What the Warriors must do to beat the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals
Here's what has to happen for Golden State to repeat as champs
By
Matt Moore
•
5 min read
The Golden State Warriors are back in the Finals, against a familiar opponent -- the Cleveland Cavaliers. The two faced off for the NBA championship last season, but the series has just enough new wrinkles to make it interesting while retaining enough similar elements to last year's 4-2 Warriors victory to make it seem familiar.
The Warriors are minus-210 to win the series via sportsbook TheGreek.com, and are considered heavy favorites. (Our writers took Golden State unanimously.) SportsLine projects the Warriors to win 77.7 percent of the time, and in five games a startling 28 percent of the time.
So it seems pre-determined -- as it has been since the start of the season -- that the Warriors would repeat as champs. But that's why they play the games. So what has to happen for the Warriors to defend their title?
The Golden State Warriors will win the NBA Finals if ...
STEPH AND KLAY MAKE ALL THEIR SHOTS
In wins this postseason, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson combined to shoot 54 percent from the field and 47 percent from 3-point range. In losses, they shot just 42 percent from the field and 32 percent from 3-point range.
It's never that simple ... but this is actually pretty simple. Whether you think it's about the space they create when they're playing well -- and healthy -- or the looks they get when the Warriors play better as a team, the result is pretty clear, and that variance is notably (if not statistically significantly) greater than other Warriors players.
(Of note, the Warriors took 29 percent of their 3-point shots with a defender more than four feet away --classified as 'open' by NBA.com -- and 28 percent of their 3-point shots with a defender the same distance away in losses. So it really didn't matter how well guarded they were, but those numbers also don't account for rhythm. It is interesting, though.)
The Cavaliers have an offense with enough firepower to sustain against the Warriors. Whereas the Thunder were built around two elite scoring forces, but lacked 3-point shooting, the Cavaliers have one elite playmaking force in LeBron James, and then superb shooters all around. The Cavaliers, from a roster-design standpoint, seem to have put their money down on being able to hang with the Warriors offensively. The problem is that even if that happens, and even if the Cavaliers play amazing defense -- better than they have this entire season -- the Warriors will still win if Curry and Thompson just knock down all the crazy, off-balance, unbelievable shots that define them at this point in their careers.
THEY DON'T TURN THE BALL OVER
The Warriors gave up 13.9 points per game off turnovers in their wins this postseason. That number jumps to 18.0 in their losses. It's not turnovers that have hurt them, it's the kind of turnovers. If they throw risky, silly passes that the opponent can turn into run-outs, that hurts their efficiency and kind of stalls their high-gear to a degree.
The Warriors thrive in chaos, in part because they manage to make inefficient situations efficient. But live-ball turnovers turn chaos against them, and deflate their energy. Run-outs are obviously bad. But the Thunder's biggest success in Games 3 and 4 came when they constantly turned the pace against the Warriors. The Cavaliers are going to try and grind out games to a large degree (they have the lowest pace of any team in the playoffs). But if they can run off those turnovers, and the Warriors give up a significant number of them, that will plague them.
However, even if the Warriors slip up and give up a high number in two out of three games, they can correct that by simply not doing dumb things. So if the Warriors just play smart, they'll be a long way toward winning their second title.
THE DEATH LINEUP DOES ITS THING
The Thunder did as good of a job of pushing the Warriors' Death Lineup of Curry, Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green off the floor with their own smallball lineup. However, to Steve Kerr's credit, he stuck with it and kept hammering OKC with it until eventually, their skill won out. Instead of viewing it as a matchup problem he needed to make adjustments for, Kerr saw it as an execution issue with the particular players. They played better, and the lineup did its usual thing.
The Death Lineup was only on the floor for one game against the Cavaliers in the regular season. Granted, it was outscored by 45 points per 100 possessions in that stint, but hey, just one game!
The Cavaliers have played with smallball lineups featuring Kevin Love or Channing Frye during the playoffs, and they've been successful, as everything the Cavs have tried for the most part has been successful. But there's a huge issue with those lineups vs. the Warriors: they have the mobility to guard those centers on the perimeter, and the strength to out-rebound them. Cleveland has almost no visible advantage trying to go small.
If the Warriors' best lineup just does its thing for however long it's on the floor, unless Ty Lue has an unexpected counter in him, the Cavs are likely to struggle.
THEY SLOW DOWN LEBRON LIKE LAST YEAR
LeBron James' performances in the Finals were incredible. Playing 40-plus minutes per game, handling the responsibilities of primary scorer, defender, playmaker and floor general, James' performance was one for the ages.
However, LeBron shot just 42 percent from the field and 32 percent from 3-point range. The Warriors threw multiple layers of defense at James last year and it wore him down over the course of the Finals. They won't be able to commit as many resources to him given the presence of Love and Irving, but the basic concepts are the same. Andre Iguodala will guard him in the post, force him to the middle, and a second defender will be there to help over and contest him at the rim.
That'll leave shooters open from time to time, but it will also create turnovers as the Warriors will jump the passing lanes to the perimeter more than Atlanta did. As long as Iguodala can remain out of foul trouble and play his usual brand of terrific defense, and the Warriors' perimeter defender remains ready to contest, they can degrade James' impact. And once that happens, the Cavaliers are very beatable.
