vs. Pistons? And which side of the spread can you bank on in 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Cavs vs. Pistons spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $4,000 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.