2025 AFC North futures: What our projection model says about betting the Bengals, Browns, Ravens and Steelers

The SportsLine Projection Model sees two value plays in the AFC North division winner odds

Last year, the Baltimore Ravens needed all 18 weeks of the regular season to win the AFC North. Trailing the Pittsburgh Steelers by two games entering Week 15, the Ravens won their last four games—while the Pittsburgh lost its last four—to win their second straight division title.

This season Baltimore (13-6) is the clear favorite to win the division again. Lamar Jackson & Co. are -135 favorites to reign in the AFC North, ahead of the Bengals (+230), Steelers (+600) and Browns (+3000).

However, those odds could change drastically if a currently unemployed future Hall of Fame quarterback lands in the division. Aaron Rodgers is mulling over his options for next season, and all signs point to Pittsburgh being a logical landing spot.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, already has crunched the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has projections on each team's win total and chances to win the division, the AFC and the Super Bowl. And based on the odds being offered at sportsbooks, there is value to be had.

AFC North division futures and model projections

Team	Model div sim%	Implied model odds	Best market odds
Baltimore Ravens	68.2%	-214	-135 (BetMGM, Caesars)
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.5%	+471	+600 (BetMGM)
Cincinnati Bengals	14.2%	+604	+230 (DraftKings, FanDuel)
Cleveland Browns	0.1%	+99900	+3000 (BetMGM, DraftKings)

The SportsLine Projection Model says the Ravens win the AFC North a little more than two-thirds of the time, which makes the -135 being offered at multiple sportsbooks a value. However, the best value on a team to win the division may be on the Steelers, whom the model gives a 17.5% chance. BetMGM has Pittsburgh at +600, well over the model's fair odds of +471. 

With the model relatively high on the Ravens and Steelers, it is low on the Bengals and Browns. Neither team offers value in the division winner market.

Baltimore Ravens futures

• Win total model projection: 11.5
• Best market win total odds: Over 11.5 (+100, Caesars)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 92.5% (-1233)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: -450 (Caesars)
• Model sim% to win AFC: 25.6% (+291)
• Best market odds to win AFC: +360 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 14.6% (+585)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +700 (all sportsbooks)

The model sees value across the board on the Ravens. Perhaps the best market is the AFC Championship market, which is offering +360 on Baltimore when the projections say that +291 is value. The Super Bowl market offers similar value, at +700, when the model says that +585 is fair. The simulations give the Ravens a 92.5% chance to make the playoffs and say that the -450 price is more than fair, but a bettor has to risk $450 to win $100 and tie up that money for several months.

Pittsburgh Steelers futures

• Win total model projection: 9.1
• Best market win total odds: Over 8.5 (+110, DraftKings, FanDuel)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 54.5% (-120)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: +152 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win AFC: 4.6% (+2074)
• Best market odds to win AFC: +2200 (BetMGM)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 1.9% (+5163)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +4000 (BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel)

The model is bullish on the Steelers this season. It projects Pittsburgh to win 9.1 games, and bettors currently are getting +110 at DraftKings and FanDuel at Over 8.5. The best value, however, comes in Pittsburgh to make the playoffs, at +152, when the projections say that anything at -120 or better is fair. There is even a slight edge on the Steelers to win the AFC, at +2200, according to the model. The only market that the numbers do not like is the Super Bowl market. The model would need at least +5163 on Pittsburgh, but the best price is only +4000.

Cincinnati Bengals futures

• Win total model projection: 8.9
• Best market win total odds: Under 9.5 (+125, BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 48.5% (+106)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: -162 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win AFC: 4.5% (+2122)
• Best market odds to win AFC: +1000 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 1.9% (+5163)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +2000 (DraftKings, FanDuel)

The model projections don't love the Bengals this season, so the best market is the season win total. The model projects 8.9 wins, and BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel are all offering +125 on Under 9.5 wins. Also, if a sportsbook is offering a price on Cincinnati to not make the playoffs, that could offer value. The projections say to stay away from the playoff, AFC and Super Bowl markets with the Bengals.

Cleveland Browns futures

• Win total model projection: 4.6
• Best market win total odds: Under 5.5 (-125, Caesars)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 1.3% (+7592)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: +800 (Caesars)
• Model sim% to win AFC: 0% (N/A)
• Best market odds to win AFC: +13000 (DraftKings)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 0% (N/A)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +28000 (FanDuel)

The 2025 season figures to be a trying one in Cleveland, at least if the model is correct. The numbers say that the Browns win just 4.6 games this year (they won just three last season), which makes Under 5.5 wins (-125) a fair play. However, the projections say that anything less than +7592 on Cleveland to make the playoffs isn't fair, and the best price falls well shy of that, at +800. The model also says that the Browns have a 0% chance of winning the AFC or Super Bowl, which means no price would be worth playing.