The one NBA bet you should make tonight, plus the Yankees and Red Sox are finally facing each other

Stay away from the spread and total on the Clippers-Mavs game

By Tom Fornelli

Jun 4, 2021 at 4:20 pm ET • 5 min read

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I know that it's Friday, and you want to get on with your weekend, but please allow me a moment to take you on a trip back in time. We're going all the way back to last night when the Suns eliminated LeBron James and the Lakers from the playoffs. It was the fourth quarter, and the Lakers, who had been trailing the entire night after a hot start from the Suns, had cut the lead to 10 points with 8:06 left to play.

You got the sense that this was it. This was the moment when LeBron James was going to be LeBron James, and bully his way into the lane repeatedly, get foul calls and will the Lakers to victory. But, instead, Chris Paul made a jumper to extend the lead back to 12, and then after a bad pass by Kyle Kuzma that resulted in a turnover, LeBron James did a strange thing: He stayed back on defense and motioned to the Lakers bench that he was tired and needed to come out of the game. He did.

Frank Vogel sent Talen Horton-Tucker in for him. The Suns would extend the lead back to 17 before the Lakers called a timeout and LeBron returned.

Now, as I wrote yesterday when we took the under on LeBron's points, assists and rebounds total, he's not 100%, and he needs an offseason to recover. That said, when it comes to the unwinnable debate of LeBron vs. Michael Jordan, all I'll say is try to imagine Michael Jordan asking to sit during the fourth quarter of an elimination game because he's tired.

He wouldn't. And that's one of the reasons why, as great as LeBron is -- and he is great! -- I'll never consider him better than Michael Jordan. I think he'd beat MJ in a game of one-on-one because I don't know how Michael would guard him, but he'll never be Jordan. Not when he's asking to come out of the game because he's tired.

All right, we've only got one NBA game on the docket tonight, so let's get to that and a couple of MLB bets.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Clippers at Mavericks, 9 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Reggie Jackson Over 2.5 3pt FG (-115): I'll fully admit that I have not had a solid read on this series as far as the game results. I've told you to take the Clippers twice, and they've not only failed to cover the spread, but they lost too. So, tonight, I'm staying away from the spread and the total.

Instead, I'll focus on individual props, as I've been having a lot more success with them during these playoffs.

During the regular season, Reggie Jackson had a specific role with the Clippers. He was there to defend and take some shots when the chance arose. It was a role he filled well, shooting 43.3% from three on the season while attempting 4.2 per game. Well, that volume has increased dramatically in this series.

Jackson is attempting 8.2 threes per game through the first five games, and he's shooting 39%, making 3.2 per game. After going 0-for-3 in the first game, Jackson has gone 16-for-38 (42.1%) and averaged 4.0 threes per game. The first game of the series was the only one in which he didn't make at least three. The Mavs have been daring Clippers who aren't named Kawhi or Paul George to beat them, and Jackson's pulled his weight. I think that continues tonight, whether the Clippers stay alive or not.

Key Trend: Jackson has made at least three threes in four of the five games in the series.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: For tonight's game, the Advanced Computer Model has a sturdy lean on the total, while expert handicapper Matt Severance finds excellent value on a money line play.

💰 The Picks

⚾ MLB

Red Sox at Yankees, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Over 9 (-120) -- Long-time subscribers know how significant a factor the weather can be for different ballparks. Some parks play bigger in certain conditions, while others might play smaller with the same conditions. Well, tonight in New York, where the Yankees and Red Sox are meeting for the first time all season, the forecast is calling for a high-scoring game. The pitching matchup helps a bit, too.

Nathan Eovaldi has pitched better than his ERA suggests, but he's had some luck when it comes to fly balls staying in the park, and I'm not sure he can sustain that, particularly against this lineup. Michael King starts for the Yankees, and, while he hasn't given up many dingers in 22 innings, he doesn't miss many bats and has a walk rate of 10.2%. That doesn't bode well!

Key Trend: There aren't a lot of trends to support this play, but the over is 10-8 in Boston's divisional games this season. That's something, right?!

Reds at Cardinals, 8:15 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Over 8.5 (-105) -- This one is similar to the Yankees-Red Sox game. The forecast for tonight is calling for temps in the mid-80s with the wind blowing out to left. Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo doesn't give up a lot of hard contact, but the ball tends to carry when he does. On the other hand, St. Louis' Kwang-Hyun Kim doesn't miss many bats and doesn't get many groundballs. Put it all together, and that total of 8.5 starts looking low.

Key Trend: The over is 5-2-2 in the last nine meetings.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: If you're looking for some action to get you through the weekend, MMA expert Ian Parker has revealed his top selections for Saturday's UFC card in Las Vegas.