Paul George and the Oklahoma City Thunder host Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday night, with tipoff from the Chesapeake Energy Arena set for 8 p.m. ET. Both teams have struggled lately with 4-6 records in their last 10 games. The Thunder have fallen from the No. 3 seed all the way to the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference, while Indiana holds a 1.5-game lead over the Boston Celtics for the No. 4 seed in the East. Oklahoma City is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Grizzlies, and another defeat on Wednesday would drop them to the No. 8 seed. The Thunder are listed as 6.5-point home favorites, while the over-under for total points is 217 in the latest Pacers vs Thunder odds. Before you make any Pacers vs. Thunder picks and NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 24 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 268-206 record on all top-rated picks, returning over $4,700 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 24 on a strong 65-48 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Pacers vs.Thunder. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.

The model is aware of how important home court advantage is in this matchup. The Thunder have a 23-12 record at Chesapeake Energy Arena and have covered the spread in 50 percent of their home games. Indiana, meanwhile, has been brutal against-the-spread on the road, only covering 38.9 percent of the time, the second-worst mark in the NBA.

Russell Westbrook has been better in OKC this year too, averaging more points, rebounds, and assists on his home court. He's averaging 25 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists over his last three and put up a triple-double against this same Pacers team just two weeks ago.

But just because Indiana has struggled on the road doesn't mean Oklahoma City will cover the Thunder vs. Pacers spread on Wednesday.

The model is also well aware that OKC is just 1-5 against-the-spread in six games over the last two weeks, which includes an 0-3 record at Chesapeake Energy Arena. 

The Pacers have not had a good March, but are coming off a 36-point victory over the Nuggets -- a game that Indiana was an underdog in. Domantas Sabonis put up his 26th double-double of the season against Denver and was even better against OKC a couple weeks ago. Sabonis dropped 26 points and seven rebounds against his former team and could provide a needed spark for the Pacers again on Wednesday.

In addition to unexpected output from Sabonis, Indiana will likely benefit from the return of Darren Collison, who missed the last three games with a quad issue. Collison was averaging 15 points and seven assists in the four games prior to injury, including a 17-point, six-rebound, seven-assist performance against the Thunder.

So who wins Pacers vs. Thunder? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Pacers vs. Thunder spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.