Today's Top Picks: Two best bets from Jazz-Hawks plus an NBA underdog to jump all over on Thursday
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Cards on the table, you probably shouldn't bet on the games you actually want to watch tonight. The Lakers seem determined to take their decision on Anthony Davis down to the wire ahead of their heavyweight clash with the Milwaukee Bucks, and the Clippers have so many banged up role players that it's just too hard to get a read on what to expect out of them against the Rockets tonight.
So instead, I'll offer you an alternative: bet on the undercard. Make money on the lesser games and enjoy the great ones. And so, we'll be focusing on the games that don't involve championship contenders tonight.
All lines via William Hill.
1. Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks: Jazz -6.5
Something is brewing in the Atlanta clubhouse right now. Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports detailed the lack of leadership and accountability present in Atlanta yesterday, and having covered Tuesday's 143-120 shellacking by the New York Knicks in person, there was a definite sense of dejection and hopelessness surrounding the team.
Of course, locker room problems themselves are not a good enough reason to bet against a team. Fortunately, there is plenty more to chew on here. The Jazz have won four of their past five, and there is an argument to be made that they are better off without Mike Conley for the time being. While their overall numbers with Donovan Mitchell on the floor and Conley off it are murky, their most-used lineup of Mitchell, Royce O'Neale, Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles and Rudy Gobert crushes opponents by over 10 points per 100 possessions. It's not hard to see why. Ingles can run more pick-and-roll with Conley off the floor, and the lineup is loaded with shooting. When Mitchell and Conley are off the floor together, the Jazz have somehow destroyed opponents by 16.4 points per 100 possessions. That will come in handy when Trae Young sits, which is when the Hawks typically crater.
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2. Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks: Over 226
Most of the same logic above applies here, but with a few added caveats. The Jazz won't be bogged down by Conley's poor shooting. The Hawks have gone over this total in 10 of their past 14 games, and their coach has spoken openly about a lack of communication on defense, which is extremely problematic against a Quin Snyder offense that involves plenty of movement and set plays. Until the Hawks right the ship, relying on their defense is foolish.
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3. Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs: Nets +3
San Antonio's record has started to even off in recent weeks. The Spurs are 3-3 in December and have seemingly settled in as a slightly below-.500 team, but the truth is that things are likely going to get worse again pretty quickly. All three of their wins this month have needed overtime, and they are still being outscored by 6.5 points per 100 possessions this month despite the .500 record. They've already lost to the Nets once in December, and their ground-bound big men are a horrible matchup for Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan in the pick-and-roll. I'm grabbing the points here. Either this is a close win for the Spurs, or it's a loss.
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