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James Harden makes his much-anticipated return Thursday for the Houston Rockets against the surging Minnesota Timberwolves in a prime-time showdown. The NBA's scoring leader (32.3 points per game) is expected back from a hamstring injury and will reportedly be limited to 25 minutes.

The Rockets are listed as five-point sporstbook favorites and the over-under for total points scored is posted at 224.

Before you lock in your bets, you need to see what SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein has to say. In the past two seasons, the veteran handicapper is 22-11 against the spread in games involving the Timberwolves and 22-15 in games involving the Rockets.

This adds up to a combined 44-26-2 between the two teams.

Now, Hartstein has evaluated every angle of Timberwolves-Rockets and locked in a strong pick. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Hartstein knows that the Rockets went 4-3 without Harden, the MVP candidate who, in addition to his scoring punch, is third in the league in assists at 9.2. He had missed just two games over the previous three seasons.

Houston will be eager to get back on track after it suffered a 113-102 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, point guard Chris Paul's former team, in its last outing.

The Rockets clearly missed the offensive production of Harden, as they scored just 46 second-half points and shot 40.4 percent for the game.

Houston is 4-1 against the spread after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game and 5-2 ATS against Northwest Division opponents.

Hartstein also knows the Timberwolves surged to the top of the Northwest standings on the strength of a five-game homestand in which they won and covered each contest.

But they had a letdown Tuesday, falling 108-102 to an Orlando Magic team that had lost seven straight. The worst rebounding team in the league had a 51-37 edge on the boards against Minnesota. Jimmy Butler had 28 points, while Karl-Anthony Towns had 15 points and 12 rebounds.

Minnesota has dominated this series of late, with five straight point-spread covers in Houston, and the road team is on a 6-2 ATS run in this series.

So who should you back in Timberwolves-Rockets? And how much should James Harden's return affect your decision? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Timberwolves-Rockets you should be all over on Thursday, all from the expert who's 22-11 on Timberwolves games.